Sparta Rotterdam VS PSV Eindhoven

Sparta Rotterdam and PSV lock horns in this KNVB Cup 1/16-finals battle at Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel early Wednesday morning Beijing time. The biggest, often relatively smart bookmakers with the biggest stake limits see the visitors as very clear favorites and offer odds of around 1.65 for them to win during the 90 minutes of play. Yes, PSV are clearly the better team by pure class and bigger by financial resources but I see the match as much more balanced than the bookies! The teams met in Eindhoven in an Eredivisie game just three days ago and it was a goalless draw in Eindhoven. The hosts were massive favorites in this match, priced around 1.20 to take all three points on the betting market. These odds were clearly too low and once again PSV are over-valued today! I see them having a 53% chance of winning during the regulation time. However, the recommended pick is +1.5 goals handicap option on Sparta Rotterdam. They have a 74% chance of avoiding losing by more than one goal's margin. PSV had 61% ball possession and were the better team on the pitch overall. However, both teams recorded four shots on goal and Sparta did have their chances in this clash. PSV created 17 scoring attempts – the visitors' number was also pretty good - 12.

Sparta Rotterdam are having a terrific season and have massively improved from last season. They currently occupy the 6th place in the standings. They have grabbed 25 points and have a very good score difference of 25:16. The bookies clearly fail to realize how strong they are! According to my sources they have an awesome team spirit. The home advantage here is massive as the Sparta's fans are very enthusiastic and loud. They have won six of the the latest seven games at Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel! Especially their defense has been very well-structured and solid – they have allowed just 16 goals in Eredivisie so far this season! PSV have conceded 20 goals! The visitors do have much more firepower though - they have netted the ball 42 times in Eredivisie but their number of expected goals (xG) is just 39.21. They are in 3rd place with 31 points to their account. They have however, not been at their best lately winning just two of their latest five games in this league. Both teams played well in friendlies during the World Cup break. Particularly away from home PSV's defense has not convinced me this season – their defenders make too many silly mistakes and the midfielders should be less lazy and more active in defending if they want to improve from the current level. On the road they have allowed 13 goals in seven Eredivisie clashes.. Both coaches are expected to do some squad rotation here but I expect the smaller team with much less success in the past to be slightly more motivated in this cup game. Especially for the top teams this competition is not the main priority this season.