Perth Glory VS Western United FC

Perth Glory welcome Western United for this Australian A-League round 26 clash at AAMI Park Saturday evening Beijing time. This is, in fact, the last round of play before the Play Offs kickoff. My fans and I have done super-well betting on this league that is of somewhat low level by global standards – especially taking into consideration that Australia have done quite well in international tournaments – they even made it to the Play Offs in the World Cup last in Qatar last year and only lost 1-2 to Argentina. Even so, football has increased its popularity and several teams have quite enthusiastic and demanding fans and an electric atmosphere at the stadium these days. The home advantage is substantial here as well. We have yet another very promising game to make a profit here! Perth Victory currently occupy the 7th place in the standings with 29 points in the pocket. However, I want to mention that they have been unlucky in terms of expected points (xPTS) so far this season. They would have deserved a total of 33.13 points. They have netted the ball 35 times in A-League so far but their number of expected goals (xG) is higher – 39.09. Perth have conceded 44 goals but their number of expected goals is just 42.19. The top-6 teams qualify for the Play offs. If teams finish on equal points at the end of the season, score difference will be the tie-breaker. Wellington Phoenix are in the 6th place at the moment and play their last regular season a few hours before this game starts. They have goal difference of 38:45. Indeed, if Wellington lose, Perth still have a chance to make it to the Play Offs! The odds will probably change after the Macarthur vs Wellington game – how much – this is hard to estimate at this point. Furthermore, it is impossible to give an exact probability estimation in these circumstances. However, I have placed a bet in this match myself already and most of the fans who read this preview will probably do so before we know whether Perth still have a Play Offs chance or not. Taking two possible scenarios (Play Offs chance – or no chance) I see the current odds of around 2.00 – 2.10 on the betting market Friday evening Beijing time as too high and we must take advantage of this opportunity!

In a scenario where neither team have anything to play for, the home team usually has an unexceptionally big chance of winning. Similarly to the UK and Ireland in particular, in Australia teams want to thank the loyal home fans by giving their best in the last home game of the season. So I expect Perth to do their best here! They do have an edge in all areas of the game. Western United are in the 9th place in the standings with a bad score difference of 32:46. Only Macarthur, the rock-bottom team, have allowed more goals – 47. In their most recent four games the visitors' defense has looked particularly leaky and disorganized. It looks like some Western United's players, especially defenders, are not 100% motivated in every game anymore - perhaps they are already looking forward to holidays.. They have allowed a whopping 10 goals in these four latest matches on the road! In their most recent game they were beaten at home by Melbourne City, who had already secured first place and had nothing to play for. Even so, the visitors cruised to an easy 3-1 win after over 71% ball possession. Melbourne City also generated 2.89 in xG – poor Wester United managed just 0.97. Before this they grabbed a very lucky win away from home over Adelaide United 1-0. The hosts had 64% ball possession and also recorded many more goal attempts (24-11), total passes, completed passes, tackles, attacks and dangerous attacks. The xG numbers were 2.78 – 1.34 in the hosts' favor. Perth Glory have been in mediocre form lately. They have had some defensive problems lately but also have a lot of offensive potential! Their latest match ended 4-4! It was a very entertaining game against a strong opponent, Adeleide United who are currently in 3rd place. They have won just two of their most recent six games – but have also suffered just one defeat in these six games. Last December they beat Western United at home - at Macedonia park that time – and would surely love to repeat this!

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

北京时间周六晚上，珀斯荣耀队将在AAMI公园迎来澳大利亚a联赛第26轮对阵西部联队的比赛。事实上，这是季后赛开始前的最后一轮比赛。我和我的球迷对这个联赛的投注都非常好，但按照全球标准来看，这个联赛的水平有些低——尤其是考虑到澳大利亚在国际比赛中表现相当出色——他们甚至在去年的卡塔尔世界杯上打进了附加赛，只以1比2输给了阿根廷。即便如此，足球已经越来越受欢迎，有几支球队的球迷非常热情，要求很高，球场里的气氛也很紧张。主场优势也很明显。我们还有一款非常有前景的游戏可以从中获利!珀斯胜利队目前在积分榜上以29分排名第七。然而，我想说的是，本赛季到目前为止，他们在预期积分(xPTS)方面一直不太走运。他们应该得到33.13分。到目前为止，他们在a联赛中取得了35次进球，但他们的预期进球(xG)更高，为39.09个。珀斯丢了44球，但他们的预期进球数只有42.19个。前六名的球队有资格参加附加赛。如果两队在赛季结束时得分相等，则得分差将成为决胜局。惠灵顿菲尼克斯目前排在第6位，在这场比赛开始前几个小时他们将进行最后一场常规赛。他们的净胜球是38:45。事实上，如果惠灵顿输了，珀斯仍然有机会进入附加赛!在麦克阿瑟对惠灵顿的比赛后，赔率可能会改变——有多少——这在这一点上很难估计。此外，在这些情况下，不可能给出一个精确的概率估计。然而，我自己已经对这场比赛下了赌注，大多数读到这篇预告的球迷可能会在我们知道珀斯是否还有机会进入附加赛之前下赌注。考虑两种可能的情况(附加赛机会-或没有机会)，我认为北京时间周五晚上博彩市场上目前的赔率约为2.00 - 2.10，这太高了，我们必须利用这个机会!

在两队都没有比赛的情况下，主队通常有很大的获胜机会。与英国和爱尔兰的情况类似，澳大利亚的球队希望在本赛季最后一场主场比赛中全力以赴，以感谢忠实的主场球迷。所以我希望珀斯在这里做到最好!他们在比赛的各个方面都有优势。西联目前在积分榜上排名第9，积分榜上的差距只有32:46。只有排名垫底的麦克阿瑟队丢了更多的球——47个。在最近的四场比赛中，客队的防守显得特别松散和混乱。看起来一些西联的球员，尤其是后卫，在每场比赛中都没有100%的动力——也许他们已经在期待假期了。在最近的四场客场比赛中，他们丢了10个球!在他们最近的一场比赛中，他们在主场被墨尔本城击败，墨尔本城已经锁定了第一名，没有什么可踢的。即便如此，客队在控球率超过71%的情况下轻松3-1取胜。墨尔本城在本赛季也取得了2.89分，而可怜的西联仅取得了0.97分。在此之前，他们非常幸运地在客场1-0战胜了阿德莱德联队。东道主拥有64%的控球率，并且有更多的进球次数(24-11次)、总传球次数、完成传球次数、抢断次数、进攻次数和危险进攻次数。对东道主有利的xG值为2.78 - 1.34。珀斯光荣队最近表现平平。他们最近在防守上有一些问题，但也有很大的进攻潜力!他们最近的比赛以4比4结束!这是一场非常有趣的比赛，对手是目前排名第三的强大对手阿德莱德联队。他们在最近的六场比赛中只赢了两场，但在这六场比赛中也只输了一场。去年12月，他们在主场击败了西联——那一次是在马其顿公园——他们肯定很想再来一次!