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芬兰职业体育分析师,已从业20年
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A GREAT match to bet on! 挪超 利勒斯特VS斯特罗姆

2023-04-19

比赛分析

挪超

已完赛

星期四2023-04-20 00:30

解读理由

Lillestrom VS Stromsgodset


Lillestrom host Stromsgodset for this Norwegian Elitserien battle at Åråsen Stadion very early Thursday morning Beijing time. This league is decent quality by European standards but will surely offer my fans and me many interesting betting opportunities – especially in the summer when the big European leagues are on a break.. There is no doubt about the fact that the hosts are the better team here. Indeed, they do have an edge in all areas of the game. However, my main point here is that the difference is smaller than the betting market believes! Especially in terms of offensive quality the margin is small. Last season Lillestrom scored a total of 49 goals – the visitors, on the other hand, netted the ball 44 times. Defensively the hosts do have a decent edge but I still would not be too surprised to see Lillestrom struggle to score here. I expect the visitors to choose a pretty defensive strategy and expect this match to be more low-scoring than the betting market does.. The probability for under 2.5 total goals to be scored is 49%. I expect the visitors to be pretty happy with a draw here.. The odds of 1.55-1.58 offered by the biggest, usually somewhat sharp bookies are definitely too low. However, we will go for the visitors not to lose by more than a one goal margin (+1.5 goals handicap) with a 71% chance of winning

Early season hardly any team’s offense is even close to the peak level. Defending, on the other hand, is much easier! Furthermore, the hosts failed to score in the opening round and ended up losing 0-2 in Stavanger. They only managed to record two shots on goal. Furthermore, the hosts, Viking, recorded more scoring attempts, total passes, completed passes and attacks – 109-92. I expect them to be little worse than last season when they finished in 4th place – and most probably often overvalued on the betting market.. Stromsgodset have potential to improve from the 12th place last season. They should work on their defensive structure as they conceded too many goals – 55 to be precise. However, their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) was smaller - 51.21 to be precise. I trust their coach to succeed in this! They started the Elitserien season well beating Aalesund 1-0 at home. It was pretty defensive and boring game but I was pretty impressed by the way the hosts defended! Aalesund. a dangerous team, only recorded 0.68 in expected goals (xG). However, I was not fully convinced by Stromsgodset’s offense and it was, in fact, criticized a bit in the Norwegian football media.. They lacked creativity but well probably main rely on fast counter attacks so I'm not too worried after all.. However, the win was surely a big boost to their morale! They have a 46% chance to bring something home from this match.

本译文使用有道机器翻译,仅供参考:

北京时间周四凌晨,利勒斯特罗姆主场迎战斯特罗姆godset,他们将在Åråsen球场迎战挪威精英队。以欧洲的标准来看,这个联赛的质量还不错,但它肯定会为我和我的球迷提供许多有趣的投注机会——尤其是在欧洲各大联赛休赛期的夏天。毫无疑问,东道主在这里是更好的球队。的确,他们在比赛的各个领域都有优势。然而,我的主要观点是,这种差异比博彩市场认为的要小!特别是在进攻质量方面,差距很小。上赛季利勒斯特罗姆总共进了49个球,而另一方面,客队打进了44球。东道主在防守方面确实有优势,但我仍然不会对利莱斯特罗姆在这里难以进球感到太惊讶。我预计客队会选择防守策略,预计这场比赛的得分会比博彩市场预测的更低。总进球数少于2.5个的概率是49%。我希望客队对平局感到非常高兴。最大的、通常有些敏锐的博彩公司开出的1.55-1.58的赔率肯定太低了。然而,我们将争取客队输球不超过1球(+1.5球障碍),胜率为71%

赛季初几乎没有任何一支球队的进攻能接近巅峰水平。另一方面,防守要容易得多!此外,东道主在首轮比赛中未能进球,最终在斯塔万格以0比2输掉了比赛。他们只射正了两脚。此外,东道主维京队的得分次数、总传球次数、完成传球次数和进攻次数都更多——109比92。我预计他们会比上赛季排名第四的时候差一点——而且很可能在博彩市场上经常被高估。从上赛季的第12名来看,斯特罗姆戈德塞特有提升的潜力。他们应该改进他们的防守结构,因为他们丢了太多球——准确地说是55个。然而,他们的预期进球数(xGA)更少,准确地说是51.21。我相信他们的教练会成功的!他们在联赛开始时在主场1-0击败了阿尔松。这是一场非常防守和无聊的比赛,但东道主的防守方式给我留下了深刻的印象!奥勒松。一支危险的球队,预期进球(xG)仅为0.68。然而,我并不完全相信斯特罗姆戈德塞特的进攻,事实上,挪威足球媒体对他的进攻提出了一些批评。他们缺乏创造力,但他们可能主要依靠快速反击,所以我并不太担心。然而,这场胜利无疑极大地鼓舞了他们的士气!他们有46%的机会在这场比赛中取得胜利。

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