Plymouth VS Fleetwood

Plymouth welcome Fleetwood for this English League One battle at Home Park late Saturday morning. This the third tier of English football and is certainly the best third-highest level on the planet. I do not often recommend a bet on a heavy favorite at relatively low odds but will make an exception here. The difference in pure class between these two teams is substantial! Plymouth currently top the standings with 67 points and have an excellent score difference! They have netted the ball a whopping 57 times. This is the highest number of goals in this league. Fleetwood, on the other hand, are having another disappointing season. Indeed, they are in the 17th place with only 35 points in the pocket. They have scored 34 goals so far and I must highlight that in terms of offensive quality the hosts have a massive edge. Fleetwood's number of expected goals (xG) is just 31.54. However, defensively they have moderately improved from last season when they allowed 8 goals and finished in 20th place. Indeed, they have conceded 34 goals in this league so far this season. Hosts' defense has not fully convinced defensively this season and have allowed 32 goals. However, their number of goals allowed (xGA) is 29.32 and do have a decent edge in this area of the game too.

At home Plymouth have been stunningly good winning 14/15 matches at their stadium in front of very loud fans! It seems the bookmakers do not give this factor enough emphasis.. Their score difference at home is also great - 32:12! They are having a much better season than most football analysts, the betting market or I would have believed. Last season they finished in 7h place with 80 points but were unlucky in terms of expected points (xPTS). I was expecting for them to improve this season but the level their offense has been at is still surprising. Early into the season I quickly raised their power rating that reflects the teams' pure class from my sophisticated in-depth analysis but the bookmakers still seem to have their doubts and under-value them here.. Odds of around 1.65 for the hosts to win and that's too high! In their most recent match they beat Oxford United, a dangerous team, 3-1 away from home priced around 3.60 to win on the betting market. The win was a fully deserved one as they had 53% ball possession and recorded many more scoring attempts (14-9), shots on goal and xG – 1.43-0.64! Fleetwood, on the other hand, were very lucky to beat Peterborough at home 1-0 after just 32% ball possession and one shot on goal! Moreover, the visitors recorded 0.89 in xG – Fleetwood's number was just 0.28! I believe this win affects the odds too much here.

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

这是英格兰足球的第三梯队，当然也是这个星球上最好的第三梯队。我通常不建议在赔率相对较低的热门赛事上下注，但这里例外。这两支球队在级别上的差距是巨大的!普利茅斯目前以67分排名第一，并且有非常大的比分差距!他们的得分次数高达57次。这是联赛中进球数最多的。另一方面，弗利特伍德又经历了一个令人失望的赛季。事实上，他们排在第17位，仅积35分。到目前为止，他们已经进了34个球，我必须强调，在进攻质量方面，东道主有巨大的优势。弗利特伍德的预期进球数(xG)只有31.54个。然而，与上赛季相比，他们的防守有了一定的进步，上赛季他们失球8个，排在第20位。事实上，他们本赛季到目前为止已经在联赛中丢了34个球。本赛季东道主的防守并没有完全说服对方，失球32个。然而，他们的失球数(xGA)是29.32，在这方面也有不错的优势。

在主场，普利茅斯在球迷的欢呼声中以惊人的成绩赢得了14/15场比赛!似乎博彩公司没有给予这个因素足够的重视。他们在主场的比分差距也很大——32:12!他们这个赛季的表现比大多数足球分析师、博彩市场和我所相信的要好得多。上赛季他们以80分的成绩排在第7位，但在预期积分(xPTS)方面并不幸运。我期待着他们这个赛季的进步，但是他们的进攻水平仍然令人惊讶。赛季初，我迅速提高了他们的实力评级，这反映了我复杂的深入分析，但博彩公司似乎仍然有他们的怀疑和低估他们。东道主获胜的赔率约为1.65，这太高了!在最近的一场比赛中，他们在客场3-1击败了牛津联队，这是一支危险的球队，在博彩市场上，他们赢球的价格约为3.60英镑。这场胜利是完全应得的，因为他们有53%的控球率，记录了更多的得分尝试(14-9)，射门和xG - 1.43-0.64!另一方面，弗利特伍德非常幸运，在只有32%的控球率和一次射门后，在主场1-0击败了彼得伯勒!此外，访问者的xG为0.89，弗利特伍德的数字仅为0.28!我认为这场胜利对赔率的影响太大了。