VfL Wolfsburg VS SC Freiburg

Wolfsburg welcome Freiburg for this German Bundesliga round 16 clash at Volkswagen Arena. This is the third-best league on the planet and us football fans and bettors have every reason to expect a high-level match. Freiburg have defended extremely well this season and have allowed just 17 goals so far in this league. Only Bayern Munich, who currently top the standings, have conceded less goals – 13. Freiburg's defense has excellent structure and the defenders make very few mistakes. The defenders also actively take part in defending. However, away from home – especially against good teams they usually play pretty defensive, sometimes even cautious football. The hosts defense has been pretty solid as well - they have allowed 20 goals in Bundesliga. Indeed, I see this match as more low-scoring than the betting market. The probability of under 2.5 goals being scored is 54%. My fans' and my goal is to make a solid long-term profit and I think the odds are set wrong here. The biggest bookmakers with the largest stake limits see the hosts as favorites offering them odds of around 2.45-2. 50 to take all three points. The match will be played on the 21st of this month so odds may, of course, fluctuate quite a lot before the kickoff. Indeed, I expect the odds on the hosts to go up before the match starts as smart money will probably pile up on Freiburg. They should be narrow favorites as by pure class they are clearly better! With the recommended +0.5 goals handicap option on Freiburg my fans and I have an excellent good chance of winning! A draw would be enough. The visitors have an edge in all areas of the game. They were strong already last season, surprising probably everybody in very positive way.  Even so, the bookies just keep underestimating them..

This season Freiburg have been even better than in the 2021-2022 season and currently occupy the 2nd place in the standings with an excellent number of points. However, I would be a bit surprised if they were to finish in top-2 at the end of the season.. They have, after all, been a little lucky in terms of expected points (xPTS) , taking 2.45 more points than they would have deserved. The host however, have taken 23 points so far but this is 6.98 more points than they would have deserved in terms of xPTS. They have scored 25 goals so far but their number of expected goals (xG) is just 19.56. Moreover, their expected number of goals allowed (xGA) is 24.67. Indeed, the visitors have an edge in all areas of the game! Both teams are in good form but the visitors have been even better recently and - most importantly - looked better on the pitch. They have not lost any of their latets six games – winning four of them. The hosts, on the other hand, have won two of their latest five matches – losing one of them. This loss happened on the 14th of this month against Augsburg. 0-1 was the final score. In the Bundesliga they achieved good results before the break but also had some luck on their side. For example on the 12th of November they beat Hoffenheim 2-1 away from home but the hosts were the better team recording many more scoring attempts – 22-6. They also had 58% ball possession and created more shots on goals as well as xG 1.56- 0.89.

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沃尔夫斯堡VS弗赖堡

沃尔夫斯堡欢迎弗赖堡参加在大众球场举行的德甲第16轮比赛。这是地球上第三好的联赛，我们球迷和赌徒有充分的理由期待一场高水平的比赛。弗赖堡本赛季防守非常好，到目前为止在联赛中只丢了17个球。只有目前排名第一的拜仁慕尼黑(Bayern Munich)丢了13个球。弗赖堡的防守结构很好，防守者很少出错。防守队员也积极参加防守。然而，在客场，尤其是对阵强队时，他们通常踢得很防守，有时甚至很谨慎。东道主的防守也相当稳固——他们在德甲联赛中丢了20个球。事实上，我认为这场比赛比博彩市场的得分更低。进2.5球以下的概率为54%。我的粉丝和我的目标是获得稳定的长期利润，我认为这种可能性是错误的。最大的博彩公司有最大的赌注限制，他们认为东道主是最受欢迎的，提供约2.45-2的赔率。50分拿下三分。这场比赛将在本月21日进行，所以在开球前，赔率当然会有很大波动。事实上，我预计在比赛开始前东道主的赔率会上升，因为聪明的钱可能会堆积在弗赖堡身上。他们应该是最受欢迎的，因为从纯粹的职业来看，他们显然更好!在弗莱堡，我的球迷和我都有绝佳的获胜机会!一场平局就足够了。客队在比赛的各个方面都有优势。他们上赛季已经很强大了，可能以非常积极的方式让每个人都感到惊讶。即便如此，博彩公司还是低估了他们。

本赛季弗赖堡的表现甚至比2021-2022赛季还要好，目前以优异的积分排名积分榜第二。然而，如果他们在赛季结束时排在前2，我会有点惊讶。毕竟，他们在预期得分(xPTS)方面有点幸运，比他们应得的多拿了2.45分。然而，东道主到目前为止已经获得了23分，但这比他们应得的xPTS多了6.98分。到目前为止，他们已经进了25个球，但他们的预期进球数(xG)只有19.56个。此外，他们的期望允许进球数(xGA)为24.67。事实上，客队在比赛的各个方面都有优势!两支球队的状态都很好，但客队最近表现更好，最重要的是，他们在场上的表现更好。他们六场比赛都没输过，赢了四场。另一方面，东道主在最近的五场比赛中赢了两场，输了一场。这场失利发生在本月14日对阵奥格斯堡的比赛中，最终比分是0-1。在德甲联赛中，他们在中场休息前取得了不错的成绩，但他们也有一些运气。例如，11月12日，他们在客场2-1击败了霍芬海姆，但东道主表现更好，进球次数更多——22-6。他们拥有58%的控球率，创造了更多的射门机会，xG为1.56- 0.89。