San Lorenzo vs Boca Juniors

San Lorenzo welcome Boca Juniors for this Argentinian Liga Profesional round 11 clash at Estadio Pedro Bidegain in Buenos Aires early Thursday morning Beijing time. This league as a whole is of surprisingly low-level by international standards – especially taking into account what a great football culture Argentina are and how good their national team is! This league is a low-scoring one – similarly to many other South American leagues – for example the Brazilian Serie A. Most teams play well-structured, somewhat defensive football. We can expect a good game by Liga Profesional standards here between these too classy teams. Many goals are not expected though and the probability of under 2.5 total goals to be scored is 72%. The draw – with a probability of 34% - would not surprise anyone and would be enough for my fans and I to win once again with the recommended +0.5 goals handicap option on the visitors. As most of my fans know I will never let the standings fool me! San Lorenzo have started the season well and I have moderately raised their power rating from the sophisticated in-depth preseason analysis. However, the betting market seems to trust them too much here. They currently occupy the second place with 20 points to their account but the league is very balanced. For example Rosaria Central, currently in 6th place, have as many as 18 points in the pocket.. San Lorenzo have defended very well this season and have conceded just five goals in this league so far this season. Even so, their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is 8.23. They will certainly allow more goals per game during the rest of the season. They have netted the ball 13 times and in terms of expected goals (xG) they have not been either lucky or unlucky. I believe their offense lacks individual skill for them to finish in the top-4.

The hosts' number of (xPTS) is much lower than 18. Last season they finished in 6th place with 43 points but would have deserved just 38.22 in terms of (xPTS) Boca Juniors are – along with River Plate two two biggest clubs in Argentina by historical success, number of fans and financial resources.. Not that much has, after all, really changed from last season.. We must remember that Boca Juniors are the reigning champions! They grabbed a total of 52 points last season. According to well-respected and famous German Transfermarkt.com the visitors squad is valued at close to 80 million euros! This number is more or less correct in my view. The hosts' squad has a total market value of around 45 million which is definitely too high. At least four players are overvalued. In their most recent game they beat a struggling team, Atl. Tucuman, currently in the 27th place in this league with a total of 28 clubs 3-1 away from home. The final score is pretty misleading as the hosts recorded more goal attempts and shots on goal. San Lorenzo did, however, have 58% ball possession. Before this they beat Estudiantes Merida, a team from Venezuela 1-0 away from home as very clear favorites on the betting market – priced around 1.65 to win. It was a Copa Sudamericana Group stage round 1 clash. It is true that Boca Junior's season has not started well and are currently in 15th place with 14 points. I have marginally lowered their power rating from the preseason analysis. However, Boca Juniors' number of xPTS is much bigger than this. They have scored 13 goals in this league so far – a good number – but I have not been happy with their defense in many matches. However, I trust their coach and high-quality players to improve especially in this area of the game! Based on both teams' performances this season the current odds offered on the betting market – around 2.60 on the hosts and approximately 3.00 on Boca Juniors would be quite correct but we must give Boca Juniors' potential enough emphasis. In my opinion the visitors are slim favorites here. They were extremely unlucky to lose to Colon Santa Fe at home in their most recent match. They had 71% ball possession and recorded many more goal attempts (20-5), shots on goal (6-2), total passes, completed passes, attacks and especially dangerous attacks – 66-23. The betting market seems to have reacted too much to this defeat..

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北京时间周四凌晨，圣洛伦索欢迎博卡青年在布宜诺斯艾利斯佩德罗比德加根球场进行阿根廷职业联赛第11轮的比赛。以国际标准衡量，这个联赛整体水平低得令人惊讶——尤其是考虑到阿根廷的足球文化和他们的国家队多么优秀!这是一个低得分的联赛，类似于许多其他南美联赛，例如巴西甲级联赛。大多数球队踢的是结构合理，有点防守的足球。按照西甲联赛的标准，我们可以期待这两支太有水准的球队之间会有一场精彩的比赛。很多进球都是意料之外的，总进球数在2.5球以下的概率是72%。这场平局的概率为34%，不会让任何人感到惊讶，这足以让我的球迷和我再次赢得比赛，因为客队的进球数推荐为+0.5。我的大多数粉丝都知道，我永远不会被排名欺骗!圣洛伦索本赛季开局不错，我从复杂深入的季前赛分析中适度提高了他们的实力评级。然而，博彩市场似乎过于信任他们了。他们目前以20分排名第二，但联赛非常平衡。例如罗萨利亚中央，目前排名第6，有多达18分。圣洛伦索本赛季防守非常好，本赛季到目前为止在联赛中只丢了5球。即便如此，他们的预期失球数(xGA)是8.23。在本赛季剩下的比赛中，他们每场比赛肯定会失球更多。他们已经进了13次球，就预期进球(xG)而言，他们既不是幸运的，也不是不幸的。我认为他们的进攻缺乏个人技术，无法进入前四。

主机的(xPTS)数量远远小于18。上赛季，博卡青年队以43分排名第6，但如果按照积分计算，博卡青年队应该只得到38.22分——与河床队并列的是阿根廷历史上最成功的两家俱乐部，球迷数量和财政资源。毕竟，与上一季相比，变化不大。我们必须记住博卡青年是卫冕冠军!上赛季他们一共得到52分。据德国著名网站Transfermarkt.com报道，这支客队的身价接近8000万欧元!在我看来，这个数字多少是正确的。东道主球队的总市值约为4500万美元，这绝对是太高了。至少有四名球员被高估了。在最近的一场比赛中，他们击败了一支苦苦挣扎的Atl队。图库曼目前在联赛中排名第27位，共有28家俱乐部客场3胜1负。最终的比分相当具有误导性，因为东道主记录了更多的射门次数和射门次数。然而，圣洛伦索队却有58%的控球率。在此之前，他们在客场以1-0击败了来自委内瑞拉的梅里达学生队，这支球队在博彩市场上非常受欢迎，他们的获胜价格约为1.65欧元。这是一场南美杯小组赛第一轮的比赛。博卡青年队本赛季确实开局不佳，目前积14分排在第15位。我从季前赛的分析中略微降低了他们的实力评级。然而，博卡青年的xPTS数量要比这多得多。到目前为止，他们已经在联赛中打进了13个进球，这是一个不错的数字，但是我对他们在很多比赛中的防守并不满意。然而，我相信他们的教练和高质量的球员会在这方面有所提高!根据两队本赛季的表现，博彩市场目前提供的赔率——东道主约2.60，博卡青年约3.00，这是相当正确的，但我们必须对博卡青年的潜力给予足够的重视。在我看来，客队在这方面胜算不大。在最近的一场比赛中，他们非常不幸地在主场输给了科隆圣达菲。他们有71%的控球率，并且记录了更多的射门次数(20-5)，射门次数(6-2)，总传球次数，完成传球，进攻，尤其是危险的进攻——66-23。博彩市场似乎对这次失败反应过度。