Wolfsburg VS Bayer Leverkusen

Wolfsburg welcome Bayer Leverkusen for this German Bundesliga round 28 clash at Volkswagen Arena early Monday morning Beijing time. This is the third-best league in the world and the goal expectancy on average is higher than in many other top European leagues. Bundesliga atches are often entertaining to watch and I expect good entertainment here as well between these two not top but still good teams! The biggest, quite often somewhat smart bookmakers who accept the biggest bets from customers have, in my view, chosen the wrong favorite here. These bookies offer Leverkusen odds of around 2.50 to take all three points - at least at the time of writing this analysis Sunday evening Beijing time. However, I would not be surprised to see the odds on Wolfsburg to go down before the kickoff as clever money is expected to pile up on the visitors.. Leverkusen were massively struggling last autumn and were near the bottom of the Bundesliga table. In the Champions League they finished only third in the group. Of course we all knew that they are better by pure class. This year they have looked much better on the pitch and have climbed up the Bundesliga standings and are already in 6th place with 43 points to their account. In terms of expected points (xPTS) they would have deserved slightly more. However, as a result, they have become too hot in the media and most importantly, on the betting market. Yes, they are a better team than the hosts but definitely not by a wide margin. 

The home advantage here is substantial - despite Wolfsburg's pretty lame most recent performanced in front of their very loud and demanding fans. Taking this factor into account the hosts are narrow favorites. They are, after all, only five points behind Leverkusen in the standings. Furthermore, they have allowed five goals less than the visitors whose defense still has some structural problems. Of course, they have played aggressive, offensive football for many season already. Even so, they have scored just five goal more than Wolfsburg. They won a whopping seven games in a row – before being very disappointin on Thursday in the UEFA Europa League first leg at home against a Belgian team, Roayle Union SG. Leverkusen were priced around 1.50 to win but it was a 1-1 draw. Yes theyt were the better team on the pitch but recorded only 1.49 in expected goals (xG). The visitors generated 0.81. Moreover, having just two full days to rest is not optinal in professional football - a clear edge for the hosts there. They last played a week ago and lost away from home to Mönchengladbach but played okay. Leverkusen play on Thursday in Belgium in the second leg so their concentration here might not be 100%. Making it to top-4 (Champions League next season) is, after all, very unlikely so they will surely try to win the Europe League..