For me Tottenham is the favorite here to qualify. Two sides that suffered defeats on Saturday in their respective leagues go head-to-head in London on Wednesday, with a place in the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals at stake.

The latest game in that Tottenham run – a poor spell of UCL results preceded by the come-from-behind victory against Ajax that sent them to the 2018-19 final – saw Milan register their first ever victory over Spurs in a European competition at the fifth attempt.

Brahim Diaz netted the only goal of the game after seven minutes, but Milan may come to rue a pair of headers from Charles de Ketelaere and Malick Thiaw that went just past the post from close range and could have given them a two- or three-goal cushion heading into the second leg. Tottenham did control possession for much of the game, but a front three of Harry Kane, Son Heung-min and Dejan Kulusevski found it hard to break down a strong Milan backline. And, with the need to get a result potentially opening things at the back, they won’t be helped by Eric Dier being suspended for the return leg.

One of the challenges for Spurs in the UEFA Champions League this season has been the consistency of goal scoring. They’ve failed to score in both halves in any of their seven games so far this season, even failing to score at all on three separate occasions.

They’ve also conceded the first goal in five of their seven Champions League games this season. That will be somewhat of a worry as the 13 goals Milan have scored so far this campaign is their most in a single campaign since 2011-12.

The Italian side came through in second place in Group E, at what proved to be a relative canter, despite losing two games – both to eventual group winners Chelsea. It’s part of a rather unwanted record that has seen Milan win just 26% of their Champions League games against English sides (W6 D6 L11), their lowest win rate against sides from any nation (minimum three meetings).

Despite going on to win Group D, it proved a slightly harder task for Tottenham, registering just one more point than Milan (11) in doing so. A campaign that saw them stumble to defeat against Sporting CP in the second round of fixtures eventually ended with a dramatic victory over Marseille when at one point earlier in the day, it looked like they would be crashing out.

It does feel like we can be certain of goals though at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, the last seven UEFA Champions League games there have seen a total of 30 goals scored at an average of 4.3 per game. But Spurs’ only goalless draw in 25 home games in the competition did come in their only such meeting with Milan back in March 2011.

But something is going to have to give on Wednesday. Milan have won just one of their last 14 away games in Champions League knockout stages (D6 L7), whilst Tottenham have lost each of their last four UCL knockout games dating back to their underwhelming final against Liverpool in the 2018-19 season, failing to score each time.

Anyway, there is good news for the Spurs: Tottenham have progressed from two of their last three European ties when losing the first leg, most famously against Ajax in the 2018-19 UEFA Champions League semi-final but also against Pacos de Ferreira in qualifying for the 2021-22 Europa League. Milan have only ever won one of their 21 away games against English sides in all European competitions. They have also only been eliminated in three of their 21 previous European Cup/UEFA Champions League knockout ties when winning the first leg – the last time that occurred being back in 2012-13 against Barcelona.

For me Tottenham is the favorite to qualify here. They are in better form, have more quality and are playing the second leg at home where they will make a much better performance than the first leg. We must remember that Milan was destroyed by Chelsea twice (3:0 and 0:2), a worse side than Tottenham in my opinion. Milan lost the ability they had to control the games and lately we are seeing very open games from them, while Tottenham is an offensive team who feels much better playing with spaces in a box to box game. In this scenario, Tottenham has much more quality upfront and physically is much more accustomed to this kind of games, more usual in the Premier League than in the Serie A.

Furthermore, Conte (Tottenham’s coach) knows very well Milan and how to play against them, which is a good advantage for Tottenham here.

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

对我来说，热刺是最有希望晋级的球队。周六在各自联赛中遭遇失败的两支球队将于周三在伦敦正面交锋，争夺欧冠四分之一决赛的席位。

热刺最近的一场比赛——一场糟糕的欧冠联赛成绩，在对阵阿贾克斯的比赛中反败为，让他们进入了2018-19赛季的决赛——米兰在第五次尝试中首次在欧洲比赛中战胜热刺。

第7分钟，迪亚兹打进了本场比赛的唯一一粒进球，但米兰可能会后悔德凯特拉雷和蒂奥近距离的头球攻门，这两粒头球刚好打过了门柱，本可以让他们有两到三球的优势进入次回合。热刺在比赛的大部分时间里确实控制了控球权，但哈里·凯恩、孙兴慜和德扬·库卢塞夫斯基组成的三前锋很难突破米兰强大的后防线。而且，他们需要得到一个结果，可能会在后面打开局面，埃里克·迪尔在复赛中停赛也不会对他们有帮助。

本赛季热刺在欧冠面临的挑战之一就是进球的稳定性。在本赛季迄今为止的七场比赛中，他们在任何一场比赛的下半场都没有进球，甚至有三场比赛一球未进。

他们在本赛季的七场欧冠比赛中有五场丢了首球。这有点令人担忧，因为米兰本赛季迄今为止打进的13球是他们自2011-12赛季以来单赛季最多的进球。

意大利球队以E组第二的身份出线，尽管输掉了两场比赛——都输给了最终的小组冠军切尔西。这是一个令人讨厌的记录的一部分，米兰在欧冠比赛中对阵英格兰球队(W6 D6 L11)的胜率只有26%，这是他们对阵任何国家球队(至少三次相遇)的最低胜率。

尽管最终以D组第一的身份出线，但事实证明，这对热刺来说是一项略微艰巨的任务，他们只比米兰(11分)多得1分。在第二轮比赛中，他们跌跌撞撞地输给了CP竞技，最终戏剧性地战胜了马赛，而在当天早些时候，他们似乎要崩溃了。

虽然在托特纳姆热刺球场，过去7场欧冠比赛总共有30个进球，场均4.3个。但热刺在25场主场比赛中唯一一场无球战平是在2011年3月与米兰的唯一一场比赛中。

但在周三，有些事情将不得不让步。米兰在欧冠淘汰赛的最近14场客场比赛中只赢了一场(D6 L7)，而热刺在最近4场欧冠淘汰赛中都输了，可以追溯到2018-19赛季对阵利物浦的决赛，每次都没有进球。

无论如何，对热刺来说有个好消息:热刺在最近三场欧战中有两场在首回合输球后晋级，其中最著名的是2018-19赛季欧冠半决赛对阵阿贾克斯，还有2021-22赛季欧联杯预选赛对阵帕科斯·德·费雷拉。米兰在所有欧洲赛事的21场客场对阵英格兰球队中只赢过一场。此外，他们在此前21次欧洲杯/欧冠淘汰赛中，只有3次在首回合获胜的情况下被淘汰，上一次是在2012-13赛季对阵巴塞罗那。

对我来说，热刺是最有希望晋级的球队。他们的状态更好，更有实力，他们将在主场进行第二回合比赛，他们的表现将比第一回合好得多。我们必须记住，米兰曾两次被切尔西击败(3:0和0:2)，在我看来，这支球队比热刺还要糟糕。米兰失去了控制比赛的能力，最近我们看到了他们非常开放的比赛，而热刺是一支进攻球队，他们在禁区对禁区的比赛中感觉更好。在这种情况下，热刺在前场有更高的质量，身体也更习惯于这种比赛，在英超比在意甲更常见。

此外，孔蒂(热刺教练)非常了解米兰以及如何对抗他们，这对热刺来说是一个很好的优势。