I see Osasuna favorite here. This is the first leg of the Spanish Cup 1/2 finals.

They are a very competitive team, seated one position above Athletic in La Liga and making a great season. Have great players in all positions, and all of them have a great chemistry because they have been playing together for a long time.

At home they are a similar team to Athletic: ultra competitive, with a lot of pace and pressure, huge fans support… and a very difficult team to beat. In the weekend they played against Sevilla using a B squad with 8 changes, and they were able to outplay and beat them playing with a lot of personality. So for this game the starter lineup will be at 100% and full rested (as opposite as Athletic).

This match is historical for them and have the things needed to stop Athletic: good pace, a strong midfield and defense, and a strong team in the physical aspect.

On the other hand, Athletic is probably in the worst moment of the season. If we look at the last 15 games in La Liga, Athletic is the 3rd worst team. They have problems everywhere. Upfront, although they have quality, are lacking goals and are struggling to convert the chances they have. Their topscorer Sancet has scored only in 2 of the last 8 games, the second topscorer Iñaki Williams have not scored a goal since october, third topscorer Gorka Guruzeta scored his last goal on November and 4th topscorer Nico Williams has scored in just 2 of the last 9 games.

In defense, they are also conceding much more goals than usual. This is due to the injuries (so coach Valverde is forced to make many changes in the defense) - best defender Iñigo Martinez has been injured for a long time and starter CB Yeray has been injured lately - and also the lack of confidence. The team is making mistakes, lacking concentration and conceding goals. The best example is at the weekend, with two own goals against Girona.

During the week the team had to deal with many players injured and recovering, several of them starters such as Unai Simon (goalkeeper), defenders couple Iñigo Martinez and Yeray, starter midfielders Morcillo and Ander Herrera, starter attacker Nico Williams (probably his best player) and rotation striker Raul Garcia. All of them have been included in the list for this game, but on the training at 27th they were out along with others like Berenguer and Berchiche.

Therefore, Athletic has a serious problem with the squad for this match. At least 5-6 of their starters aren’t at 100% because they are back from a long term injury or have been injured during this week. This meant that coach Valverde was forced to use a strong lineup in the weekend game against Girona, so physically the team will also be below Osasuna who rested his best players and have no injuries.

I believe it will be a tight game, probably Athletic is slightly favorite to qualify, but I’m sure that it’s something that will be done in the second game. In this first game at El Sadar, I’m expecting a very strong performance by Osasuna, who has the weapons needed to equalize Athletic’s intensity and even to surpass them.

我看好奥萨苏纳。这是西班牙国王杯半决赛的首回合比赛。

他们是一支非常有竞争力的球队，在西甲比毕尔巴鄂竞技高出一个位置，并创造了一个伟大的赛季。在各个位置都有伟大的球员，他们都有很好的化学反应，因为他们在一起踢了很长时间。

在主场，他们是一支与毕尔巴鄂竞技相似的球队：极具竞争力，节奏快，压力大，球迷支持多……而且是一支很难击败的球队。在周末对阵塞维利亚的比赛中，他们使用了 8 次换人的 B 队，他们能够击败并击败了充满个性的球队。所以对于这场比赛，首发阵容将达到 100% 并且完全休息（与竞技相反）。

这场比赛对他们来说是历史性的，并且拥有阻止毕尔巴鄂竞技所需的一切：良好的速度、强大的中场和防守，以及身体素质方面的强队。

另一方面，毕尔巴鄂竞技可能正处于本赛季最糟糕的时刻。如果我们看过去的 15 场比赛西甲，竞技是第三差的球队。他们到处都有问题。前期，虽然他们有质量，但缺乏目标并且正在努力转换他们拥有的机会。他们的头号射手桑塞特在过去 8 场比赛中只进球了 2 场，第二头号射手伊尼亚基威廉姆斯自 10 月以来没有进球，第三头号射手戈尔卡古鲁泽塔在 11 月打进了他的最后一球，第四名头号射手尼科威廉姆斯在过去的两场比赛中只进球了9场比赛。

在防守方面，他们的失球也比平时多得多。这是因为伤病（所以主教练巴尔韦德被迫在防守上做出很多改变）——最佳后卫伊尼戈·马丁内斯已经伤了很长时间，首发中后卫耶雷最近也受伤了——还有信心不足。球队犯了错误，注意力不集中，还丢球。最好的例子是在周末，对阵赫罗纳的两个乌龙球。

在这一周里，球队不得不应对许多受伤和康复的球员，其中有几名先发球员如 Unai Simon（守门员）、后卫夫妇 Iñigo Martinez 和 Yeray、首发中场球员 Morcillo 和 Ander Herrera、首发攻击手 Nico Williams（可能是他最好的球员）和轮换前锋 Raul Garcia。他们都被列入了本场比赛的大名单，但在27日的训练中，他们与贝伦格尔、贝尔奇切等人一起出局。

因此，毕尔巴鄂竞技本场比赛的阵容存在严重问题。他们的首发球员中至少有 5-6 人没有达到 100%，因为他们从长期伤病中恢复或在本周受伤。这意味着主帅巴尔韦德在周末对阵赫罗纳的比赛中被迫使用强大的阵容，因此球队在体能上也将低于奥萨苏纳，奥萨苏纳已经让他最好的球员得到了休息并且没有伤病。

我相信这将是一场紧张的比赛，可能毕尔巴鄂竞技是晋级的热门人选，但我确信这会在第二场比赛中完成。在第一场比赛中，我期待一个非常强大的奥萨苏纳的表现，他拥有平衡甚至超越竞技强度所需的武器。