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芬兰职业体育分析师,已从业20年
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A lucrative game to bet on! 德甲沙尔克04VS莱红牛

2023-01-24

比赛分析

德甲

已完赛

星期三2023-01-25 01:30

解读理由

Schalke VS Leipzig

Schalke welcome Leipzig for this German Bundesliga round 16 clash at Volkswage at Veltins Arena in Gelsenkirchen. This is the third-best league on the planet but us football fans and bettors cannot expect a high-level match by Bundesliga standards. There is no doubt about the fact that the visitors are the better team here by pure class. They do have an edge in all areas of the game. They deserve to be the favorites here but their odds are way too low.The biggest, often pretty sharp bookmakers with the largest betting limits see the visitors as big favorites offering them odds of around 1.55 to take all three points. I see them having a 53% chance to win. The match will be played on the 24th of this month so odds may, of course, fluctuate quite a lot before the kickoff.. Indeed, I expect the odds on the hosts to go down before the match starts as smart money will probably pile up on them. Especially in handicap betting, Schalke are a lucrative option! I will recommend a bet on them with the +1.5 goals handicap. The chance of winning is over 70%. My fans and I will win as long as the hosts do not lose by more than one goal's difference! Long-term data proves that betting the favorite with the -1.5 goals handicap is on average a very bad idea.. Professional football bettors should know this.. Moreover, Schalke have not lost any of their most recent six games by more than one goal's margin! They have, in fact, taken three draws in these six matches.

Schalke returned to this level for this season and have, as expected,struggled quite a bit. The pace is much faster than in the second tier.. They are currently the rock-bottom team in the standings. They have grabbed just nine points so far. However, as my long-term fans know. I will not let the stanings fool me! Schalke have been massively unlucky in terms of expected points (xPTS)! They would have deserved 17-18 points! Indeed, they are definitely not the worst team in this league. They are in the 15th place in my power rating that reflects the teams' pure class! They still have a genuine chance to avoid relegation. There are 18 teams in the Bundesliga and three team will be relagated to Bundesliga 2 for next season. Schalke have allowed 32 goals and I have to admit that their defense has been shaky. The structure is pretty okay but they make too many individual mistakes.. However, they have improved in this area of the game as the season has progressed. Moreover, their number of expected goals (xGA) is just 23.43. They have netted the ball 13 times but their number of expected goals is 19.11. I believe they will improve in this area of the game as well.. However, in this match they will surely be pretty defensive against a strong opponent, currently in third place in the league table. I see this match as more low-scoring than the betting market does which suits the +1.5 goals handicap option well.. Leipzig do have some defensive weaknesses – they are sometimes a bit arrogant against the lowly teams - and have allowed 21 goals - as well, so Schalke scoring at least once is still probable.. Schalke has very loud fans which are a gigantic boost for them!

本译文使用有道机器翻译,仅供参考:

沙尔克VS莱比锡

沙尔克欢迎莱比锡参加在盖尔森基兴维尔廷斯球场举行的德甲第16轮比赛。这是世界上第三好的联赛,但美国球迷和赌客们不能期待一场高水平的比赛以德甲的标准。毫无疑问,客队从水平上来说是更好的球队。他们在比赛的各个领域都有优势。他们应该是最受欢迎的,但他们的赔率太低了。最大的、通常相当精明的博彩公司拥有最大的投注限额,他们认为访问者是最大的热门,为他们提供1.55左右的赔率,以获得全部三分。我认为他们有53%的机会获胜。比赛将在本月24日进行,所以在开球前赔率当然会有很大波动。事实上,我预计东道主的赔率在比赛开始前会下降,因为聪明的钱可能会堆积在他们身上。特别是在残障投注,沙尔克是一个有利可图的选择!我将推荐他们与+1.5个进球障碍打赌。中奖几率超过70%只要东道主不输超过一个球,我和我的球迷就会赢!长期数据证明,以-1.5个进球的障碍下注最受欢迎的球队平均来说是一个非常糟糕的主意。职业足球投注者应该知道这一点。此外,沙尔克在最近的六场比赛中没有一场以超过一球的差距输球!事实上,他们在这六场比赛中取得了三场平局。

沙尔克本赛季回到了这一水平,正如预期的那样,他们挣扎了很多。节奏比第二梯队快得多。他们是目前排名垫底的球队。到目前为止,他们只获得了9分。然而,我的长期粉丝都知道。我才不会被这些排名骗了!沙尔克在期望积分(xPTS)方面非常不幸!他们应该得到17-18分!事实上,他们绝对不是联盟中最差的球队。在我的实力评分中,他们排在第15位,这反映了球队的纯粹水平!他们仍然有真正的机会保级。德甲共有18支球队,下赛季将有3支球队被降级到德甲2级。沙尔克已经丢了32个球,我不得不承认他们的防守很不稳定。结构还不错,但是他们犯了太多个人错误。然而,随着赛季的发展,他们在这方面已经有所进步。此外,他们的预期进球数(xGA)只有23.43个。他们已经进了13次球,但他们的预期进球数是19.11个。我相信他们在这方面也会有所提高。然而,在这场比赛中,面对目前排名第三的强大对手,他们肯定会非常防守。我认为这场比赛比博彩市场更低的得分,适合+1.5个进球的障碍选项。莱比锡确实有一些防守上的弱点——他们有时对低能球队有点傲慢——而且已经失球21个,所以沙尔克至少进一次球还是有可能的。沙尔克有非常吵闹的球迷,这对他们来说是一个巨大的推动!


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