Getafe vs Valencia

Getafe and Valencia lock horns in this Spanish LaLiga round 23 battle at Coliseum Alfonso Perez early Tuesday morning Beijing time. This is the second-best league in the world after the English Premier League. The stakes are high as both teams are seriously threatened by relegation to LaLiga2! Especially for Valencia it would be a massive humiliation and a huge surprise to probably more than 99% of the football journalists, the betting market and me as well. The visitors are six-time Spanish champions and have not played outside of La Liga since the 1986-87 campaign. Indeed, it has been a very disappointing season for the visitors who have picked up only 20 points from their first 21 matches, which has left them in 18th position in the standings! Ruben Baraja was confirmed as Valencia's head coach on the 14th of February. He is back in a managerial role for the first time since leaving Real Zaragoza in November 2020 but I think he is an overrated coach. Yes, Baraja has won two La Liga titles, the Copa del Rey, the UEFA Cup and the UEFA Super Cup during his time as a player. The new coach will surely boost Valencia here but I think this factor has been given too much emphasis on the betting market.. According to my sources Valencia have a very bad team spirit at the moment - this is hardly a surprise.. They have lost five matches in a row and seem to be very low in confidence. Furthermore, they have scored just two goals in these five games. Moreover, they have not won a game in LaLiga since the 10th of November last year! Even so, the biggest, usually relatively sharp bookmakers see them as favorites! I must disagree with these bookies..

Yes, I am, of course, aware that they would have deserved many more points in terms of expected points (xPTS) than the actual 20. Taking their potential and the ”new coach boost” I see them as slightly the better team and at a neutral location they would be slim favorites. However, LaLiga has one of the biggest home advantages of the top-25 leagues on the planet! Let's remember that Valencia have won just one game on the road in LaLiga this season! Taking the home advantage into account Getage should be narrow favorites. Odds of around 3.10 on them to win are widely available on the betting market but my recommendation is still the +0.5 goals handicap. The match is expected to be a low-scoring one by the bookies and me and it is wise to choose a handicap that wins in case this is a draw – this result would not deserve no one.. Getafe have taken 18 points so far but their number of xPTS is much higher - 24.12. Their offense unarguably does lack power but their defense has been okay - they have allowed 28 goals. Their expected number of goals allowed (xGA) is just 24.76. They have not won for a long time but have now taken two draws in a row against a very big team, Atletico Madrid (4th place), and dangerous Rayo Vallecano (6th). These draws surely boost their self-confidence! Lastly I want to mention that the hosts will be missing Alena. The visitors have more absentees: Castillejo, Cavani, Correia, Domenach and Nico are all out.