Caen VS Sochaux

Caen host Sochaux for this French Ligue 2 battle at Stade Michel d'Ornano early Tuesday morning Beijing time.. I have to disagree with the biggest often relatively smart bookmakers that accept the biggest bets from customers. These bookies see the hosts as solid favorites.. This is, in my view, impossible to justify. In my opinion the visitors are slim favorites! However, all my fans and I need is for the visitors not to lose! There is no doubt about the fact that Sochaux are the better team here – by a decent margin. They have an edge  over Caen in all areas of the game! They currently occupy the 3rd place in the standings with 44 points to their account. However, in terms of expected points (xPTS) they would have deserved more - 48.34 points to be precise. They are definitely – once – again under-valued by the bookmakers here! They have netted the ball a whopping 42 times in Ligue 2 so far this season. This is the highest number in this league. For example Le Havre, who currently top the standings, have scored just 36 goals. Caen's offense is pretty mediocre, for instance St. Etienne, currently in 13th place, have netted the ball 28 times. Caen's offense often lacks structure, speed, creativity and passing accuracy – especially against top-teams.. In terms of defensive quality the difference between the two teams is smaller. Caen have conceded 25 goals but their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is 27.98. Sochaux have conceded just 22 goals and have an excellent defensive structure. I also trust their coach a lot.

The visitors have been in better form than Caen recently both results-wise and on the pitch. They have not lost any of their most recent six games winning four of these matches. In their most recent match they crushed Annecy, a decent team - currently in 11th place - 5-1 at home after a fine performance both in terms of offensive and defensive performance. They allowed Annecy only two shots on goal. Yes, the final score does flatter them but they fully deserved the three points. Before this they lacked some offensive creativity away from home against Quevilly Rouen and no goals were scored. I want to mention, though, that the hosts were narrow favorites in this game according to the bookies and played above their normal level defensively. On the 11th of February Sochaux would have deserved a win at home against Le Havre after having 58% ball possession and clearly the better team on the pitch. The hosts recorded many more goal attempts, shots on goal (8-2), total passess, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks. Caen have not lost since the 31st of January but were very lucky to beat Guingamp, a mediocre team, in their most recent game 2-1 away from home. Guingamp had 56% ball possession and recorded many more goal attempts (12-5) as well as shots on goal.