In my opinion AZ have really good chances to avoid loss in today's match up and get promotion into next round.

First match between both teams in Italy finished with AZ 2:1 win and they coming for this game with big mental advantage.

AZ don't have any new absences and there is possibility of comeback for their key central midfielder Dani De Wit. Since match against Lazio they played at home against Groningen 5 days ago (1:0 win). Alkmaar is extremely solid team front of home crowd. They didn't lost in 39 of last 46 league matches at home. AZ have superb record in Alkmaar in European Cups. They didn't lost in 32 of 34 home matches in knock out stage of European Cups! AZ played 3 times at home against teams from Serie A in European Cups and never lost.

On the other hand Lazio failed to win in 10 of last 11 away matches at knock out stage of European Cups! They also failed to score in 3 of last 4 away matches against teams from Netherlands. Lazio coming for this game without their captain and best scorer Ciro Immobile - his absence were visible in first match and at the weekend against Bologna (0:0). It's huge blow, no doubt about that. I believe Lazio the biggest priority is Serie A and at the weekend they have enormous game at home in derby against Roma..

All in all, I see bigger chances for hosts than bookies wants to suggest for us in their odds.

在我看来，阿尔克马尔很有机会在今天的比赛中避免输球并晋级下一轮。

两支球队在意大利的首场比赛以阿尔克马尔 2：1获胜而告终，他们以巨大的心理优势来参加这场比赛。

阿尔克马尔没有任何新的缺席，他们的关键中场球员 Dani De Wit 有可能复出。自从对阵拉齐奥后，他们 5 天前在主场对阵格罗宁根（1:0 获胜）。阿尔克马尔是主场前线非常稳固的球队。在过去的 46 场联赛主场比赛中，他们有 39 场没有输球。阿尔克马尔在欧洲杯上在阿尔克马尔的战绩非常出色。欧冠淘汰赛34场主场32场不败！阿尔克马尔在欧战3次在主场对阵意甲球队，从未输过。

而拉齐奥近11场欧冠淘汰赛客场10场未尝胜绩！他们在最近4场客场对阵荷兰球队的比赛中也有3场未能取得进球。拉齐奥在没有他们的情况下参加这场比赛队长和最佳射手 Ciro Immobile - 他的缺席在第一场比赛和周末对阵博洛尼亚 (0:0) 的比赛中显而易见。这是巨大的打击，这一点毋庸置疑。我相信拉齐奥最优先考虑的是意甲联赛，周末他们将在主场对阵罗马的德比大战中大战。

总而言之，我认为主队的机会比数据展示的机会更大。