Plymouth vs Cheltenham

Plymouth welcome Cheltenham for this EFL Trophy semi-final battle at home Park early Wednesday morning Beijing time. This competition is not much-respected overall and is surely not either team's main priority. However, I believe the visitors to be slightly more motivated as Plymouth have a massive situation to be promoted to the Championship for next season! Indeed, they are currently in second place in the standings with 68 points after Sheffield Wednesday – with one more game played though. They have an excellent score difference having netted the ball a whopping 57 times. This is the second-highest number of goals in this league.Cheltenham, on the other hand, are having a somewhat disappointing season. Indeed, they are in 19th place with only 33 points in the pocket. Last season they finished in 15th place and I have them in the 16th power rating that reflects the teams' pure class. Their number of expected points (xPTS) is 37.12. They have scored 25 goals so far and allowed 40 goals – less than Charlton, currently in 11th place.. The hosts have conceded 32 goals in this league so far this season. Their defense has not exactly impressed me this season and have allowed 32 goals. However, their number of goals allowed (xGA) is a little lower - 30.02 to be precise. Indeed, in terms of offensive quality the hosts have a very clear edge. Cheltenham's number of expected goals (xG) is 29.12. There is no doubt about the fact that Plymouth are clear favorites and have a 55% chance to win during the 90 minutes of play

.At home Plymouth have been  very strong winning 14/16 matches in League One at their stadium in front of very enthusiastic fans! However, I was not overly impressed by their performance last Saturday at home against a pretty lowly team, Fleetwood, no goals were scored. Yes, Plymouth had 65% ball possession but only recorded two shots on goal! Their offense lacked creativity, speed and passing accuracy at critical moments. They recorded 0.9 in xG – Fleetwood's number was 0.70. They are having a much better season than most football journalists, the betting market or I would have believed before the season started. Last season they finished in 7h place with 80 points but were a little unlucky in terms of expected points (xPTS) though. I was expecting for them to improve this season but the level their offense has been at is still surprising. Even so, they would have to clearly improve from their latest game to win by more than one goal's margin. If they do not – my fans and I will win with the +1.5 goals handicap! The probability of winning is 71%. 

Early into the season I quickly raised the hosts power rating that reflects the teams' pure class from my sophisticated in-depth analysis but did lower it after last Saturday.. Before the match against Fleetwood they beat Oxford United, a pretty dangerous team, 3-1 away from home priced around 3.60 to win by the bookies. The win was a deserved one as they had 53% ball possession and recorded many more scoring attempts (14-9), shots on target and xG – 1.43-0.64. Cheltenham, on the other hand, lost to Barnsley at home 0-4 as clear underdogs but the final score is extremely misleading as the visitors only had 51% ball possession and one more scoring attempt - 9-8. They recorded only 0.57 in xG – Cheltenham's number was 0.49. This heavy defeat probably affects the odds too much here..  Before this the hosts beat Cambridge 2-1 away from home. Plymouth beat Chelteanham a month ago in League One 4-2 at home but the match was more balanced1 Plymouth recorded six shots on goal – the visitors managed four.