Marseille vs Montpellier

Marselle welcome Montpellier for this French Ligue 1 round 29 battle at Stade Vélodrome early Saturday morning Beijing time. This is the fourth-best league in the world after the English Premier League, Spanish LaLiga and German Bundesliga. Football fans and bettors alike have every reason to expect a pretty high-level and entertaining clash here between the two good teams. There is, of course, no doubt about the fact that Marseille are the stronger team here. They do have an edge over Montpelllier in all areas of the game. Even so, the smart thing here is to side with the visitors. The odds of around 1.55 on the hosts to send the visitors home empty-handed offered by the biggest, often somewhat sharp bookies that accept the biggest bets are definitely too low. The betting market is overvalueing Marseille and undervaluing Montpellier. The recommended bet here is the +1.5 goals handicap which means that my fans and I will make a profit if the visitors avoid losing by more than one goal's difference. The probability for this is, based on my sophisticated and in-depth analysis, 70%. Marseille currently occupy the second place in the standings with 59 points to their account. They are in second place also in my power rating that reflects the teams' pure class but they are only marginally better than Lens in third place and Lille in the 7th place. Marseille's number of expected points (xPTS) is just 51.12. They have betted the ball 53 times in Ligue 1 so far this season. Furthermore, they have conceded 28 goals but their number of expected goals allowed is 37.17. Indeed, their defense does have pretty many weaknesses - for a top-4 team. Their defenders make surprisingly many silly mistakes – especially against the top-12 teams who usually have dangerous offensive players. I expect the visitors to score here – even more than one goal would not be a surprise. Moreover, with a good performance and perhaps some luck they could even win this game! They have netted the ball 44 times so far and have been surprisingly strong offensively this season!

Montpellier's defense has not been overly convincing and they have allowed 47 goals. Even so, they have improved their defensive structure a lot recently and the midfielders now take part in defending more actively. I want to emphasize that the visitors have been in fine form lately! They have won five of their most recent six games! In their most recent game they defeated a pretty good team, Clermont. 2-1 at home after a great performance – especially offensively! They had 56% ball possession and recorded 23 goal attempts and more shots on goal, total passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks - 76-26.. They recorded 3.41 in xG – the visitors' number was 1.23. Before this they beat AC Ajaccio away from home 1-0 and defended very well. The hosts only recorded 0.22 in xG and managed one shot on goal. Montpellier's xG was 1.52. Marseille, on the other hand, have not been in great form lately. Indeed, they have won just one of their latest five matches. They have not won any of their most recent six games by more than one goal's difference. In their most recent match they had luck on their side beating Reims away from home. Reims had 56% ball possession and recorded many more goal attempts (19-12) and more shots on goal , total passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks - 68-47.. They recorded 1,82 in xG – Marseille's number was 1.49

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马塞尔欢迎蒙彼利埃参加法甲第29轮比赛Vélodrome北京时间周六凌晨。这是继英超、西甲和德甲之后的世界第四大联赛。足球迷和赌球者都有充分的理由期待两支优秀球队在这里进行一场相当高水平和有趣的比赛。当然，毫无疑问，马赛在这里是一支更强的球队。他们在比赛的各个方面都比蒙彼利埃队有优势。即便如此，聪明的做法是站在游客一边。最大的、通常有些精明的、接受最大赌注的博彩公司给出的东道主让游客空手而归的赔率约为1.55，这显然太低了。博彩市场高估了马赛，低估了蒙彼利埃。这里推荐的赌注是+1.5个进球，这意味着如果客队避免了超过一个进球的差距，我的球迷和我将获利。根据我复杂而深入的分析，这种可能性是70%。马赛目前以59分位居积分榜第二。在我的实力评分中，他们也排在第二，这反映了球队的纯粹水平，但他们只比第三名的朗斯和第七名的里尔略好。马赛的预期得分(xPTS)只有51.12分。本赛季到目前为止，他们已经在法甲联赛中赌球53次。此外，他们已经丢了28个球，但他们的预期失球数是37.17个。事实上，对于一支排名前四的球队来说，他们的防守确实有很多弱点。他们的后卫犯了很多愚蠢的错误，尤其是在对阵12强球队时，这些球队通常都有危险的进攻球员。我希望客队能在这里进球，即使不止一个进球也不足为奇。而且，如果表现好，再加上运气，他们甚至可以赢得这场比赛!到目前为止，他们已经得分44次，本赛季他们的进攻非常强大!

蒙彼利埃的防守并不令人信服，他们已经失球47个。尽管如此，他们最近已经改善了他们的防守结构，中场球员现在更积极地参与防守。我想强调的是，客人们最近状态很好!他们在最近的六场比赛中赢了五场!在他们最近的一场比赛中，他们在主场2-1击败了一支相当不错的球队克莱蒙特队，他们的表现非常出色——尤其是在进攻端!他们有56%的控球率，记录了23次射门和更多的射门，总传球，完成传球，进攻和危险攻击- 76-26。他们的xG为3.41，而访客的xG为1.23。在此之前，他们在客场1-0击败了AC阿雅克肖，防守非常好。东道主的xG仅为0.22，并有一次射门成功。蒙彼利埃的xG为1.52。另一方面，马赛最近状态不佳。事实上，他们在最近的五场比赛中只赢了一场。在最近的六场比赛中，他们没有赢过任何一场，比分差距超过一球。在最近的一场比赛中，他们很幸运地在客场击败了兰斯。兰斯拥有56%的控球率，并记录了更多的进球尝试(19-12)和更多的射门，总传球，完成传球，攻击和危险攻击- 68-47。他们在xG中记录了1.82个-马赛的数字是1.49