CD Copiapo S.A. VS O.Higgins

Copiapo welcome O'Higgins for this Chilean Primera Division round 6 clash at Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla Tuesday morning Beijing time. This league is of relatively low level compared to most European leagues as well for example the Brazilian Serie A or the Argentinian Liga Profesional. We cannot expect a particularly entertaining game here. However, I see an interesting betting opportunity here! The biggest, often pretty smart bookies that accept the biggest bets from customers see the hosts only as slim favorites offering them odds of around 2.60 to send O'Higgins without any points.. I certainly see Copiapo as bigger favorites than the bookies here. However, the recommended bet is for Copiapo to take at least a point (+0.5 goals handicap option). I see this match as more low-scoring and the draw as a more probable result than the betting market does. There have been more goals scored than there should have been in terms of expected goals in several of both teams' latest matches. This probably affects the odds on the totals and the draw to some extent as well.. The probability of under 2.5 total goals to be scored is 60%. The hosts were promoted to this level for this season and I do not expect them to have a particularly strong season - no top-8 position I mean. They do have quality in all areas of the game to compete successfully at this level and have according to my sources have a fine team spirit! I do not understand why the bookies do not trust them more..Yes, results have been disappointing so far but they have performed better than the standings suggest..

No, I will not let the standings fool me! The hosts are currently in the 15th best in this league with a total of 16 clubs. They have allowed way too many goals so far – no denying that Luckily the visitors offense often lacks speed and creativity away from home. The hosts' defenders and midfielders have made too many individual mistakes so far. Even so, their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is just 8.97. The actual number is whopping - 13! However, they took their first win in their most recent match away from home over Curico Unido. 1-2 was the final score – sure a massive boost to their confidence ahead of this game! Copiapo do have very enthusiastic and loyal fans who are surely very excited by the promotion to the highest level! I am not sure if the bookies give this factor enough emphasis. Copiapo were priced around 5.50-6.00 to beat Curico Unido but it was very clear after the game that the betting market had underestimated them. They had only 38% ball possession but did record many more goal attempts (18-14) and shots on goal - 8-5. O'Higgins started the league season pretty well taking two wins but have been quite passive and lame offensively in their most recent two games. They lost both of these games at home – without even scoring a goal. They were favorites in both of these games according to the bookies. I expect them to do worse than last season when they finished in 8th place with 44 points but were lucky in terms of expected points (xPTS). I think their coach is overrated and many players played above their normal level in very many games last season.

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

北京时间周二上午，科皮亚波欢迎奥希金斯参加智利甲级联赛第6轮的比赛。与大多数欧洲联赛相比，这个联赛的水平相对较低，例如巴西甲级联赛或阿根廷甲级联赛。我们不能指望这里会有一场特别有趣的比赛。然而，我在这里看到了一个有趣的赌博机会!最大的、通常是非常聪明的博彩公司接受客户的最大赌注，他们认为主持人的胜算很小，给他们提供2.60左右的赔率，让奥希金斯不得分。我当然认为科皮亚波比这里的博彩公司更受欢迎。然而，推荐的赌注是科皮亚波至少拿一分(+0.5球的不利选择)。我认为这场比赛的得分更低，平局的结果比博彩市场的结果更有可能。两队最近几场比赛的进球数都超过了预期的进球数。这可能会在一定程度上影响总数和抽签的赔率。总进球数低于2.5的概率为60%。东道主本赛季升到了这个级别，我不指望他们有一个特别强的赛季——我的意思是说他们没有进入前8。他们确实在游戏的各个领域都有实力在这个级别的比赛中成功竞争，而且根据我的消息来源，他们有良好的团队精神!我不明白为什么博彩公司不再信任他们。是的，到目前为止，结果令人失望，但他们的表现比积分榜所显示的要好。

不，我不会被排名骗了!东道主目前在联赛16支球队中排名第15。到目前为止，他们失球太多了——不可否认，幸运的是，客队在客场的进攻经常缺乏速度和创造力。到目前为止，东道主的后卫和中场球员犯了太多的个人错误。即便如此，他们的预期失球数(xGA)只有8.97。实际的数字是惊人的——13!然而，他们在最近的客场比赛中战胜了库里科伊杜，取得了他们的第一场胜利。最终比分是1-2，这无疑极大地提升了他们在比赛前的信心!科皮亚波确实有非常热情和忠诚的球迷，他们肯定对升级到最高水平感到非常兴奋!我不确定博彩公司是否对这个因素给予了足够的重视。科皮亚波以5.50-6.00的价格击败库里科·杜杜，但很明显，比赛结束后，博彩市场低估了他们。他们只有38%的控球率，但确实记录了更多的进球次数(18-14)和射门次数(8-5)。奥希金斯本赛季开局不错，拿下了两场胜利，但在最近的两场比赛中，他们的进攻相当被动和蹩脚。他们在主场输掉了这两场比赛，甚至一球未进。根据博彩公司的说法，他们在这两场比赛中都是最受欢迎的。我预计他们的表现会比上赛季更差，上赛季他们以44分排名第8位，但在预期积分(xPTS)方面很幸运。我认为他们的教练被高估了，上赛季很多球员的表现都超出了正常水平。