KuPS vs Honka

KuPS welcome visitors from southern Finland for this Finnish Veikkausliiga round 3 battle at Väre Areena in Kuopio late Wednesday evening Beijing time. This is my home country's first tier but unfortunately the level by European standards is pretty low. However, it has been gradually improving in recent years.. However, my fans and I want to make a profit and for this purpose this league will surely be one of the best - especially in the summer when big European league are on a summer break. HJK Helsinki are the clearly the best team in this league - and even made it to the UEFA Europa League group stage last season where they tried to challenge Ludogorets, AS Roma and Real Betis - with little success though. For the fans who want to bet on HJK vs VPS my estimation on HJK -1.5 goals is 49%. The teams in in this league have changed quite a lot for this season and even the best Finnish professional bettors and well-known football journalist disagree with with the power ratings quite significantly.. The bookies often over-react to the results of the first 2-8 rounds of Veikkausliiga - this should offer us very lucrative betting opportunities!

Many teams have a pretty competitive starting eleven + 2-4 good substitutes but for some teams missing even one, not to mention more players can affect a lot! This is something the betting market often does not fully realize - at least in previous seasons. At the start of the Veikkausliiga season, however, most teams have a quite good situation in terms of injuries. KuPS are expected to be worse than last season by the betting market - this is obvious as they lost their legendary coach Simo Valakari, one of the key things in their success in recent years. He is a controversial person but no one can deny the fact the he is an excellent coach! In my view he is almost as good as HJK's Toni Koskela. KuPS's new coach is Pasi Tuutti, a very inexperienced coach at this level. I do not know him as person very well yet but there is no reason to believe he is anywhere close to Valakari's level at the moment as tactically or as a leader - probably never.. KuPS lost a long list of key players after last season and the owner, a rich investment banker Ari Lahti, is rumored to have lost some of his interest in financing the club as much as before.. Indeed, KuPS squad is much weaker than last season and the player budget is not big this. Yes, there are some good "ingredients" (players) but it will surely take time until KuPS reaches their peak level.. To some up, things at KuPS look a little "messy" at the moment and they were disappointing last season. I see KuPS as a worse team than the betting market and we will go for Honka to take at least a point here. Last season KuPS even topped the standings for quite a long time and ended up just one point behind HJK - this will not happen again. HJK will dominate the league but in handicap betting there may well be interesting opportunities to bet against them.. The last season probably still affects the odds too much.. In terms of expected goals - expected goals allowed ratio Honka, were, in fact better than KuPS last season! They finished in third place but were challenging for the championship late in to season.. Honka, too have lost some players - the key departures are the very talented Rui Modesto as well as Drazen Bragaric, Konsta Rasimus and the experienced leader figure Duarte Tammilehto, who retired. Head coach Vesa Vasara and his coaching team did, however, find good replacements! Mateo Oritiz, Clesio Baque ja Jonathan Muzinga - I expect a lot from this player! I also trust the often underrated Vasara. Unfortunately they lost a dangerous striker Agon Sadiku - sold to Norway for 600 000 euros right before the season started. Yes, this hurts them but his role lat season has been given too much emphasis in my opinion. Indeed, he scored many more goals than he should have in terms of expected goals (xG). The home advantage in Veikkausliiga is smaller than in most European leagues and in a weekday match it's even lower than in a week-end game. The atmosphere in Kuopio has been a little "depressed" after all the lost players and Valakari moving in to work in Latvia. In my power rating that reflects the teams' pure class KuPS are in 3rd and Honka in 2nd. There is not much between the two teams in terms of pure class but at the moment - for the reason explained before, Honka are definitely the better team - by a decent margin.

The biggest bookies that accept the biggest bets offer KuPS odds of around 2.20-2.30 to win and this too low! I do not see a favorite in this game so the obvious bet is Honka +0.5 goals! Honka lost to HJK in Helsinki in the first round 0-2 but were not bad. They even dominated the first 25 minutes but than HJK changed their tactic and started to be the better team on the pitch. HJK, were of course, very clear favorites in this game. Even so, Honka generated a decent number in xG - almost 1.00. In the second round they faced SJK, a dangerous team and no goals in Myyrmäki, where Honka were forced to play as their home pitch in Tapiola was in bad shape after a long winter. Honka were the better team and recorded more scoring attempts (13-9), shots on goal (8-4), attacks and dangerous attacks. KuPS have not won any of their most recent five games and lost to Inter Turku in the first round 1-2 at home after a lame performance! The visitors created more scoring chances and shots on target despite being clear underdogs. In the second round they faced KTP, the newly promoted team, in Kotka and it was a 0-0 draw despite the bookies offering KuPS odds of only around 2.00 to win. KuPS dominated the first half but in the second half Kotka, too had their chances.. For some reason KuPS quit pressing KTP in the second half and failed to put too much pressure on the hosts' defense or create a lot of xG.. I believe it was a bad tactical decision by Tuutti.. Not a promising sign ahead of this game..

