I waited with this bet until last moment because I wanted to see the most possible line ups for today's match up.

Mariners coming for this game with good mental advantage as they won last match between both teams at McArthur stadium. That was fully deserved result - Mariners had 2.55 expected goals scored in that game.

Mariners are very dangerous team in attack. Only leaders of the table from Melbourne have higher expected goals scored number in current season. Today we will see on the pitch best scorer Cummings, best assistant Kuol or central midfielder Nisbet. They have all required tools to make big troubles for guests.

According to the expected goals conceded model McArthur have the worst defensive formation in whole league. They conceded at least one goal in last 8 matches in a row. Guests conceded 7 goals in last 3 rounds. Today they should have also problems in attack, they coming for this game without best assistant Noone, second-best scorer Davila and important winger Dew (2 goals). It's huge blow and should have very bad impact on their performance today. McArthur today have problems at both ends of the pitch.

On those circumstances I see really good opportunity for hosts to make 3 points.

我一直等到最后一刻才发文，因为我想看看今天比赛的最可能阵容。

水手队以良好的精神优势参加这场比赛，因为他们在麦克阿瑟体育场赢得了两队之间的最后一场比赛。这是当之无愧的结果——水手队在那场比赛中有 2.55 个预期进球。

水手是进攻非常危险的球队。只有来自墨尔本的榜首在本赛季有更高的预期进球数。今天我们将在球场上看到最佳射手卡明斯、最佳助攻库尔或中场尼斯贝特。他们拥有给客人制造威胁的能力。

根据预期失球模型，麦克阿瑟是防守最差的球队。他们在过去的8场比赛中至少丢了一个球。客队近3轮丢7球。今天他们的进攻应该也有问题，他们来参加这场比赛没有最好的助攻努恩，第二好的得分手达维拉和重要的边锋杜（2 个进球）。这是巨大的打击，应该会对他们今天的表现产生非常糟糕的影响。麦克阿瑟今天在球场两端都有问题。

在这种情况下，我认为主队有机会获得 3 分。