Aris VS Asteras

Aris welcome Asteras for this Greek Super League round 17 clash at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium in Thessaloniki. The situation going into this game is very clear: The hosts deserve to be clear favorites. Even so, the odds of around 1.50 offered on them to take all three points by the biggest, usually quite sharp bookmakers are definitely too low! I see them having a 56% chance to win. However, I will recommend a bet with the +1.5 goals handicap with a 73% chance of making a profit. The hosts do have an edge in all areas of the game but do not have massissive offensive power which makes the +1.5 handicap lucrative. Indeed, they have not scored more than one goal in any of their latest three matches. They did beat a pretty lowly team Lamia and a mediocre club Giannina scoring several goals in November though. However, these teams' defense is massively weaker than that of Asteras. Indeed, I see this match as more low-scoring than the betting market estimates. The probability of under 2.5 total goals to be scored is 65%. I expect the visitors to be pretty defensive – even cautious against a stronger opponent boosted by their fans. Asteras will probably heavily rely on counter attacks to score. This is something they are pretty good at – sometimes even against the big teams.. Aris are not a very big – or successful team in Greek football though..

Aris currently occupy the 6th place in the standings with 25 points to their account. They have netted the ball 22 times. Their defense has been solid as they have conceded just 13 goals. However, in terms of expected goals allowed (xGA) they have been lucky as their xGA is 15.87. Last season they finished in 4th place after the regular season but did not convince offensively even then scoring just 28 goals – less than Volos (10th). They seem to be clearly weaker this season and I have lowered their power rating that illustrates the teams' pure class from my in-depth pre-season analysis. In their most recent match they lost to PAOK 0-1 away from home. PAOK even missed a penalty and could have easily won by a bigger margin. Aris failed to record a single shot in goal – the hosts recorded five. Asteras, on the other hand, crushed Lamia at home 3-0 in their most recent game and have lost just one of their latest six matches. The defeat came against a strong team Olympiacos away from home and the hosts did deserve the win. The final score, 5-0, is still very misleading as the hosts only recorded eight shots on goal and had 60% ball possession. They have a pretty solid defense - hava allowed 19 goals so far and can climb up from the current 10th place with 17 points. Their place after the regular season 2021-2022 was 8th.

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

Aris VS Asteras

阿里斯欢迎阿斯特拉斯参加在塞萨洛尼基Kleanthis Vikelidis体育场举行的希腊超级联赛第17轮比赛。这场比赛的形势非常明确:东道主理应是最受欢迎的球队。即便如此，那些规模最大、通常相当精明的博彩公司开出的全取三分的赔率约为1.50，这绝对是太低了!我认为他们有56%的机会获胜。然而，我还是会推荐一个有+1.5个目标障碍和73%盈利机会的赌注。东道主确实在比赛的所有领域都有优势，但没有强大的进攻力量，这使得+1.5的障碍有利可图。事实上，在最近的三场比赛中，他们的进球数都没有超过一个。他们确实在11月击败了一支相当低的球队拉米亚和一个平庸的俱乐部贾尼纳，打进了几个球。然而，这些球队的防守比阿斯特拉斯要弱得多。事实上，我认为这场比赛的得分比博彩市场估计的要低。总进球数在2.5球以下的概率为65%。我预计客队会很有防守意识，甚至在面对球迷支持下的强大对手时也会很谨慎。阿斯特拉斯很可能会严重依赖反击来得分。这是他们很擅长的事情——有时甚至是对阵强队。然而，阿里斯在希腊足球中并不是一支非常强大或成功的球队。

阿里斯目前以25分位居积分榜第6位。他们已经成功得分22次。他们的防守很稳固，只丢了13个球。然而，就允许的预期目标(xGA)而言，他们是幸运的，因为他们的xGA是15.87。上赛季，他们在常规赛结束后排名第四，但在进攻端并没有令人信服，甚至只进了28球——比沃洛斯(第十)还少。他们本赛季似乎明显更弱，我从我的季前赛深度分析中降低了他们的实力评级，这说明了这支球队的纯粹等级。在最近的一场比赛中，他们在客场0-1输给了PAOK。PAOK甚至错过了一个点球，本可以以更大的优势轻松获胜。阿里斯一次射门都没有，东道主却有5次射门。另一方面，阿斯特拉斯在最近的一场比赛中主场3-0大胜拉米亚，在最近的六场比赛中只输了一场。这场失利是在客场对阵强大的奥林匹亚科斯队，东道主确实应该获得胜利。最终的比分是5-0，这仍然很容易让人误解，因为东道主只有8次射门，控球率为60%。他们有相当坚固的防守——到目前为止已经失球19个，可以从目前的第10名上升到17分。在2021-2022赛季常规赛之后，他们的排名是第8。