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外籍分析师
芬兰职业体育分析师,已从业20年
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An interesting match in Argentina 阿甲 科尔多瓦中央VS阿青年人

2023-02-28

比赛分析

阿甲

已完赛

星期二2023-02-28 08:30

解读理由

Central Cordoba SDE VS Argentinos Juniors

Central Cordoba host Argentinos Jrs for this Argentinian Liga profesional round 5 clash at Estadio Unico Madre de Ciudades Tuesday morning Beijing time. This league is of lower level as a whole by international standards than many football fans and bettors presumably realize - taking into account what a stunning football country Argentina is in terms of football culture and – of course, Argentina lifted the World Cup trophy last December in Qatar! There is no doubt about the fact that the visitors are the better teams by pure class. They do have an edge in all areas of the game. Even so, their start to the season has not been overly convincing.. I most definitely cannot agree with the biggest, usually relatively sharp bookmakers that see the visitors as very clear favorites and offer them odds of around 1.80 to win this clash. We must not forget that the home advantage is substantial in this league and I am positive the hosts' loyal fans will offer them a massive boost here. I expect them to be pretty cautious as they cannot be high on confidence at the moment.. I believe that the draw would be a somewhat satisfactory result for both teams.. This result would be enough for my fans and me to win with the recommended +0.5 goals handicap on the host. I see the goal expectancy here as marginally lower than the bookies do, Based on my sophisticated in-depth analysis the visitors have a 44% chance to win. The season has been very hard for Central Cordoba and they are currently the rock bottom team in this league with a total of 28 teams. However, they have played one game less than most teams and we should not let the standings fool us. Four rounds of football is, after all, not much.. Even so, I have lowered their power rating that reflects the teams' pure class from my in-depth preseason analysis. The bookies have clearly lost trust in them..

We must remember that last season the hosts finished in 16th place with a decent 34 points in the pocket. Not that much has really changed from last season.. Argentinos Jrs are not a top team in Argentina either and finished in 8th place last season with 43 points. They are currently in the 14th place with six points – two wins and two losses is their record in this league so far. I expect both teams to climb up in the standings as the season progresses - perhaps even quite a lot. The hosts are yet to score a goal but have at least taken one point. In their most recent match they lost to Talleres Cordoba away from home as very clear underdogs – priced around 6.50 to win by the bookies. No, they were not the better team but with some luck could easily have taken a point.. The hosts had 56% ball possession and recorded more shots on goal and scoring attempts. However, Central Cordoba created more attacks – 119-105. Luckily for them their defense has been pretty okay and they have allowed just five goals. Their number of expected goals (xG) is 2.65 but their coach does have a lot of work to do to make this team attack faster and be more creative. Argentinos Jrs have lost both of their away games and are often pretty cautious – too passive I would say - on the road. In their most recent game they did beat Belgrano, who were promoted to this league for this season, at home 3-0 and did deserve to win. They were clear favorites in this game on the betting market. The 3-0 final score does flatter them massively though. I want to mention that their player Redondo Solari was sent off in the 41st minute. The visitors' Rebola was sent off in the 55th minute.

本译文使用有道机器翻译,仅供参考:

北京时间周二上午,中央科尔多瓦主场迎战阿根廷队,迎接西甲职业联赛第5轮的比赛。从国际标准来看,这个联赛的整体水平比许多球迷和投注者可能意识到的要低——考虑到阿根廷在足球文化方面是一个多么令人惊叹的足球国家——当然,阿根廷去年12月在卡塔尔举起了世界杯奖杯!毫无疑问,客队在级别上是更好的球队。他们在比赛的各个领域都有优势。即便如此,他们本赛季的开局并没有太令人信服。我绝对不同意那些规模最大、通常比较精明的博彩公司的说法,他们认为客队非常受欢迎,并为他们提供1.80左右的赔率来赢得这场比赛。我们不能忘记,在这个联赛中主场优势是巨大的,我相信东道主的忠实球迷会给他们带来巨大的提升。我预计他们会非常谨慎,因为他们目前不可能有很高的信心。我相信这场平局对两队来说都是令人满意的结果。这个结果对我和我的粉丝来说足够了,因为东道主的推荐进球数是+0.5。我认为客队的进球预期比博彩公司的预期要低一些。根据我复杂深入的分析,客队有44%的机会获胜。本赛季对中央科尔多瓦来说非常艰难,他们目前是联赛中垫底的球队,共有28支球队。然而,他们比大多数球队少踢了一场比赛,我们不应该被排名欺骗。四个回合的足球毕竟不算多。即便如此,我还是从我的季前赛深度分析中降低了他们的实力评级,这反映了球队的纯粹水平。博彩公司显然已经失去了对他们的信任。

我们必须记住,上赛季东道主以可观的34分排名第16位。与上一季相比,变化不大。阿根廷队也不是阿根廷的顶级球队,上赛季以43分排名第8位。他们目前积6分排在第14位,2胜2负是他们迄今为止在联赛中的战绩。我希望随着赛季的进展,两支球队的排名都能上升,甚至可能会上升很多。东道主还没有进一球,但至少拿到了一分。在最近的一场比赛中,他们在客场输给了塔列斯·科尔多瓦,当时他们显然处于劣势——博彩公司为他们开出了6.50美元的赔率。不,他们不是更好的球队,但如果运气好的话,他们可以轻松拿到一分。东道主的控球率为56%,射门次数和得分次数更多。然而,中央科尔多瓦队创造了更多的攻击- 119-105。幸运的是,他们的防守还不错,只丢了5个球。他们的预期进球数(xG)是2.65个,但他们的教练确实有很多工作要做,以使这支球队进攻更快,更有创造力。阿根廷的小球员已经输掉了两场客场比赛,他们在客场的表现非常谨慎——我认为他们太被动了。在最近的一场比赛中,他们在主场3-0击败了本赛季升入本联赛的贝尔格拉诺,这是他们应得的胜利。在这场比赛中,他们在博彩市场上明显是最受欢迎的。最终3-0的比分确实让他们非常高兴。我想说的是,他们的球员索拉里在第41分钟被罚下。客队的雷波拉在第55分钟被罚下。

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