Sparta Prague VS Slavia Prague

Sparta Prague and Slavia Prague lock horns in this Mol Cup (Czech Cup) final at epet ARENA very early Thursday morning Beijing time. Both teams are among the top-3 teams in the Czech Republic. Furthermore, both clubs play in the 1. Liga which is of pretty good level by European standards. We can expect a quite good-level game here but typically for finals – and other very high stakes games - the goal expectancy here is lower than the betting market estimates. Based on my sophisticated, strongly data-based analysis the probability of under 2.5 total goals to be scored is 56%. The probability of a draw is somewhat high – 34%. This would be enough for my fans and me to bring us a winner with the recommended +0.5 goals handicap on Sparta Prague. The biggest, often somewhat sharp bookies that offer the biggest betting limits see the hosts as favorites here offering them odds of around 2.50 to win during the 90 minutes of play – at least at the time of writing this preview Wednesday evening Beijing time. However, I strongly believe odds on Slavia will come down before the match starts! I must disagree with the bookies and see the visitors as narrow favorites with today’s expected lineups. The hosts are missing Celustka, Cvancara, Jankto, Mejdr, Minchev, and Pasek. Slavia, on the other hand will be without Masopust, Olayinka and Sevcik.

Slavia are clearly the bigger team in terms of players total market value according to a well-known and well-respected German website, Transfermarkt.com. Their squad has a total market value of some 53 million euros. This is too low – I would set the number at 62-63. Four of their players are undervalued. Sparta’s players have a total market value of approximately 41 million - which is a little too high in my view. Sparta currently to the 1. Liga standings with 68 points to their account. However, their number of expected points (xPTS) is just 61.13. They have netted the ball 70 times so far this season. However, their number of expected goals (xG) is lower – 65.23 to be precise. Slavia are two points behind but I see them as the strongest candidates to lift the trophy at the end of the season! They have immense firepower and have scored a whopping 81 goals in 1. Liga so far! They have super-skilled offensive players and also have a fine offensive structure. I also trust their excellent coach a lot! he is very smart tactically and is a true leader for his men. Sparta have allowed just four more goals than the hosts but this is a bit misleading. Sparta’s number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is 32.12. Slavia’s number of xGA is just 21.98. Indeed, also in this area of the game Slavia have a clear edge. Both teams have been in fine form for a long team already. However, Slavia have looked more impressive than the hosts on the pitch recently. Sparta beat Liberec away from home in their latest match 3-1 but the final score is misleading. Sparta did have 64% ball possession but the hosts recorded more goal attempts (16-4) and shots on goal. A draw would not have bene unjustified. Certainly Sparta, priced around 1.50 to win on the betting market, were – once again overvalued! Slavia, on the other hand, were very unlucky three days ago and failed to beat Hradec Kralove at home. This result probably affects the odds too much here! They had over 70% ball possession and recorded more goal attempts (17-5), shots on and off goal, attacks and dangerous attacks.