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

北京时间周三晚，在库奥皮奥的Väre竞技场球场，欢迎来自芬兰南部的游客观看芬兰足球联赛第三轮比赛。这是我祖国的第一梯队，但不幸的是，按照欧洲标准，这一水平相当低。然而，近年来情况逐渐好转。然而，我的球迷和我都想赚钱，为此，这个联赛肯定会成为最好的联赛之一——尤其是在欧洲各大联赛暑假期间。赫尔辛基HJK显然是这个联赛中最好的球队，上赛季他们甚至进入了欧联杯小组赛，试图挑战卢多戈雷茨、罗马和皇家贝蒂斯，但几乎没有成功。对于那些想要赌上HJK vs VPS的球迷，我对HJK -1.5球的估计是49%。这个联赛的球队在这个赛季改变了很多，甚至最好的芬兰职业投注者和著名的足球记者都不同意这个排名。博彩公司经常对前2-8轮比赛的结果反应过度——这应该给我们提供非常有利可图的赌博机会!

许多球队都有很有竞争力的首发11人+ 2-4名优秀的替补，但对于一些球队来说，即使缺少一名球员，更不用说更多的球员也会影响很大!这是博彩市场通常没有完全意识到的——至少在前几个赛季是这样。然而，在新赛季开始的时候，大多数球队在伤病方面的情况都很好。根据博彩市场的预测，球队的战绩将比上赛季更差——这一点很明显，因为他们失去了传奇教练西莫·瓦拉卡里，这是他们近年来取得成功的关键因素之一。他是一个有争议的人，但没有人能否认他是一个优秀的教练!在我看来，他几乎和香港的托尼·科斯凯拉一样好。卡普斯的新教练是帕西·图蒂，一个在这个级别上非常缺乏经验的教练。我对他这个人还不是很了解，但目前没有理由相信他在战术或领导方面接近瓦拉卡里的水平——可能永远不会。上个赛季之后，up失去了一长串关键球员，而老板，一个富有的投资银行家阿里·拉赫蒂，有传言说他已经失去了一些对俱乐部融资的兴趣。的确，球队阵容比上赛季弱了很多，球员预算也不高。是的，有一些好的“成分”(球员)，但要达到他们的巅峰水平肯定需要时间。对一些人来说，目前up的情况看起来有点“混乱”，上一季也令人失望。我认为up是一支比博彩市场更糟糕的球队，我们希望Honka至少能在这里拿一分。上个赛季，上普斯甚至在很长一段时间里都保持着积分榜第一的位置，最终只落后hkk一分——这种情况不会再发生了。香港将统治联赛，但在障碍赌博中，可能会有有趣的机会赌他们输…最后一个赛季可能仍然对赔率影响太大。在预期进球方面——预期失球率，事实上，上赛季洪卡比卡普斯要好!他们以第三名结束比赛，但在本赛季后期向冠军发起了挑战。红卡也失去了一些球员——关键的球员是非常有天赋的莫德斯托、布拉加里奇、拉西穆斯和已经退役的经验丰富的队长塔米列托。然而，主教练Vesa Vasara和他的教练团队确实找到了好的替补!奥里蒂斯、巴克尔、穆津加——我对这名球员期望很高!我也信任经常被低估的瓦萨拉。不幸的是，他们失去了一名危险的前锋阿贡·萨迪库——在赛季开始前以60万欧元的价格卖给了挪威。是的，这伤害了他们，但在我看来，他在赛季后期的作用被过分强调了。事实上，他的进球比预期进球(xG)要多得多。维克考斯利加的主场优势比大多数欧洲联赛都要小，工作日的比赛甚至比周末的比赛还要小。库奥皮奥的气氛有点“沮丧”，因为所有的球员都离开了，瓦拉卡里也去了拉脱维亚工作。在我的力量排名中，这反映了球队的纯粹职业提升，排名第三，而洪卡排名第二。就纯粹的级别而言，两支车队之间并没有太大的差距，但目前——出于之前解释过的原因，红卡绝对是一支更好的车队——有相当大的差距。

接受最大赌注的最大博彩公司提供的赔率约为2.20-2.30，这太低了!在这场比赛中我没有看到谁是最受欢迎的，所以很明显的赌注是洪卡+0.5球!在赫尔辛基，洪卡第一轮0-2不敌hkk，但表现还不错。他们甚至在前25分钟占据了主导地位，但随后恒大改变了战术，开始在球场上表现得更好。当然，HJK在这场比赛中是非常明显的热门。即便如此，Honka在xG中还是取得了不错的成绩——接近1.00。在第二轮比赛中，他们面对的是SJK，这是一支危险的球队，在Myyrmäki没有进球，由于他们在塔皮奥拉的主场在漫长的冬天后状态不佳，洪卡被迫参加比赛。洪卡队表现更好，得分次数(13-9)、射正次数(8-4)、进攻和危险进攻都更多。在最近的5场比赛中，up没有赢过一场，并且在第一轮主场1-2输给了国际图尔库。客队创造了更多的得分机会和射门机会，尽管他们明显处于劣势。在第二轮比赛中，他们在科特卡迎战新升级的球队KTP，尽管博彩公司开出的胜率只有2.00左右，但双方还是以0比0战平。尤普斯上半场占据主导地位，但下半场科特卡也有机会。由于某些原因，up在下半场放弃了对KTP的施压，未能给主队的防守施加太多压力，也没有创造太多的xG。我认为这是图蒂的一个糟糕的战术决定。在这场比赛之前，这不是一个有希望的迹象。