Copiapo VS Coquimbo Unido

Copiapo host Coquimbo for this Chilean Primera Division round 12 battle at Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla Monday morning Beijing time. This league is pretty low level by global standards and we can not expect a particularly high-level or entertaining game here even by Primera Division standards. However, I do believe we have yet another lucrative betting opportunity here. Copiapo were promoted to this level from Primera B for this season. They are a small team for this level in terms of financial resources and I expect a difficult season for them as they lack quality for this this level in all areas of the game, Furthermore, according to a famous and well-respected German website, Transfermarkt.com their squad has a total market value of just 5.95 million euros. Coquimbo's players, on the other hand, are valued a total of 8.03 million which is too low in my view. I would set the number at 11-12 million. They have started the season very well - much better than probably most football journalists, I, or the betting market would have estimated before the season kicked off. I have significantly raised their power rating that reflects the teams' pure class from by sophisticated in-depth preseason rating. They currently occupy the 5th place in the standings with 17 points in their pocket. They have netted the ball 17 times in this league so far this season. However, their number of expected goals(xG) is 19.12. They have conceded 14 goals but their number of expected goals allowed(xGA) is a little higher – 14.32. I would be a little surprised if they were to finish in the top-5 but the bookies should definitely respect them! They have been in magnificent form lately – winning six of their latest seven games! In their most recent match they did suffer a defeat though against U. Espaniola, a dangerous team, currently in 7th place in the league table. 2-0 was the final score away from home as clear underdogs. The result does not, however, fully reflect the events on the pitch. The hosts did have 60% ball possession but Coquimbo did record more goal attempts and shots on goal.

Before the U. Espaniola match they were excellent away from home beating Nublense, as clear underdogs according to the bookies, 3-1 in an open and entertaining game. Coquimbo recorded more shots on goal (6-4), scoring attempts (17-8), attacks and dangerous attacks. The hosts have had a disappointing start to the season and are currently in 15th place in this league with a total of 16 clubs. They have grabbed 10 points but their number of xPTS is just 8.98. Their offense has been very lame so far and lacks speed, structure and individual skill. They have netted the ball just 10 times – this is the lowest number in this league. Their defense has been okay in some games but they would still have to improve in this area of the game as well if they want to climb up the standings. They have allowed 19 goals. However, I think they would need new players to improve significantly and I also do not trust their coach.. They have not lost a game for a while but have still  won just one their last six games in this league. Even so, the biggest, often quite sharp bookmakers with the largest betting limits see the hosts as solid favorites here – offering them odds of around 2.50 to take all three points. I have to disagree – with today's expected lineups I see the visitors as narrow favorites here. Yes the home advantage is there but Copiapo do not have the best fans and have not won any of their most recent home games. The visitors are clearly the better team and do have an edge in all areas of the game! In their most recent game Copiapo did beat Magallanes, the rock-bottom team, 2-0 away from home but did not deserve the win. The hosts had 73% ball possession and recorded 17 scoring attempts, total passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks in particular – 81-23.