Fredericia VS Koge

Frederica host Koge for this Danish First Division clash at Monjasa Park early Saturday morning Beijing time. This is the second-level of Danish football and is not of high-level by European standards. The difference compared to the first tier is substantial. However, I have, once, again spotted a very lucrative betting opportunity here! I cannot agree with the biggest, often pretty smart bookmakers that accept the biggest bets. These bookies do not see an actual favorite here and offer both team odds of around 2.55 to take all three points. In my view the visitors are solid narrow favorites. Koge have clear edge in all areas of the game. However, the biggest difference in the visitors' favor is in defensive quality. Indeed, Koge have allowed 25 goals so far in this league so far this season. However, their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is just 23.11. The hosts' defense has been very leaky this season and they have allowed 36 goals so far! Their defense lacks structure, skill and their defenders – and pretty often midfielders as well – make too many silly mistakes, even at home. They have conceded a whopping 15 goals in their most recent five games in the First Division! In some games some of their defenders have seemed lazy – even a bit unmotivated.. They are currently in the 11th place in this league with a total of 12 clubs with just 15 points to their account.

They hosts should have potential for some improvement but the bookies eem to give this potential too much emphasis. They will most certainly have to fight hard to avoid relegation later this spring. I do not trust their overrated coach and their fans have also been – totally understandably, very frustrated by their team – especially on the 19th of last month when they lost to Hillerod at home 0-2. It was an extremely weak performance as solid favorites according to the bookies – they were priced around 1.90 to win. During - and especially after the game - it was very clear that once again they bookies had overvalued Frederica! The visitors recorded many more scoring attempts (17-6), attacks and dangerous attacks. Fredirica were very lame offensively, lacking passing accuracy and creativity and only managed two shots on goal – Hillrod's number was six. They failed to score also in their most recent match and were crushed by Sonderjyske 4-0! The match was more balanced than the final score would suggest but Frederica were still very bad in this game. They have scored 23 goals so far – Koge's number is nit significantly higher - 27 – but at the moment the difference also in this area of the game is clear in the visities favor. They have not lost any of their latest seven games – winning five of them! In their most recent game they faced Vejle, who currently top the standings with 41 points, at home and no goals were scored. Koge were priced around 4.50 but placed well! Koge had 53% ball possession and recorded more scoring attempts, shots on goal, attacks and dangerous attacks – 61-36.