Betis vs Real Socieded

Betis welcome Real Sociedad for this Spanish LaLiga round 31 battle at Estadio Benito Villamarín in Sevilla Wednesday morning Beijing time. This league is the second-best in the world. Football fans and bettors can expect a very high-level game here between these two good teams. The season in all big European leagues is soon coming to an end. The motivation factor has now become one of the key elements in profitable betting in many late season matches. For some things there is nothing left to play for. However, here both teams are very motivated and are fighting for the UEFA Champions League place for next season. The teams who finish 1-4th – earn a ticker - great achievement for either team. Betis currently occupy the 5th place in this league with a total of just 20 teams and have 48 points to their account. However, they have been a little lucky in terms of expected points (xPTS). They would have deserved just 47.02. Real Sociedad have 54 points in their pocket. They too, have had some luck on their side in terms of xPTS this season. LaLiga has one of the biggest home advantages of the top-20 leagues in the world and I believe this factor has not been given enough emphasis by the bookies here! Moreover, Real Sociedad have been far from convincing on the road lately. Indeed, they have lost four times and taken one draw in their most recent five away games! This point they achieved last month against a mediocre team, Mallorca. It was a 1-1 draw. Furthermore, they have failed to score even one goal in all the four away games they ended up losing. A horrible record to say the least! They seem to lack confidence away from home and are often too passive on the pitch..

Betis have loud and enthusiastic home fans who offer a massive boost for the players in this challenging game. The odds (around 2.55) offered by the biggest bookies that accept the biggest bets from customers – at the time of writing this analysis at least Tuesday afternoon Beijing time - are clearly too low. I expect the odds on Betis before the kickoff as smart money is expected to pile up on them! The recommended bet is the hosts with the +0.5 handicap option with a big chance of winning once again betting on LaLiga. Based on my strongly data-based, sophisticated in-depth analysis Betis are the favorites – not very clear though. The goal expectancy here is even lower - and the probability of a draw - higher than the betting market estimates. The chance of under 2.5 total goals being scored is 66%. The draw, on the other hand, has a probability of 33%. Both teams have scored ”only” 39 goals in LaLiga so far. However, their success heavily relies on very well-structured defense. The visitors have a small edge in this area of the game - they have conceded just 29 goals - Betis have allowed 33 goals. Betis would have deserved a win three days ago away from home against Osasuna but lost 2-3. Betis recorded 2.55 in xG - the hosts generated just 1.37. Both teams have won 3/5 of their latest matches.