FC Macarthur VS Wellington Phoenix

Melbourne Victory host Brisbane Roar for this Australian A-League round 26 clash at AAMI Park in Saturday afternoon Beijing time. This is, in fact, the last round of play before the Play Offs start. My fans and I have done very well betting on this league that is of relatively low level by international standards – especially taking into consideration that Australia have done pretty well in international tournaments – they even made it to the Play Offs in the World Cup last in Qatar last season. Even so, football has increased its popularity and quite a few teams have quite enthusiastic fans and a good atmosphere at the stadium nowadays! Most importantly, we have yet another very promising match to make money betting on here ! Melbourne Victory currently occupy the 10th place in the standings with 28 points in the pocket. However, they have been somewhat unlucky in terms of expected points (xPTS) so far this season. They would have deserved a total of 36.03 points. It has been a disappointing season as they finished in 2nd place last season after the regular season! Yes, they have had many problems this season but now the bookies have gone too far "disrespecting" them.They have netted the ball 29 times in A-League so far but their number of expected goals (xG) is higher - 34.98..

The hosts have conceded 33 goals so far but their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is just 31.02. Their defense has indeed been solid so far – even Central Coast Mariners, currently in 2nd place in the league table with 44 points, have conceded more goals – 35 to be precise. The visitors have allowed the same number of goals. However, their number of xGA is much higher - 40.03! Their defense has not, however, been impressive lately. They have conceded four goals in their latest two games. Away from home Brisbane Roar's defense lacks structure, individual skill and the defenders have made too many silly mistakes. The midfielders should have been more active in defending but have often looked pretty lazy on the pitch. Moreover, they haven been abysmal on the road this year. Indeed, they have not won any of their most recent away games! In fact, they have suffered a defeat in six of the eight matches! They have allowed a whopping 11 goals in their most recent four games on the road! They would clearly need their fans to boost them.. However, there is a pretty big chance their season will end in yet another loss.. The biggest, often pretty sharp bookies that accept the biggest bets from customers offer the hosts odds of around 1.90-2.00 to send Brisbane hope back home empty-handed. We must take advantage of these generous odds with a 58% chance of winning! I would not be at all surprised to see the odds go down before the kick off as smart money is expected to pile up on the hosts.. They will be missing Brimmer and Nani here. The visitors are without R. Kruse. However, even heavy rotation in this game with nothing to play for for either team would not be a surprise so odds could change quite a bit from the time of writing this analysis Friday evening Beijing time..

The visitors' offense has been extremely disappointing this season! It has lacked speed, creativity, individual skill as well passing accuracy near the opponent's goal as well. The structure, too, has often been bad in away games! They have scored just 25 goals in this league so far. Their xG is 26.01 though. Even Macarthur, the rock bottom team, have netted the ball 31 times. I do expect them to improve in this area in the last game of the season.. However, with nothing at stake I expect a pretty offensive and probably entertaining game here. The probability of over 2.5 goals being scored is 67%. With nothing to play for the home team usually has an unexceptionally big chance of winning. Similarly the UK, in Australia teams want to thank the loyal home fans by giving their best in the last home game of the season. Brisbane are currently in 11th place in this league with a total of 12 clubs. They lost Sydney 0-2 at home in their most recent game but did not play badly. However, they seem to lack confidence – especially offensively at critical moments.. They even recorded more than the visitors in xG in this game – 1.64 – 0.98. However, like mentioned before they are massively better at home than on the road! Before this they grabbed a very lucky point away from home against Wellington Phoenix away from home. The hosts had 58% ball possession and recorded many more scoring attempts (24-14), shots on goal (9-4), total passes, completed passes and dangerous attacks 64-42. Furthermore, they generated 3.91 in xG – Brisbane's number was 1.53. I believe this undeserved point might affect the odds too much.. Melbourne Victory were not at their best in their most recent game but proved that they want to play for the fans and L. Brooks scored the winning goal in the 94th minute. They did however, fully deserve the win over Macarthur and I say 3-1 would have been the justified score.. The hosts recorded many more scoring attempts (25-17), shots on goal (10-6). They generated 2.81 in xG – the visitors' number was 1.12.

