Metz vs Quevilly

Metz host Quevilly Rouen for this French Ligue 2 round 19 clash at Stade Saint-Symphorien early Saturday morning Beijing time. The biggest, mostly rather smart bookmakers with the largest betting limits seem to make quite a few mistakes with their odds on Ligue 2 games and this match is no exception! Odds of around 1.90 are widely available on Metz to send the visitors home empty-handed. That is definitely too much and I would expect the odds to drop a bit unless new information on absentees appears before the kickoff. In my books Metz have a 59% chance to win this clash. They have an edge in all areas of the game. The biggest difference is in offensive quality. Indeed, the hosts have netted the ball 29 times so far in this league. This is clearly the highest number in Ligue 2! Quavilly are not bad at scoring either having netted the ball 22 times. However, their number of expected goals (xG) is just 19.21. I expect a more high-scoring match than the betting market does and the probability of over 2.5 total goals to be scored is 50%. Metz currently occupy the 4th place in the standings with 28 points to their account but I rate them as the 3th-best team in this league in my power rating that illustrates the teams pure class. They have a genuine chance of being promoted back to Ligue 1 where they finished in 19th place last season with 31 points after a mostly disappointing campaign. Quevilly, on the other hand, finished in 18th place in Ligue 2 with an abysmal score difference of 33:50 and 40 just points.. They have been better this season and are in the 9th place in the league table but are in 14th place in my power rating. They have taken 25 points but their number of expected points (xPTS) is just 21.45. Indeed, the difference in class between the teams is clear!

Furthermore, I want to mention that according to a very well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com, the hosts' players have a total market value of 29.45 million euros  -a high number in this league!  In my opinion this is still too low though! I would set the number at around 36-37 million.. Quevilly, on the other hand, are a somewhat lowly team for this level without any real stars or potential for any further improvement. I am quite sure they will drop down in the standings by the end of the season as many players have played above their normal level so far.. Their squad has a total market value of 11.78 million. At least three players are over-valued and the fair value would be 9-9.5 million. The total market value can, of course, sometimes be misleading but is still a quite good indicator of a team's level in real action on the pitch.. The football (player) market is, after all, a global one. The bookmakers, football journalists/analysts and especially professional football bettors pay increasingly more attention to teams' total market values nowadays.. However, if two players are equally good and one of them is 25 years old and the other one is 35, the younger one is, of course, much more valuable.. For example, the fresh World Champion Leo Messi or Barcelona's Polish super star Lewandowski do not have even close to the biggest current market value despite being top-8 players on the planet! Furthermore, for example super-promising Jude Bellingham, just 19 years old, has a much higher market value than the iconic Messi or Lewa at the moment.. 

Both teams are in pretty good form results-wise losing just one of their latest five matches but Metz have looked much better on the pitch. Three days ago they crushed Nimes, a better team than the standings suggest, 4-1 away from home. A fine performance and a proof of how strong their offense is. Their strikers are very skilled individually for this level and the midfielders are active in attacking as well! Before this they fought well in a Coupe de France match away from home against Lyon, a big team from Ligue 1. They lost 1-2 though but were also massive underdogs, priced around 7.50 to win on the betting market! I liked the way they fought and at least tried to attack at times as well. The visitors played a 1-1 draw at home on the 10th of this month against Bastia as favorites and did not impress me. Indeed, Bastia were the slightly better team though recording more scoring attempts, shots on goal, attacks and dangerous attacks..

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梅斯vs奎维利

北京时间周六凌晨，法甲联赛第19轮，梅斯主场迎战奎维尔·鲁昂。最大的，大部分相当聪明的博彩公司与最大的投注限制似乎犯了相当多的错误，他们的法甲比赛赔率，这场比赛也不例外!在梅斯，让游客空手而归的赔率在1.90左右。这绝对是太多了，我希望赔率会下降一点，除非在开球前出现新的缺席球员信息。在我看来，梅斯有59%的机会赢得这场比赛。他们在比赛的各个方面都有优势。最大的不同在于进攻质量。事实上，到目前为止，东道主已经在联赛中进球29次。这显然是法甲的最高数字!Quavilly在得分方面也不差，已经进了22次网。然而，他们的预期进球数(xG)只有19.21个。我期待一场比分比博彩市场更高的比赛，进球总数超过2.5个的概率是50%。梅斯目前以28分排名第四，但在我的实力评分中，他们在联赛中排名第三，这说明了这支球队的纯粹水平。他们有真正的机会升回法甲，上赛季他们在一个非常令人失望的赛季后以31分排名第19位。另一方面，奎维尔在法甲以33:50和40分的糟糕比分差排在第18位。他们本赛季表现更好，在积分榜上排名第9，但在我的实力评分中排名第14。他们已经获得了25分，但他们的期望分数(xPTS)只有21.45分。事实上，两队之间的阶级差异是显而易见的!

此外，我想提到的是，根据一家非常著名和受人尊敬的德国网站Transfermarkt.com的数据，东道主球员的总市值为2945万欧元;-在这个联盟里是很高的数字!在我看来，这还是太低了!我认为这个数字在3600万到3700万之间。另一方面，Quevilly在这个级别上是一个有点低的球队，没有真正的明星，也没有任何进一步提高的潜力。我很肯定他们在赛季末的排名会下降，因为到目前为止很多球员的表现都超过了他们的正常水平。他们的总市值为1178万美元。至少有三名球员被高估，公允价值在900万到950万之间。当然，总市值有时会被误导，但仍然是一个相当好的指标，一个球队在球场上的实际行动水平。毕竟，足球(球员)市场是全球性的。如今，博彩公司、足球记者/分析师，尤其是职业足球投注者越来越关注球队的总市场价值。然而，如果两个球员同样优秀，其中一个25岁，另一个35岁，那么年轻的球员当然更有价值。例如，新的世界冠军里奥·梅西或巴塞罗那的波兰超级球星莱万多夫斯基，尽管是地球上排名前8的球员，但他们甚至没有接近最大的当前市场价值!此外，例如超级有前途的裘德·贝灵汉，年仅19岁，目前的市场价值比偶像梅西或莱瓦要高得多。

两支球队的状态都很好，在最近的五场比赛中只输了一场，但梅斯在球场上看起来要好得多。三天前，他们在客场4-1击败了尼姆斯，这支球队比积分榜上的球队要好。一场精彩的表演，证明了他们的进攻是多么强大。他们的前锋在这个级别上非常熟练，中场球员在进攻中也很活跃!在此之前，他们在法国杯客场对阵法甲强队里昂的比赛中表现出色。虽然他们以1-2的比分输掉了比赛，但他们也处于巨大的劣势，在博彩市场上的定价约为7.50英镑!我喜欢他们战斗的方式，至少有时也会尝试进攻。客队在本月10号主场1-1战平了巴斯蒂亚，这并没有给我留下深刻的印象。事实上，巴斯蒂亚是一支稍微好一点的球队，尽管记录了更多的进球尝试，射门，进攻和危险的进攻。