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芬兰职业体育分析师,已从业20年
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An interesting match in Russia!

2023-05-07

比赛分析

俄超

已完赛

星期日2023-05-07 19:00

解读理由

FK Nizhny Novgorod VS Ural Sverdlovsk Oblast


Nizhny Novgorod and Ural lock horns in this Russian Premier League round 26 battle at Nizhny Novgorod Stadium Sunday evening Beijing time. This league is of mediocre standards by European standards. However, football enthusiasts and us football bettors cannot, I'm afraid, expect a particularly entertaining game here between these two lowly teams. However, I am convinced that we have a very good betting opportunity here! The stakes are high as both teams are in an intense struggle to avoid relegation to the second tier for next season. There are a total of 16 clubs playing in this league and the teams who finish in 15-16th place face this grim fate. Furthermore, the teams who finish 14-15th will still have a chance to save their place in the Premier League. The hosts currently occupy the 14th place in the standings and have managed to take just 22 points so far this season. However, in terms of expected points (xPTS) they have been even worse! Indeed, their number of xPTS is just 19.21. They have netted the ball 27 goals in the Premier but in reality their offense is weaker than the number of goals scored would reflect. Their number of expected goals scored (xG) is just 23.87. Nizhny's offense lacks structure, creativity, individual skill and often also passing accuracy near the opponent's goal. Even mediocre teams can usually shut down Nizhny's offense pretty effectively. Ural's offense is not great either but they can at least be much more creative! Sometimes they rely on counter attacks but they can also score goals after long periods of controlling the ball and passing the ball from player to player. They, too, have scored just 27 goals but their xG is 30.09.

Despite only having 26 points to their account they have a clear edge in all areas of the game and also have more potential to improve during the rest of the season. I also trust their coach more than that of the hosts. Their number of xPTS is 32.12. Nizhny's defense is not totally useless – they have allowed 49 goals but Ural have conceded just 41 goals and have a much better defensive structure. The home advantage is there but Nizhny have been bad even at home this season which has frustrated the fans.. They have won just three games at their stadium so far this season and I don't believe that the atmosphere will be very good.. The biggest bookies that offer odds on this match see the visitors as narrow favorites but based on my in-depth, strongly data-based analysis Ural have a 43% chance to take all three points. The hosts have won just two of their latest 10 games so the recommended +0.5 goals handicap but on Ural is a very solid choice here! Ural have not been in good form lately either but fought well in their most recent match – it was a cup game despite losing to a very big club CSKA Moscow 1-2 at home. Before this they played a good game, especially defensively, and took a point away from home against Krasnodar though a 1-1 draw. Nizhny lost their latest game 0-1 away from home against Orenburg but the hosts could easily have taken a more clear win!

本译文使用有道机器翻译,仅供参考:

北京时间周日晚,俄罗斯超级联赛第26轮的比赛将在下诺夫哥罗德体育场举行,下诺夫哥罗德队和乌拉尔队将展开激战。按照欧洲的标准,这个联赛是中等水平的。然而,足球爱好者和美国足球投注者恐怕不能指望这两支低水平球队之间会有一场特别有趣的比赛。然而,我相信我们在这里有一个非常好的下注机会!这两支球队都在为避免下赛季降级到二级联赛而进行激烈的斗争,因此赌注很高。在这个联赛中总共有16家俱乐部,排名在15-16位的球队将面临严峻的命运。此外,排名14-15的球队仍有机会保住他们在英超的位置。东道主目前在积分榜上排名第14位,本赛季到目前为止只拿到了22分。然而,就预期分数(xPTS)而言,他们甚至更糟!实际上,他们的xpt数量只有19.21个。他们在英超打进27球,但实际上他们的进攻比进球数字所反映的要弱。他们的预期进球数(xG)只有23.87个。下城的进攻缺乏结构、创造力、个人技术,而且经常在对手的球门附近传球准确。即使是平庸的球队通常也能有效地压制下城的进攻。乌拉尔的进攻也不是很好,但他们至少可以更有创造力!有时他们依靠反击,但他们也可以在长时间控球和在球员之间传球后进球。他们也只进了27球,但他们的xG值是30.09。

尽管他们只拿到了26分,但他们在比赛的各个方面都有明显的优势,并且在本赛季剩下的时间里还有更多的潜力可以提高。我也更信任他们的教练,而不是东道主的教练。他们的xPTS数是32.12。下城的防守也不是完全没用,他们丢了49个球,而乌拉尔只丢了41个球,防守结构要好得多。主场优势是有的,但是下城本赛季甚至在主场也很糟糕,这让球迷们很沮丧。本赛季到目前为止,他们在主场只赢了三场比赛,我不相信这里的气氛会很好。提供这场比赛赔率的最大博彩公司认为客队的胜算不大,但根据我对数据的深入分析,乌拉尔有机会拿到全部三分。东道主在最近的10场比赛中只赢了两场,所以推荐的+0.5进球障碍在乌拉尔是一个非常可靠的选择!乌拉尔最近的状态也不太好,但在最近的一场比赛中打得很好——这是一场杯赛,尽管在主场1-2输给了实力很强的莫斯科中央陆军。在此之前,他们打得很好,特别是在防守方面,并在主场1-1战平克拉斯诺达尔的比赛中拿到了一分。

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