Cambuur vs Go Ahead Eagles

Cambuur host Go Ahead Eagles for this Eredivisie battle at Cambuur Stadion in Leeuwarden) early Monday morning Beijing time. This league is of pretty good level by European standards but we cannot expect a particularly entertaining or high-level game by Eredivisie standards here! There is no doubt about the fact that the visitors are the stronger team by pure class here. However, the margin between the two teams is not much smaller than most football fans probably realize.. I must disagree with the biggest, pretty often somewhat smart bookmakers that offer the largest betting limits.These bookies see Go Ahead Eagles as solid offering them odds of around 2.50-2.60 to travel home with all three points in the pocket.. With today's expected lineups I see the hosts as narrow favorites! A draw would be enough and the probability of this result is higher than the bookies think - 33%.  Cambuur will be missing van der Water, Bangura, Hoedemakers. Gullit and Tol are questionable. The visitors are without Adekanye and Willumsson. Kuipers' situation is unclear at the time of writing this preview. Cambuur do not have a good home record this season but the home advantage is still there! Their fans have, understandably,  been frustrated this season but are still loyal. Go Ahead Eagles, on the other hand, have not been impressive at all on the road winning just 2/11 matches in this league so far this season. They seem to lack confidence and often make silly mistakes away from home.  Moreover, they have lost four of their five most recent away games. 

In their most recent games the visitors had some luck on their side and took a point from Emmen away from home. Let's not forget that Emmen are a pretty limited team and are currently in 16th place in this league with a total of 18 clubs. Even so, Emmen recorded much more in expected goals (xG) – 1.56-0.79 -  to be precise. The visitors are currently in 12th place with 26 points in the pocket but I expect them to drop down in the standings as the season progresses. I have them in the 15th place in my power ratings that reflects the teams' pure class. We must remember that last season Cambuur finished in 9th place with 39 points. This is three points more than the visitors. Not that much has, after all, changed for this season.. Yes, Cambuur's season has been a huge disappointment but the bookies are now massively underestimating them. They can, and surely will, improve and have a genuine chance of avoiding relegation  -  I do trust their coach. In terms of expected points (xPTS) they would have deserved much more points than the actual 13! They fought well in their most recent match despite losing to a very good team AZ Alkmaar 1-2 away from home as massive underdogs according to the betting market. Alkmaar only recorded a little more in expected goals (xG) 2.54-2.19. Offense has been a huge problem for them this season but their xG is much higher than the actual numbers of goals scored – 19.88 to be precise. Lastly I want to mention that according to a very well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com, Cambuur players have a total market value of over 17 million euros. The visitors' squad is valued at only around 12 million..