Genoa VS Cosenza

Genoa welcome Cosenza for this Italian Serie B round 28 clash at Stadio Luigi Ferraris  early Tuesday morning Beijing time. With today's expected lineups I have to side with the visitors. Even so, there is no doubt about the fact that Genoa are the better team here. They do have an edge over the visitors in all areas of the game. They currently occupy the 3rd place in the standings with 47 points to their account. However, in terms of expected points (xPTS) they would have deserved just 43.34 points. They are definitely – once – again overvalued by the betting market here! They have netted the ball 31 times in Serie B so far this season. Indeed, their offense is far from top-5 level! Bari, currently in second place, have scored 45 goals! Moreover, Spal, in the 17th place in the league table, have also netted the ball 31 times! Genoa's defense is solid though and they have conceded 19 goals so far. Their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is, however, 25.87. They often aim at securing a one-goal-lead, even at home. This, of course, decreases the probability of a win by more than one goal's margin. Indeed, all my fans and I need here is for Cosenza not to lose by more than one goal's difference. The probability for this is 67%. The chance for Genoa to win is, based on my sophisticated in-depth analysis, 62%. 

Genoa have not been in very good form lately. Indeed, they have won just two of their most recent six matches. In their most recent game they were lame offensively. Their attacks lacked speed, creativity and passing accuracy at crucial moments.. It was a goalless draw away from home against Cagliari. Genoa were favorites in this game on the betting market but only recorded one shot on target! The hosts, however, did not record any shots on goal! Before this they beat Spal 3-0 at home and did deserve the three points. Once again they defended well. Even so, the final score does flatter them! Cosenza took a 2-1 in their most recent match over Reggina. Surely a massive boost to their confidence. They did record more shots on goal, scoring attempts, attacks and dangerous attacks. They were clearly undervalued by the bookies in this clash – priced around 4.00 to win. They have taken just 26 points but would have deserved more in terms of xPTS. They are in a fierce fight to avoid relegation and have a genuine chance to succeed in this! Before the win over Reggina they suffered a heavy defeat away from home against Como as big underdogs and were not the better team. Even so, they had their chances and had 48% ball possession, and recorded 14 scoring attempts and five shots on goal. They made too many silly defensive mistakes but today I expect them to improve in this area of the game and be very defensive here. A draw would surely satisfy them..