Napoli Juventus

Napoli and Juventus go head to head in this Serie A clash at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona early Saturday morning Beijing time. This is definitely the best match entertainment-wise today – betting-wise the bookmakers have made (even) bigger mistakes with their odds in other matches I have previewed..  However, this match is definitely a great match to bet on as well! Napoli currently top the standings with 44 points in the bank and a stunningly good goal difference of 39:13! Napoli have massive offensive power and Juventus's attack is not bad either when they are able to field their best lineup.. However, today their situation is grim and will probably try to shut down Napoli's offense with careful defending – aiming for a draw - or perhaps a lucky win if Napoli make silly mistakes or if Juventus get a penalty.. Indeed, Juve's legendary coach Allegri has to deal with many absences once again here..  The super-dangerous and important Serbian striker Dusan Vlahovic (groin), super.skilled but erratic French "artist" Paul Pogba (knee),  experienced Leonardo Bonucci (tendon) as well as Juan Cuadrado (knee) are all out. Moreover, Mattia De Sciglio has a nasty thigh injury. Kaio Jorge is out due to a knee injury.. A massive list of absentees - too much to handle without the level clearly dropping! Natural full-backs Danilo and Alex Sandro were used as ”makeshift center-backs” against Udinese with Bremer and Bonucci out and Federico Gatti staying on the bench. Indeed, Juventus's situation is far from optimal  -  especially against the best team in Serie A, a league with one of the highest home advantage on average in the long-term.. At home Napoli have been amazingly strong winning 7/8 home games - and playing one draw - with a score difference of 21:6! Their fans offer a gigantic boost for the team and the atmosphere at the stadium will be amazing today I would guess!

"Superb" is all I can say about Napoli' season so far as a whole! The loss last week in Milan against Inter (0-1) does not change this fact. Napoli had 63% ball possession and more scoring attempts, shots on goal, total passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks. Inter did record a little more in expected goals (xG) though – 1.34 – 1.23. Napoli are indeed having a wildly strong season having won 14/17 of the Serie A games! Moreover, the loss to Inter, a strong team, currently in 4th place, is the only defeat in this league so far this season!  In the UEFA Champions League they were very impressive too, winning the group - before  very dangerous teams Liverpool and Dutch Ajax. Napoli took  five wins in six games and had an excellent score difference of 20:6! They crushed Liverpool 4-1 in Naples and humiliated Ajax 6-1 in Amsterdam! Even so, the biggest and well-known – usually relatively smart bookmakers with the biggest betting limits of - offer odds of around 2.00 on the hosts to win.. In my books they have a 57% chance – of course heavily increased by Juventus's absences! Weirdly, the bookmakers stubbornly still fail to recognize just how good Napoli are..

Napoli totally dominated Sampdoria in their most recent game, away from home against Sampdoria and even missed a penalty in the 5th minute.. Napoli recorded whopping 3.65 in xG – Sampdoria managed just 0.41. The hosts' T. Rincon was sent off in the 39th minute but Napoli were leading 1-0 at this point and controlled the events on the pitch! Juventus, too, have done well lately and have not lost for a long time but have faced mainly lowly opponents like Udinese and Cremonse.. Juventus beat both 1-0 without impressing me too much.. Against Cremonese, the rock-bottom team with seven points and a goal difference of 11:29, Milik scored the goal in the 91th minute after a surprisingly balanced battle.. Furthermore, Juventus have had some luck in quite a few games this season.. Their number of expected points (xPTS) is just 28.03! Their defense has been somewhat solid but the number of goals conceded – seven - is still extremely misleading as their number of goals allowed is 19.33. To sum up, Napoli have an edge in all areas of the game and the smart choice is to bet on them to win. Even a clear win would not be a big surprise here!