Juventus VS Lecce

Juventus welcome Lecce for this Italian Serie A league 33 battle at Allianz Stadium in Turin in the early hours of Thursday Beijing time. This is the fourth-best league on the planet and football fans and us football bettors can expect a pretty good-level encounter here. The stakes are high for both teams here! Juventus are in a fierce fight with Inter, AC Milan, Roma and Atalanta for a UEFA Champions League spot for next year. The top-4 teams qualify for this competition. Juventus currently occupy the third place in the standings with 60 points to their account. Lazio have 61 points and Inter, AC Milan and Roma have grabbed 57 points. Atalanta are in 7th place with 55 points in the pocket. Juventus have a massive edge over Lecce in all areas of the game. They have netted the ball 48 times in Serie A so far this season. However, their number of expected goals (xG) is much higher 54.12. Lecce, on the other hand, have bene very lame offensively this season and have scored just 27 goals. Their offense lacks speed, structure, individual skill and creativity for this level. Only three teams have scored less goals than Lecce!

Juventus’ defense has been solid, once again, this season and they have allowed just 27 goals so far. Only two teams, Napoli and Lazio, have conceded less goals. Lecce’s defense is mediocre and they have allowed 38 goals. I expect them to be very defensive here against a superior opponent. I believe that their coach and players would be pretty happy with a draw. They will probably most rely on counter attacks, corners, free kicks – or a possible penalty to score here. The goal expectancy here is lower than the betting market estimates. Based on my sophisticated, strongly data-based analysis the probability of under 2.5 total goals to be scored is 64%. Juventus should be even bigger favorites than the odds offered by the biggest, often somewhat sharp bookies think. Their chance of sending Lecce home empty-handed is 72%. It is true that Juventus have not been at their best recently. However, they have been unlucky in many games in recent weeks. This seems have affected the odds too much here. In their latest game they faced Bologna, a dangerous team who are currently in 8th place in the league table, and it was a 1-1 draw in Bologna. Bologna played above their normal level in this match but Juventus were the better team on the pitch. They generated 2.54 in xG – Bologna’s number was 1.62. Before this they faced two very strong opponents - Napoli in Serie A and Inter in Coppa Italia (Italian Cup) - and last both games 0-1. However, they had their chances in both games.

Juventus have very loud and enthusiastic fans and offer a massive boost here. The fans are hungry for a win and I believe Juventus will be aggressive here right from the kick off – putting big pressure on the visitors’ defense. Lecce are a poor team away from home and have lost four games in a row on the road. they failed to score a single goal in these games! They currently occupy the 16th place in this league with a total of 20 clubs. They are not safe from relegation yet - three teams are relegated to the Serie B for next season. They have been in abysmal form lately! Yes, they did beat Udinese in their latest game 1-0 and played okay. However, Udinese had nothing to play for in this game and looked lazy on the pitch. Before this win they lost 7/8 eight matches and scored just two goals in these eight games!