Sochaux VS Pau

Sochaux welcome Pau for this French Ligu1 round 31 clash at Stade Auguste Bonal in Montbéliard early Sunday morning Beijing time. My fans and I have done well betting on Ligue 1 and once again I have found a match where the bookies have made a mistake with their odds! And we, of course, e have to take advantage of this mistake. Indeed, the biggest, often somewhat smart bookmakers that offer the biggest betting limits offer odds of around 1.50-1.55 for the hosts to win. These may sound low but in reality there is a big difference in class between the two teams. With the expected lineups I see Sochaux having a slightly over 70% chance to take all three points. For those who want to go for bigger odds betting on the hosts with the -1.5 goals handicap is a good option as well at odds around 2.55. The probability of winning for this bet is 46-47%. Sochaux have a very clear edge on the visitors in all areas of the game. They have netted the ball 49 times in this league so far this season. This is the highest number in Ligue 2 where a total of 20 teams play. For example Le Havre, who currently top the standings, have scored just 40 goals. However, defensively Sochaux are not as strong but their defense does not have obvious weaknesses either. Pau's offense is very bad for this level and they have scored just 23 goals in Ligue 2. This is the lowest number in the league! Yes, they have some potential to improve in this area but not significantly. Their offense lacks creativity, individual skill and structure. I would not be at all surprised to see them failing to score here. Their defense is, however, not bad but Sochauax's talented offensive players should be able to find ways to break it – probably more than once! 

The hosts have a respectable 52 to their account and have a genuine chance to make it to the top-2! The top-2 teams are directly promoted to Ligue 1. Another big club by Ligue 2 standards, Bordeaux, currently in second place, have only four points more in the pocket and have played one more game. Pau, on the other hand, occupy the 15th place in the standings and surely need more points to secure their place in Ligue 2 for next season but their situation looks very good. They have several more points in the bank than Laval, Dijon, Nimes and Niort – the four teams currently in the relegation zone. Furthermore, these teams are more or less out of form. To sum up, I see the hosts having a small edge in motivation. In their most recent match Sochaux swept past Niort 3-0 away from home after 64% ball possession. Yes, the final score does flatter them but it was still a solid performance! Before this they faced Bastia, a dangerous team currently in 5th place, and ended up losing 2-3. The match was a balanced one and they would have deserved a point as clear underdogs according to the betting market. Furthermore, before this they fully deservedly beat Grenoble 1-0 at home and could have scored more goals. Pau, on the other hand, had some luck on their side in their most recent match taking a point from Metz at home through a 1-1 draw after a very lame offensive performance.