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芬兰职业体育分析师,已从业20年
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7 Days: 17/22 picks WON! $$$ 英足总杯狼队VS利物浦

2023-01-18

比赛分析

英足总杯

已完赛

星期三2023-01-18 03:45

解读理由

Wolves VS Liverpool

Wolves host Liverpool in this English FA Cup battle at Molineux Stadium in Wolverhampton early Wednesday morning Beijing time. This competition is not surely not the main priority for either team this season. However, Wolves will almost certainly never have a genuine chance of winning the Premier League not to mention the Champions League. Winning the FA Cup would also, of course, be a surprise but is definitely possible as the big teams usually - sometimes even heavily - rotate the squad in this competition! Indeed, I do expect the hosts to be the more motivated team – every team in England fights hard in front of home fans – especially against a big time like Liverpool! Liverpool have been a gigantic disappointment this season! It is hard to even imagine that they were, totally deservedly, clear favorites in the UEFA Champions League final against Real Madrid.. They lost 0-1 though but would have deserved a win in terms of expected goals (xG). Yes, they lost Sadio Mane who left the team to play for the rulers of Germany, Bayern Munchen, for this season. However, they have also bought new players and no one, including myself, can fully understand why their level has dropped so much this season.. Klopp is still a good manager and every team have injuries during the long season.. Liverpool currently occupy the 9th (!) place in the Premier League with just 28 points to their account! Even much smaller teams, Fulham and Brentford, have grabbed more points. Furthermore, Liverpool have been only marginally unlucky in terms of expected points (xPTS). They would have deserved 28.87 points. In terms of expected goals (xG) they would have deserved 38.12 goals but the actual number of goals scored is 34. However, their defense has been even much more leaky than the number of goals allowed would suggest – number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is 31.02.

In their most recent match Liverpool lost to Brighton 0-3 away from home after a very bad performance. They were missing many players in this match though but the same is true in this game. Brighton recorded 2.62 in xG, poor Liverpool's xG number was just 1.24. They have not won any of their latest three games. They locked horns with Wolves 10 days ago and were not clearly the better team on the pitch despite being priced around 1.20 on the betting market to win during the 90 minutes of play. It was a 2-2 draw. Before this game they lost to Brentford 1-3 away from home and looked very shaky in defense! Wolves's season has also been disappointing but have improved lately and have potential to considerably climb up the standings. They have taken just 17 points so far in Premier League but their xPTS is much higher - 22.98! In their most recent match they beat West Ham 1-0 at home recording a little more than the visitors in xG. They have not lost any of their latest four games in regulation time. Six days ago Nottingham, dangerous team at home - did beat them in EFL Cup after penalties 2-1 though. Liverpool are ónly very narrow favorites here and the clever choice is to bet on the hosts not to lose in regulation time!

GOOD LUCK!

本译文使用有道机器翻译,仅供参考:

狼队VS利物浦

北京时间周三凌晨,狼队将在伍尔弗汉普顿Molineux球场迎战利物浦,这是一场英格兰足总杯之战。这场比赛并不是这两支球队本赛季的首要任务。然而,狼队几乎肯定不会有真正的机会赢得英超联赛,更不用说冠军联赛了。当然,赢得足总杯也会是一个惊喜,但这是绝对可能的,因为大球队通常-有时甚至严重-在这项比赛中轮换阵容!的确,我希望东道主是一支更有动力的球队——英格兰的每支球队在主场球迷面前都很努力——尤其是面对利物浦这样的豪门!利物浦这个赛季真是太令人失望了!很难想象,在欧冠决赛对阵皇家马德里的比赛中,他们是当之无愧的热门球队。虽然他们输了0-1,但从预期进球数(xG)来看,他们应该获得一场胜利。是的,他们失去了萨迪奥·马内,他离开了球队,在本赛季为德国的统治者拜仁慕尼黑效力。然而,他们也买了新球员,没有人,包括我自己,能完全理解为什么他们的水平在这个赛季下降了这么多。克洛普仍然是一个好教练,在漫长的赛季中,每支球队都有伤病。利物浦目前仅积28分,排在英超第9位!即使是小得多的球队,富勒姆和布伦特福德,也拿到了更多的分数。此外,利物浦在预期积分(xPTS)方面只是略微不走运。他们应该得到28.87分。在期望进球数(xG)方面,他们应该得到38.12个进球,但实际进球数是34个。然而,他们的防守甚至比允许进球数所显示的更有漏洞——允许预期进球数(xGA)是31.02。

在最近的一场比赛中,利物浦在客场0-3输给了布莱顿,表现非常糟糕。虽然他们在这场比赛中失去了很多球员,但在这场比赛中也是如此。布莱顿的xG为2.62,而可怜的利物浦的xG只有1.24。他们最近的三场比赛一场也没赢。10天前,他们与狼队发生了角力,尽管在90分钟的比赛中,博彩市场的定价约为1.20英镑,但他们在球场上并不是更好的球队。双方打成2比2平。在这场比赛之前,他们在客场1-3输给了布伦特福德,防守看起来非常不稳定!狼队本赛季的表现也令人失望,但最近有所改善,有潜力大幅攀升积分榜。到目前为止,他们在英超联赛中只拿到了17分,但他们的xPTS要高得多——22.98!在他们最近的一场比赛中,他们在主场1-0击败了西汉姆联,在xG方面比客队多一点。他们在最近的四场比赛中没有输过一场。六天前,诺丁汉,这支在主场很危险的球队,在EFL杯中点球2-1击败了他们。利物浦是ónly非常小的热门,聪明的选择是打赌东道主在规定时间内不会输!

< / p > < p >祝你好运!


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