Arsenal de Sarandi vs Club Atletico Union (Union de Santa Fe)

Arsenal de Sarandi welcome Union de Santa Fe for this Argentinian Liga profesional round 13 clash at Estadio Julio Humberto Grondona in Avellaneda Sunday morning Beijing time. This league is of lower level as a whole by global standards than many football fans and bettors probably realize - taking into account what a great football country Argentina is in terms of football culture and – of course, Argentina lifted the World Cup trophy last December in Qatar! I must disagree with the biggest, often pretty sharp bookies who see the visitors as only slim favorites and offer them odds of around 2.65 to win this battle. Based on my sophisticated in-depth analysis the visitors should be more clear favorites. They have a 46% chance of winning here. This is a low-scoring league on average and I see this match as even more low-scoring game than the bookies do. This suits the recommended bet on the visitors - with +0.5 goals handicap very perfectly! The probability of under 2.5 total goals being scored is around 69%. The draw would most certainly not surprise anyone here. The probability of a draw is 33.5%. With today's expected lineups the visitors should have an edge over the hosts in all areas of the game. Indeed, as my fans probably know I will not let the standings fool us!I want to mention that last season the visitors finished higher than Sarandi despite being unlucky in quite a few games – with the hosts it was the opposite..

Both teams have just eight points to their account but in terms of expected points (xPTS) visitors would have deserved 10.24 points. The hosts' xPTS is just 6.33. Both teams have allowed too many goals in this league so far this season -18 to be precise. Sarandi's number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is, however, even bigger - 20.05. The visitors' number of xGA is 15.22. Sarandi have lost four games in a row and are clearly low in confidence at the moment. Moreover, according to my reports their team spirit is also far from optimal.. The visitors have not been in good form either but at least took a point in their most recent match after a fine performance defensively. It was a home game against Tigre, a dangerous team, and no goals were scored but Union de Santa Fe did record many more goal attempts (17-10) shots on goal (6-3), attacks and dangerous attacks – 61-27. They have much room for improvement – especially in terms of defensive structure and will surely soon climb up the standings. According to a very well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com, Sarandi's players have a total market value of just around seven million euros. In my opinion this is still a little too high - despite being a very low number by Liga Profesional standards. I would set the number at around 6.5 million.. . The visitors' players have a total market value of approximately 14 million which is way too low! At least four players are under-valued in my view. I expect a defensive, a bit boring game here. Both teams lack offensive skill to capitalize on the scoring chances..