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

北京时间周六下午，澳大利亚a联赛第26轮将在AAMI公园进行，墨尔本胜利队将迎战布里斯班咆哮队。事实上，这是附加赛开始前的最后一轮比赛。我和我的球迷都很看好这个以国际标准来看水平相对较低的联赛——尤其是考虑到澳大利亚在国际赛事中表现相当出色——他们甚至在上个赛季的卡塔尔世界杯上进入了附加赛。即便如此，足球还是越来越受欢迎，现在有不少球队都有非常热情的球迷，球场里气氛也很好!最重要的是，我们还有另一场非常有希望的比赛可以在这里下注!目前，墨尔本胜利队以28分的积分排名第10位。然而，本赛季到目前为止，他们在期望积分(xPTS)方面有些不走运。他们应该得到36.03分。这是一个令人失望的赛季，上赛季他们在常规赛结束后排名第二!是的，他们本赛季有很多问题，但是现在博彩公司已经做得太“不尊重”他们了。到目前为止，他们在a联赛中取得了29次进球，但他们的预期进球数(xG)更高，为34.98。

东道主到目前为止丢了33个球，但他们的预期失球数(xGA)只有31.02个。到目前为止，他们的防守确实很稳固，即使是目前以44分排名第二的中央海岸水手队也丢了更多的球，确切地说是35个。客队丢了同样多的球。然而，他们的xGA数量要高得多——40.03!然而，他们的防守最近并不令人印象深刻。他们在最近两场比赛中丢了四个球。在客场，布里斯班咆哮队的防守缺乏结构和个人技术，后卫犯了太多愚蠢的错误。中场本应在防守时更加积极，但在球场上却常常显得很懒散。此外，他们今年在客场表现糟糕。事实上，他们最近一场客场比赛都没有赢过!事实上，他们在八场比赛中输了六场!在最近的4场客场比赛中，他们丢了11个球!他们显然需要粉丝的支持。然而，他们本赛季很有可能再次以失败告终。最大的、通常相当精明的博彩公司接受客户的最大赌注，他们给东道主开出的赔率约为1.90-2.00，让布里斯班的希望空手而归。我们必须利用这些慷慨的赔率，有58%的获胜机会!如果在开球前看到赔率下降，我一点也不会感到惊讶，因为预计聪明的钱会堆积在东道主身上。他们会想念布里默和纳尼的。v星人没有克鲁斯。然而，即使在这场比赛中，两队都没有什么可玩的，也不会令人惊讶，所以赔率可能会在北京时间周五晚上写这篇分析的时候发生很大的变化。

客队本赛季的进攻太令人失望了!它缺乏速度，创造力，个人技术以及在对手球门附近的传球准确性。这种结构在客场比赛中也经常很糟糕!到目前为止，他们在联赛中只进了25个球。他们的xG值是26.01。即使是排名垫底的麦克阿瑟队，也有31次进球。我确实希望他们在本赛季的最后一场比赛中在这方面有所提高。然而，在没有任何利害关系的情况下，我希望这是一场非常具有攻击性和娱乐性的游戏。进球超过2.5个的概率是67%。主队在没有比赛的情况下通常有很大的获胜机会。同样，英国和澳大利亚的球队也希望在本赛季的最后一场主场比赛中全力以赴，以感谢忠实的主场球迷。布里斯班目前在这个联赛中排名第11位，共有12家俱乐部。在最近的一场比赛中，他们在主场0-2输给了悉尼，但踢得并不差。然而，他们似乎缺乏信心——尤其是在关键时刻的进攻。在这场比赛中，他们在xG上的得分甚至超过了客队——1.64比0.98。然而，就像之前提到的，他们在家里比在路上要好得多!在此之前，他们在客场对阵惠灵顿菲尼克斯的比赛中幸运地拿到了一分。东道主的控球率为58%，得分次数(24胜14负)、射门次数(9胜4负)、总传球次数、完成传球次数和危险进攻次数(64胜42负)也更多。此外，他们在xG的数字为3.91，而布里斯班的数字为1.53。我认为这个不应得的分数可能会对赔率产生太大的影响。墨尔本胜利队在最近的比赛中表现不佳，但他们证明了他们想为球迷而战，布鲁克斯在第94分钟打进了制胜一球。然而，他们完全配得上战胜麦克阿瑟的胜利，我认为3-1的胜利是合理的。