Ajax VS Emmen

Ajax host Emmen for this Dutch Eredivisie round 29 battle at Johan Cruijff Arena  early Monday Beijing time. This league is not among the top-4 leagues in the world but still offers good-level football for fans to watch - and for my fans and me to bet on! Most teams, especially Ajax, play beautiful, offensive football with a lot of short passes. However, our goal is to make a long-term profit and we have yet another good betting opportunity here. We will go for the hosts to avoid losing by more than two goals difference. The probability for this is 58% and odds of around 2.00 are available with the biggest, often quite smart bookies. Even so, these bookies seem to make  quite a few mistakes with their odds on this league! There is, of course, no doubt about the fact that Ajax are a much better team here. However, the current odds of around 1.10 on the betting market for them to win are way too low. I see them having a 83% chance to send the visitors home empty-handed. Ajax's season has been a disappointment, no one can deny this. Even so, the bookies just keep overvaluing them! Ajax currently occupy 3rd place in the standings. For a team with Ajax resources and players this is unacceptable. Feyenoord top the league table with 70 points in the pocket - Ajax have grabbed just 59! This means that they will not win the championship and might even fail to make it to top-2 – and miss a place in the UEFA Champions League qualification next season.. Their fans are very unhappy at the moment and can even turn against them here should Emmen be able to keep it close late into the second half..

Yes, Ajax will be motivated here as PSV, in 2nd place, are just three points away. However, the visitors, Emmen, are ”fighting for their lives” - to avoid relegation. This is hugely motivating and, in fact, Emmen being undervalued by the bookies is the main rationale behind this pick! Emmen have 25 points to their account but would have deserved 29.98 in terms of expected points (xPTS). They have a pretty good coach and - according to my sources – the team spirit is fine as well! I expect them to be very defensive here against a superior opponent. They will surely rely on counter-attacks, corners or perhaps a penalty kick. They are not expected to become too aggressive, even if they end up trailing by a one-goal-margin.. They are actually in pretty good form, losing just one of their most recent five games. In their most recent game they were not impressive offensively but defended well against Nijmegen and no goals were scored. Before this they beat Cambuur, a lowly team, 2-1 away from home. I want to mention the hosts played above their normal level in this game. Ajax beat Sittard at home 4-0 in their most game but the final score flatters them as they only recorded 2.21 in expected goals (xG). Before this they were lucky to beat Feyenoord 2-1 in a cup game - this win probably affects the odds too much here.. Ajax have won just 3/5 of their most recent games.