Westerlo VS Genk

Westerlo and Genk lock horns in this Jupiler Pro League round 21 clash at Het Kuipje early Wednesday morning Beijing time. There is no doubt about the fact that Genk are the favorites here. They currently top the standings with 52 points. They have netted the ball 49 times and have allowed 17 goals. They have been much better than the betting market, most football analysts, their fans and I would have expected before the season started. However, they have, as a result of the mostly good performances, become way too hot on the betting market! 6-7 of their regular starters have played above their normal level this season and this will surely not go on for the rest of the season.. We must not forget that last season they finished in 8th place after the regular season with 51 points and a goal difference of 66:47. Not that much has, after all, changed in terms of their pure class for this season.. Both their results and true level on the pitch have been in decline lately. They have won - and lost twice – in their most recent matches. Before these four games they needed extra time to beat Anderlecht 1-0 at home in a Belgian Cup clash. In their most recent match they took a hard-fought win at home over Waregem, currently the second-last team in the league table. Yes, Genk were the better team but only by a narrow margin! The performance was indeed disappointing as they were priced below 1.40 by the bookmakers. The visitors even had close to 60% ball possession and recorded more passes, completed passes and attacks. Genk did, however, create more shots on target, scoring attempts and dangerous attacks. Their offense lacked speed, creativity and passing accuracy in this game. Before this they failed to score at all and got heavily beaten by Antwerp in a Belgian Cup match at home. 0-3 was the final score. There was, however, typically for a cup match, some squad rotation in this game. Furthermore, on the 8th of this month they were strong and beat a good team Club Brugge 3-1 at home. On the 26th they, however, they once again struggled and lost to a pretty lowly team, Kortrijk, away from home without scoring! Indeed, they have become erratic - on a good day they can beat any team in this league - even away from home - but their odds are almost always simply just too low.

Westerlo, on the other hand, were promoted to this league for this season. They have been better than – I believe – anyone would have guessed! They have scored 39 goals in this league this season but have also allowed 35 goals. Westerlo currently occupy the 7th place in the standings but I would, in all honesty, be rather surprised if they were to finish even in the top-10! I have raised their power rating that reflects the teams' pure class, as a result of their mostly rather strong performances. However, they are still only in 11th place in the ranking.. Similarly to many Genk players, several of the hosts' players have played above their normal level so far.. They have 30 points in the pocket but their number of expected points (xPTS) is a bit lower. The main rationale behind this pick is to oppose the over-rated Genk. Last Friday Westerlo lost to a pretty strong team, Leuven (9th place in the standings) 1-2 at home but this match could have easily gone either way. Westerlo had 57% ball possession and more goal attempts, attacks and dangerous attacks. Both teams created four shots on goal. Before this they were a bit lucky defeating Cercle Brugge 1-0 away from home. The hosts had 56% ball possession and recorded many more scoring chances (11-4), shots on goal (5-2), total passes, attacks and dangerous attacks – 64:32. I was not overly impressed by Westerlo's performance but they did defend in a more organized way than normally - a promising thing going into this clash. They would have to do well in this area of the game today as well against an opponent that has an edge in all areas of the game. Even so, the current odds of around 2.00 offered by the bookies on Genk are way too low and a professional football bettor's choice is to bet on the hosts not to lose (+0.5 goals handicap option). Westerlo have enthusiastic fans and offer a huge boost for the hosts. This game against a big team is a massive one for the home fans - and of course Westerlo's players! They have been strong at home in this league so far – score difference 24:14. Lastly I want to mention that Genk have had just two full days to rest and prepare for this match. This is far from optimal in professional football - a small edge for the hosts there..

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维斯特洛VS根克

北京时间周三凌晨，在Het Kuipje举行的Jupiler职业联赛第21轮比赛中，Westerlo和Genk发生了激烈的冲突。毫无疑问，Genk在这里是最受欢迎的。他们目前以52分高居榜首。他们一共破门49次，失球17个。他们比博彩市场、大多数足球分析师、他们的球迷和我在赛季开始前所预期的要好得多。然而，由于大部分良好的表现，他们在博彩市场上变得太热了!他们有6-7名常规首发球员本赛季的表现超过了正常水平，这肯定不会在本赛季余下的时间里继续下去。我们不能忘记上赛季他们在常规赛结束后以51分和66:47的净胜球排名第八。毕竟，在这一季，他们纯粹的阶级并没有太大的变化。他们的成绩和在球场上的真实水平最近都在下降。他们在最近的比赛中赢了两场，输了两场。在这四场比赛之前，他们需要加时赛才能在比利时杯主场1-0击败安德莱赫特。在最近的一场比赛中，他们在主场艰难战胜了Waregem，后者目前在积分榜上排名倒数第二。是的，根克是更好的球队，但只是以很小的差距!这一表现确实令人失望，因为博彩公司的定价低于1.40英镑。客队甚至有接近60%的控球率，记录了更多的传球，完成传球和进攻。然而，根克确实创造了更多的射正、得分尝试和危险的进攻。在这场比赛中，他们的进攻缺乏速度、创造力和传球准确性。在此之前，他们一球未进，在比利时杯的主场比赛中被安特卫普惨败。最终比分是0比3。然而，在这场比赛中，有一些典型的杯赛阵容轮换。此外，在本月8日，他们表现强劲，在主场3-1击败了一支强队布鲁日俱乐部。然而，在26日，他们又一次陷入困境，在客场不敌实力相当弱的科尔特里克，而且没有进球!事实上，他们已经变得飘忽不定——运气好的时候，他们可以击败联赛中的任何一支球队——甚至在客场——但他们的胜率几乎总是太低了。

另一方面，韦斯特洛在本赛季被提升到这个联赛。我相信，他们比任何人想象的都要好!他们本赛季在联赛中打进39球，但也失球35个。维斯特洛目前排名第七，但说实话，如果他们能进入前十，我会感到相当惊讶!我提高了他们的实力等级，这反映了球队的纯粹等级，因为他们的表现大多相当强劲。然而，他们仍然只排在第11位。和许多Genk球员一样，到目前为止，东道主的一些球员的表现超过了他们的正常水平。他们在口袋里有30分，但他们的期望点数(xPTS)略低。这一选择背后的主要理由是反对被高估的根克。上周五，韦斯特洛在主场1-2输给了一支相当强大的球队，鲁汶(排名第9)，但这场比赛本来可以很容易地走向任何一方。维斯特洛有57%的控球率，更多的进球尝试、攻击和危险攻击。两队都创造了四次射门机会。在此之前，他们有点幸运地在客场1-0击败了布鲁日。东道主拥有56%的控球率，并记录了更多的得分机会(11-4)，射门(5-2)，总传球，进攻和危险攻击- 64:32。韦斯特洛的表现并没有给我留下深刻的印象，但他们的防守确实比平时更有组织——这是这场比赛中很有希望的事情。他们必须在今天的比赛中在这个领域做得很好，面对一个在所有领域都有优势的对手。即便如此，目前博彩公司对Genk提供的约2.00赔率还是太低了，职业足球投注者的选择是押注东道主不会输(+0.5个进球的不利选项)。维斯特洛有热情的粉丝，为东道主提供了巨大的助力。这场对阵强队的比赛对主场球迷来说意义重大，当然还有维斯特洛的球员!到目前为止，他们在本联赛的主场表现强劲，比分相差24:14。最后我想说的是，根克只有整整两天的时间来休息和准备这场比赛。这在职业足球中远远不是最理想的——东道主在那里的优势很小。