Reading VS Watford

Reading host Watford for this English Championship round 30 battle at Select Car Leasing Stadium Saturday evening Beijing time. However, in reality the hosts have played 28 matches and Watford 29 games so far. This is the second-highest level of English football and is certainly the best 2nd tier in the world. By pure class Watford are the better team but not by a wide margin. In terms of offensive quality the teams are almost equal in my opinion. Indeed, Reading have scored 31 goals but in terms of expected goals (xG) they would have deserved 33.21 goals. Watford, on the other hand, have netted the ball 34 times so far this season and their xG is 33.45. Defensively Watford do have an edge but the difference between teams is still much smaller than the number of goals scored would suggest! Reading have allowed 42 goals but their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is 36.34. Watford, on the other hand, have allowed 31 goals so far and their xGA is 32.89

As my long-term fans probably are aware of, I will not let the league table fool me! Reading currently occupy the 16th place with 37 points to their account.. They have clearly improved from the disappointing season 2021-2022. However, in my power ratings I have the hosts in the 11th place in my power rating that reflects the teams' pure class. Their number of expected points (xPTS) is 40.12. I would say that 3-4 their regular starters, especially two defenders, still have room for clear improvement.. In their most recent match they faced Stoke away from home as clear underdogs according to the bookmakers. Stoke were the better team but the 4-0 is still very misleading. It seems the betting market is giving this match too much emphasis. Reading had their chances in this game and recorded seven scoring attempts. The hosts did record more though – 16 to be precise. Furthermore, Reading had over 60% ball possession and recorded many more total passes, completed passes (461-249) and attacks – 142-103.

Before the Stoke game the hosts were far from their best but took a point at home against QPR, a mediocre team, through a 2-2 draw. I also want to mention that QPR played better than normally in this clash. Watford, on the other hand, were relegated from the Premier League after an abysmal last season and have not met the expectations so far this season. I have, as a result, lowered their power rating from my in-depth preseason analysis. I believe that they have potential for improvement but I do not quite trust their coach.. Their level of football has declined lately, not improved! According to my sources their team spirit is far from optimal.. In their most recent match they got beaten away from home by Middlesbrough. 2-0 was the final score and the hosts fully deserved the win. Before this they were disappointing at home against Rotherham, currently in 20th place. Watford lacked offensive creativity and it was a 1-1 draw in the end.. The bookies see Watford as solid favorites but with the substantial home advantage I see this game as a 50/50% battle without a favorite. The smart choice is to bet on the hosts not to lose.

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

北京时间周六晚，雷丁主场迎战沃特福德，进行英冠第30轮比赛。然而，事实上，到目前为止，东道主踢了28场比赛，沃特福德踢了29场比赛。这是英国足球的第二高水平，当然也是世界上最好的二级联赛。从纯粹的级别来看，沃特福德是更好的球队，但差距并不大。在我看来，就进攻质量而言，两支球队几乎不相上下。事实上，雷丁已经进了31个球，但就预期进球数(xG)而言，他们应该得到33.21个进球。另一方面，沃特福德本赛季到目前为止已经有34次进球，他们的xG是33.45。在防守端，沃特福德确实有优势，但球队之间的差距仍然比进球数要小得多!雷丁已经失球42个，但是他们的预期失球数(xGA)是36.34。另一方面，沃特福德到目前为止已经失球31个，他们的xGA是32.89

我的长期粉丝可能都知道，我不会让排行榜愚弄我!雷丁目前以37分排名第16位。相比令人失望的2021-2022赛季，他们有了明显的进步。然而，在我的实力评分中，东道主在我的实力评分中排名第11位，这反映了球队的纯粹等级。他们的期望点数(xPTS)是40.12。我想说，他们的3-4名常规首发球员，尤其是两名后卫，仍然有明显的提升空间。在最近的一场比赛中，根据博彩公司的说法，他们在客场面对斯托克城时明显处于劣势。斯托克城是更好的球队，但4-0仍然非常误导。博彩市场似乎过于强调这场比赛了。雷丁队在这场比赛中获得了机会，并取得了7次得分。不过东道主的记录确实更多——准确地说是16个。此外，雷丁拥有超过60%的控球率，并且记录了更多的总传球，完成传球(461-249)和攻击(142-103)。

在与斯托克城的比赛之前，东道主的状态远未达到最佳水平，但在主场2-2逼平了一支平庸的QPR队，拿到了一分。我还想提一下QPR队在这场比赛中表现得比平时更好。另一方面，沃特福德在上赛季表现糟糕后从英超降级，本赛季到目前为止也没有达到人们的期望。因此，在我的季前赛深度分析中，我降低了他们的实力评级。我相信他们有进步的潜力，但我不太相信他们的教练。他们的足球水平最近下降了，没有提高!根据我的消息来源，他们的团队精神远非最佳。在最近的一场比赛中，他们在客场被米德尔斯堡击败，最终比分是2:0，东道主完全配得上这场胜利。在此之前，他们在主场对阵目前排名第20的罗瑟勒姆时表现令人失望。沃特福德缺乏进攻创造力，最终以1-1战平。博彩公司认为沃特福德是最受欢迎的球队，但由于主场优势明显，我认为这场比赛是50/50的比赛，没有最受欢迎的球队。聪明的选择是押注东道主不会输。