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外籍分析师
芬兰职业体育分析师,已从业20年
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More PROFIT from Belgium? 比甲奥斯坦德VS瑟兰联

2023-01-07

比赛分析

解读理由

Oostende VS Seraing

Seraing try to challenge Oostende in this Belgian Jupiler Pro League round 19 clash at Diaz Arena late Saturday evening Beijing time. ”Try” is, however, quite probably all they can do here as they are an extremely weak team for this level! The biggest, often rather sharp bookmakers with the largest stake limits offer odds of around 1.90-1.93 on Oostende to send the visitors home empty-handed. However, I would not be surprised to see their odds go down before the kickoff as smart money is expected to pile up on the hosts.. Oostende have a 59% chance to win this clash that is probably not going to offer great entertainment. At least a few goals are on the cards though as neither team have a solid defense and the host can easily score several goals against a weak opponent!. Seraing have lost eight of their latest nine games and in the four most recent matches they have failed to score any goals! In their most recent match, on the 23th of December they lost to Eupen, not a particularly strong team, 0-1 at home after yet another lame performance – especially offensively. They did have 51% ball possession but only recorded one shot on target! Eupen's number was five. Moreover, the visitors created 15 scoring attempts – poor Seraing managed just eight. Before this they were a little better but also lost 0-1 away from home in the hands of KV Mechelen who fully deserved the win though!

On the 4th of December month Seraing lost to a Greek team AEK Athens 0-2 in a friendly match. Before the friendly game Seraing were abysmal and lost 0-5 to Leuven, not even a very strong team - 9th in the standings. It was indeed a horrible performance even considering Sissoko's red card in the first half. The score was 2-0 for Leuven already when he was sent off. Leuven created 25 goal attempts - Seraing's number was only four. The hosts also recorded much more shots on goal – 14-1 to be precise! Oostende, on the other hand, lost to Royale Union SG 0-3 away from home in their most recent game but were also massive underdogs priced around 8.50 on the betting market to win. We must remember that the hosts are a very strong team who even topped the standings after the regular season 2021-2022. At the moment they are in 2nd place with 39 points. 

Yes, Royale Union SG deserved the win in this clash but the final score does clearly flatter them! They had 55% ball possession and did record more scoring chances and shots on goal but Oostende did have their chances and even recorded more attacks – 114. Six day earlier the teams also locked horns and Oostende challenged Royale Union SG very well – again away from home and as huge underdogs. The bookies really should respect them more! They had 51% ball possession and more shots on goal as well as scoring attempts. An extra-time would have been a justified result after 90 minutes! During the World Cup break they lost to a strong Dutch team, Feyenoord 0-2 but beat Dutch Zwolle 1-0 and played a 2-2 against a quite big French team, Lille (2-2). Before the break they won 3/5 games and have a big edge offensively over the rock-bottom Seraing who have scored just 16 goals! The visitors have just 11 points in the bank! Their offense lacks everything – speed, creativity, structure and passing accuracy! Oostende have grabbed 17 points and have room for improvement! They have allowed too many goals though – 40 – but have also been unlucky as their number of expected goals allowed (xGA)is just 34.39. Even so, Seraing probably cannot exploit the mainly structural weaknesses the hosts' defense has.. Oostende are in 15th place in the league table but I have them in the 13th place in my power rating that reflects the teams' pure class.

本译文使用有道机器翻译,仅供参考:

奥斯坦德VS西莱恩

Seraing试图在北京时间周六晚上在迪亚兹竞技场举行的比利时Jupiler职业联赛第19轮比赛中挑战奥斯坦德。然而,“尝试”很可能是他们在这里所能做的,因为他们在这个级别上是一支非常弱的球队!最大的、通常相当精明的博彩公司对奥斯坦德开出的赔率约为1.90-1.93,让游客空手而归。然而,看到他们的赔率在开球前下降,我不会感到惊讶,因为聪明的钱预计会堆积在东道主身上。Oostende有59%的机会赢得这场比赛,这可能不会提供很好的娱乐。至少有几个进球是有可能的,因为两队都没有坚固的防守,东道主可以很容易地在一个弱对手身上进几个球!西莱恩在最近的9场比赛中输掉了8场,在最近的4场比赛中他们一球未进!最近的一场比赛是在12月23日,他们在主场0-1输给了尤本,这支球队并不是一支特别强的球队,此前他们又一次表现糟糕——尤其是在进攻端。他们确实有51%的控球率,但只有一次射正!尤彭的数字是5。此外,客队创造了15次得分机会,而可怜的塞莱恩只有8次。在此之前,他们稍好一些,但也在客场0-1输给了KV梅赫伦,他完全配得上这场胜利!

12月4日,赛莱恩在一场友谊赛中0-2输给了希腊雅典AEK队。在友谊赛之前,西莱恩表现糟糕,0-5输给了鲁汶,甚至不是一支非常强大的球队——排名第9。即使考虑到西索科在上半场的红牌,这确实是一场糟糕的表现。当他被罚下时,鲁汶队的比分已经是2-0。鲁汶创造了25次进球尝试,而西莱恩只有4次。东道主也记录了更多的射门次数——准确地说是14-1 !另一方面,在最近的一场比赛中,Oostende在客场0-3输给了Royale Union SG,但在博彩市场上,他们也以8.50左右的价格获胜。我们必须记住,东道主是一支非常强大的球队,甚至在2021-2022赛季的常规赛结束后排名第一。目前他们以39分排名第二。

是的,皇家联盟SG应该在这场比赛中获胜,但最终的比分显然让他们高兴!他们有55%的控球率,记录了更多的得分机会和射门,但奥斯坦德确实有机会,甚至记录了更多的进攻——114次。6天前,两支队伍也发生了冲突,Oostende对皇家联盟SG的挑战非常出色——同样是在客场,而且是作为巨大的劣势。博彩公司真的应该更尊重他们!他们拥有51%的控球率,更多的射门次数和得分次数。90分钟后的加时赛是一个合理的结果!在世界杯期间,他们0-2输给了一支强大的荷兰队费耶诺德,但1-0击败了荷兰兹沃勒,2-2击败了一支相当强大的法国球队里尔(2-2)。在中场休息之前,他们赢了3/5场比赛,并且在进攻上有很大的优势,而垫底的西林只进了16球!客队只有11分的存款!他们的进攻缺乏一切——速度、创造力、结构和传球精度!奥斯坦德已经拿到了17分,还有提高的空间!他们失球太多——40个——但也很不幸,因为他们的预期失球数(xGA)只有34.39个。即便如此,Seraing可能无法利用东道主防守的主要结构性弱点。欧斯坦德在积分榜上排名第15位,但在我的实力评分中,他们排在第13位,这反映了球队的纯粹等级。


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