Eupen VS Genk

Eupen welcome Genk for this Belgian Jupiler Pro League round 22 clash at Kehrwegstadion early Thursday evening Beijing time. This league is of pretty good level by European standards but still clearly behind the top-4 four leagues. There is no doubt about the fact that Genk are the better team here. They have an edge over Eupen in all areas of the game. However, I see the difference in class between the teams as much smaller than the betting market seems to believe. I want to also mention that the long-term data from various football leagues proves that betting on the clear favorite at home at a -1.5 goals handicap is usually not a good idea at all. Indeed, the +1.5 goals handicap on Eupen is a very lucrative option here for my fans and me. All we need to make a profit is for the hosts not to lose by more than one goal's margin. The biggest, usually pretty smart bookmakers that accept the biggest bets offer odds of around 1.60 for Genk to take all three points here. However, according to my sophisticated in-depth analysis their chance of winning is just 54%.

Genk currently top the standings with 58 points. They have netted the ball 56 times and have allowed 19 goals. In terms of expected points (xPTS) they would have deserved just 53.67 points! They have, however, unarguably been much better than the bookmakers, most football analysts, their fans and I would have expected before the season kicked off. However, they have, as a result of the good performances – especially results-wise - become clearly too ”hot” on the betting market! 6-7 of their regular starters have performed above their normal level this season and this is unlikely to go on for the rest of the season.. We must keep in mind that last season they finished in 8th place after the regular season with 51 points and had a score difference of 66:47. Not that much has, in reality, changed in terms of their pure class for the season of 2022-2023. Their recent results are good but their true level on the pitch has not been as good as early season. Yes, they have won three games in a row but the opposition has been pretty weak.. In their most recent match they beat Seraing 4-0 and did deserve the win. However, let's not forget that Seraing are a bad team, currently in last place in Jupiler Pro League and Genk were priced only around 1.20 to win on the betting market. The final score is misleading as Genk only had 55% ball possession and the visitors had their chances too recording six scoring attempts – Genk's number was 12 though. The number of dangerous attacks was also surprisingly balanced – 38-33. Before this they were extremely lucky to defeat Westerlo 3-2 away from home as their performance, especially defensively was far from convincing despite being solid favorites according to the bookies. Even so, the host had 60% ball possession and recorded many more goal attempts (14-8), goal attempts, total passes, completed passes, attacks and especially dangerous attacks 72-22!

Furthermore, on the 14th of January they Genk a lowly team Waregem 1-0 in a match that was much more balanced than the odds - around 1.40 -  would reflect. On the 11th of January they failed to score at all and got heavily beaten by Antwerp in a Belgian Cup match at home. 0-3 was the final score! Eupen currently occupy the 15th place and have 20 points in the pocket. In their most recent game they lost to a quite strong team, St. Liege 1-3 away from home as very clear underdogs but were not without chances and the final score flatters the hotst. Before this they were a positive surprise to me and fought well against a better team than the betting market seems to think, Leuven, away from home taking a point through a 1-1 draw. Eupen's results at home this season have not been overly convincing but I will not let this fool me!  Their loud and enthusiastic fans are still a gigantic boost for them. I expect Eupen to be pretty defensive here against a strong opponent and are unlikely to take big offensive risks even if they were to be trailing by one goal's margin..