In my opinion Millwall have really good chances to make at least one point in today's match up.

Burnley have really comfortable situation in league table as they are already 15 points above third team. For them this is not 'must win' game. Millwall is just one point behind 4th Luton and will give absolutely everything to win this game, especially front of home crowd.

Millwall is extremely solid team at home. In current season they didn't lost in 13 of 15 home league matches. According to the expected goals scored/conceded models they deserved such results. They scored 24 goals at home (23.61 expected goals scored), they conceded 11 goals (13.39 expected goals conceded).

Burnley results on the road also looks really good as they won 9 of 15 away matches so far, but according to the expected goals scored/conceded models that wasn't deserved result at all. Burnley scored 27 goals in away matches, but according to the model they should scored only 16.44(!!!) They conceded 14 goals, but according to the model they should concede 17.82.

In addition to that Burnley today will play without many key players: striker Rodriguez (9 goals), winger Tella (12 goals), central defender Harwood-Bellis (26 matches), winger Benson (25 matches) and central defender Beyer (20 matches).

On those circumstances double chance on Millwall looks like very solid play.

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

在我看来米尔沃尔很有机会在今天的比赛中至少得一分。

伯恩利在积分榜上的处境非常不错，他们已经领先第三队15分了。对他们来说，这不是“必须赢”的游戏。米尔沃尔只落后第4卢顿1分，他们将竭尽全力赢得这场比赛，尤其是在主场观众面前。

米尔沃尔在主场是一支非常稳固的球队。本赛季，他们在15场主场比赛中有13场没有输球。根据预期进球数/失球数模型，他们应该得到这样的结果。他们在主场打入24球(预期进球数23.61球)，丢11球(预期失球13.39球)。

伯恩利在客场的成绩看起来也很不错，到目前为止他们在15场客场比赛中赢了9场，但根据预期的进球数/失球模型，这根本不是应得的结果。伯恩利在客场打进27球，但根据模型，他们应该只进16.44球(!!)他们丢了14个球，但根据模型，他们应该丢17.82个球。

除此之外，伯恩利今天将缺少许多关键球员:前锋罗德里格斯(9球)，边锋特拉(12球)，中卫哈伍德-贝利斯(26场比赛)，边锋本森(25场比赛)和中卫拜尔(20场比赛)。

在这种情况下，米尔沃尔不败看起来非常可靠。