Strasbourg VS Auxerre

Strasbourg welcome Auxerre for this French Ligue 1 round 28 clash at Stade de la Meinau late Sunday evening Beijing time. This is the fourth-best league in the world and my fans and I have done very well betting on it! Once again I have spotted a lucrative betting opportunity! The hosts currently occupy the 15th place in the standings with 23 points to their account. However, they have been massively unlucky in terms of expected points (xPTS) so far this season. Indeed, in terms of expected points they would have deserved 32.02 points. I will not let the standings fool me – as most of my fans know by now. The biggest bookies that accept the largest bets from customers offer odds of around 2.00-2.05 on the hosts to send Auxerre home empty-handed. This is unarguably too much – my estimation on the hosts winning is 55%. Yes, it is true that Strasbourg's record at home this season is disappointing. However, over the years they have been pretty strong in front of their loud and loyal fans. Moreover, in Ligue 1 the teams have one of the biggest home advantages in Europe on average during the last 10 years – excluding the matches played without fans due to Covid-19 restrictions. We must also remember that Auxerre have been mostly bad on the road this season. Indeed, they have lost 9/14 and won just 2/14 of their away games in this league so far this season! They seem to lack confidence and often give up the ball too easily in away games – even against mediocre opponents like Strasbourg. Auxerre's score difference away from home is abysmal - 12:29 to be precise. I expect the hosts to control the events on the pitch for most of the 90 minutes and be pretty aggressive right from the kickoff.

The hosts have an edge in all areas of the game. They have netted the ball 32 times in this league so far. However, in terms of expected goals (xG) they have been unlucky and would have deserved 37.12 goals! Indeed, offensively the difference between the teams is big but in terms of defensively Auxerre are not that much worse. The hosts have allowed 46 goals and the visitors 49 goals in Ligue 1 so far. Auxerre are in the 17th place in the league table so far and do, in fact, have the same number of points as the host in the pocket. They, too, have been unlucky in terms of xPTS but not much. In their most recent match Strasbourg could easily have won but it was a 2-2 draw away from home against a very strong team, Marseille. Marseille are currently in second place with 56 points. The visitors were gigantic underdogs in this match – priced around 8.00 to win on the betting market. Even so, they recorded many more goal attempts (24-9) shots on goal, shots on goal, attacks and dangerous attacks. They also had around 60% ball possession and created much more in xG – 2.67-1.89. Auxerre, on the other hans, have not lost a match for a while but have had a lot of luck in many games lately and are over-rated by the bookmakers here!

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

北京时间周日晚些时候，法甲第28轮比赛，斯特拉斯堡在美诺球场迎来欧塞尔。这是世界上第四棒的联赛，我和我的球迷都赌得很好!我又一次发现了一个有利可图的投注机会!东道主目前以23分排名第15位。然而，本赛季到目前为止，他们在预期得分(xPTS)方面非常不走运。事实上，就预期得分而言，他们应该得到32.02分。我不会让排名欺骗我——现在我的大多数粉丝都知道了。接受客户最大赌注的最大博彩公司提供约2.00-2.05的赔率，赌东道主让欧塞尔空手而归。毫无疑问，这太夸张了——我估计东道主的胜率是55%。是的，斯特拉斯堡本赛季在主场的战绩确实令人失望。然而，这些年来，在他们吵闹而忠实的粉丝面前，他们一直很强大。此外，在过去10年里，法甲球队平均拥有欧洲最大的主场优势之一——不包括因新冠肺炎限制而没有球迷观看的比赛。我们还必须记住欧塞尔本赛季在客场表现不佳。事实上，本赛季到目前为止，他们在联赛的客场比赛中输掉了9/14，只赢了2/14 !他们似乎缺乏信心，在客场比赛中经常轻易丢球——即使是面对斯特拉斯堡这样的平庸对手。欧塞尔在客场的比分差距非常大——准确地说是12:29。我希望东道主能在90分钟的大部分时间里控制球场上的局势，从开球开始就表现得非常积极。

主队在比赛的各个方面都有优势。到目前为止，他们在这个联赛中已经得分32次。然而，就期望进球数(xG)而言，他们并不幸运，应该得到37.12个进球!的确，在进攻端，两队的差距很大，但在防守端，欧塞尔也没差多少。到目前为止，在法甲联赛中，主队失球46个，客队失球49个。欧塞尔目前在积分榜上排在第17位，事实上，他们的积分和主队一样多。他们在xPTS方面也不走运，但并不多。在最近的一场比赛中，斯特拉斯堡本可以轻松获胜，但在客场2-2战平了一支非常强大的球队马赛。马赛目前以56分排名第二。客队在这场比赛中完全处于下风，在博彩市场上以8英镑左右的价格获胜。即便如此，他们的射门次数(24-9次)更多，包括射正、射正、进攻和危险进攻。他们也有大约60%的控球率，并且在xG - 2.67-1.89的时候创造了更多的机会。另一方面，欧塞尔已经有一段时间没有输过一场比赛了，但在最近的许多比赛中运气都很好，被博彩公司高估了。