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芬兰职业体育分析师,已从业20年
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A lucrative game in argentina

2023-03-31

比赛分析

阿甲

已完赛

星期五2023-03-31 08:30

解读理由

Argentinos Juniors VS Godoy Cruz Antonio

Argentinos Juniors host Godoy Cruz for this Argentinian Liga Profesional round 9 battle at Estadio Diego Armando Maradona in Buenos Aires Friday morning Beijing time. The level is this lworse is lower than most football fans think - especially taking into consideriation what a great football country Argentina is! It is, similarly to many other South American leagues for example the Brazilian Serie A,a somewhat low-scoring one an average. The goal expextancy in this game is higher than the bookies think though. My probability estimation on over 2.5 total goals to be scored is 45%. Most teams play pretty defensive and well-organized football in Liga Profesiona. The hosts have potential for scoring much more goals per game than they have scored so far. The biggest, often somewhat sharp bookies offer the hists odds of around 1.65-1.70 to send the visitors home three empty-handed. I must disagree with these bookies and see the visitors as very clear favorites. With today's expected lineups they have a clear edge in all areas of the game The hosts started the season in a slightly disappointing manner and currently occupy the 13th place in the standings.

The hosts have a respectable 11 points to their account. They have netted the ball just seven times in this league so far this season and have allowed five goals but have been very unlucky in many games. Their number of expected points (xPTS) is much higher than 11 – 15.02 to be precise.. They have played won two and played two draws in their most recent games bit would have deserved to win both games that were eventually draws. Their offense was not at its best in this games but the opponent also defensed very well in both games. I want to mention that last season the hosts finished in 8thth place with 42 points and had score difference of 33:24. The visitors, on the other hand, had a mediocre season and ended up in the 15h place in this league with a total of 28 clubs but were also pretty lucky in terms of expected points. I expect them to be worse this season. They have 12 points in the pocket at the moment but their number of expected points is just 8.12 and they are clearly overvalued on the betting market here. They would probably have to be lucky here to avoid defeat against a better opponent boosted by very loud home fans!

本译文使用有道机器翻译,仅供参考:

北京时间周五上午,阿根廷青年队将在布宜诺斯艾利斯马拉多纳球场迎战戈多伊克鲁兹队,参加阿根廷职业联赛第9轮的比赛。这个水平比大多数球迷想象的要低,尤其是考虑到阿根廷是一个伟大的足球国家!与许多其他南美联赛(如巴西甲级联赛)类似,这是一个平均得分较低的联赛。不过,在这场比赛中,进球的可能性比博彩公司认为的要高。我估计总进球数超过2.5个的概率是45%。在西甲职业联赛中,大多数球队的防守和组织都很好。东道主有潜力在每场比赛中打进比目前更多的进球。最大的、通常有些精明的博彩公司开出的赔率约为1.65-1.70,客队三个空手而归。我不同意这些赌徒的看法,我认为客队显然是最受欢迎的球队。根据今天预期的阵容,他们在比赛的各个方面都有明显的优势。东道主本赛季开局略令人失望,目前排名第13位。

东道主有相当可观的11分。本赛季到目前为止,他们在联赛中只进了7次球,丢了5个球,但在许多比赛中都非常倒霉。准确地说,他们的期望点数(xPTS)远远高于11 - 15.02。他们在最近的比赛中赢了两场,打了两场平局,他们本应该赢下两场最终平局的比赛。他们的进攻在这场比赛中不是最好的,但对手在两场比赛中都防守得很好。我想说的是,上赛季东道主以42分排名第八,比分相差33:24。另一方面,客队本赛季表现平平,在28支球队中排名第15位,但在预期积分方面也相当幸运。我预计他们这个赛季会更糟。他们目前有12分在手,但他们的预期积分只有8.12分,他们在彩票市场上显然被高估了。他们可能得很幸运,才能避免输给一个由非常吵闹的主场球迷支持的更好的对手!

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