Fiorentina VS Monza

Monza challenge Fiorentina in this Italian Serie A – the 4th-best league on the planet - round 16 clash at Stadio Artemio Franchi in Florence. ”Try” is probably the only thing they can do here as Fiorentina are clear favorites to send the visitors home empty-handed. The biggest, usually somewhat sharp bookmakers with the largest stake limits offer odds of over 1.70 on the hosts and I find this price very lucrative. They currently occupy the 10th place last season with 19 points to their account. Their score difference is 18:20. In terms of expected points (xPTS) they would have deserved 21.21 points. Their number of expected goals (xG) is 21.89. Unfortunately Fiorentina are expected to be without important attackers Nicolas Gonzalez and Riccardo Sottil because of hamstring and back injuries respectively. However, it seems the betting market has over-reacted to these absentees – I will not! Sofyan Amrabat is should be fit enough to start in midfield after being excellent with Morocco at the World Cup in Qatar late last year. Monza will be without S. Sensi. Fiorentina were on fire during the World Cup break winning six of the seven friendlies. They for example beat a tough German team Dortmund 2-0 and a decent Swiss team Lugano 6-0! Right before the break they lost to AC Milan 1-2 in Milan but played okay. Milan, who are in second place in the standings, recorded 1.89 in xG – Fiorentina's number was 1.12. Furthermore, on the 9th of November they beat Salernitana 2-1 after a fine performance creating 2.67 in xG – the visitor's only managed 0.46. Fiorentina also recorded many more goal attempts (18-4) and shots on goal (7-1), total passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks – 75-17. 

Monza were promoted from Serie B for this season and have been better than expected but are still once again over-rated by the bookies. They are in 14th place in the league table with a goal difference of 16:22. Indeed, Fiorentina have an edge in all areas of the game. I rate them as the 16th-best team in power power rating that reflects the teams' pure class and would not be surprised to see them being relegated back to the 2nd tier.. The hosts had a good last season finishing in 7th place and making it to the UEFA Conference League Group stage. They took a total of 62 points and had a score difference of 59:51. The changes for this season have not been significant. They have a chance to climb up in the standings as the season progresses and the strikers listed above return. Monza are a horrible team on the road and have won just one away game in Serie A this season – and lost five. Their score difference in these seven games is 5:14. Lastly I want to mention that Fiorentina's squad has a clearly bigger market value according to Transfermarkt.com – some 214 million euros. Monza's players are valued at about 114 million which is too much. 85-87 million would be more accurate in my view!

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佛罗伦萨VS蒙扎

蒙扎在意甲联赛中挑战佛罗伦萨，这是地球上排名第四的联赛，第16轮在佛罗伦萨阿尔特米奥弗兰基球场进行了比赛。”“尝试”可能是他们在这里能做的唯一一件事，因为佛罗伦萨显然最有可能让客队空手而归。最大的、通常有些精明的博彩公司开出的赌注上限超过1.70的赔率，我发现这个价格非常有利可图。上赛季他们以19分的成绩排在第10位。他们的比分差是18:20。就预期得分(xPTS)而言，他们应该得到21.21分。他们的预期进球数(xG)为21.89。不幸的是，佛罗伦萨预计将分别因为腿筋和背部受伤而失去重要的攻击手尼古拉斯·冈萨雷斯和里卡多·索蒂尔。然而，博彩市场似乎对这些缺席者反应过度——我不会!索菲亚·阿姆拉巴特在去年年底的卡塔尔世界杯上随摩洛哥队表现出色，他应该可以在中场首发出场。蒙扎将没有森西。在世界杯期间，佛罗伦萨在7场友谊赛中赢了6场。例如，他们2-0击败了劲旅德国多特蒙德，6-0击败了劲旅瑞士卢加诺!就在中场休息前，他们在米兰1-2输给了AC米兰，但表现还不错。排名第二的米兰的xG得分为1.89，而佛罗伦萨为1.12。此外，在11月9日，他们以2-1击败了萨勒尼塔纳，他们在xG中创造了2.67分的优异表现，而客队只创造了0.46分。佛罗伦萨也记录了更多的进球尝试(18-4)和射门(7-1)，总传球，完成传球，进攻和危险的攻击- 75-17。

蒙扎本赛季从意乙升级，表现好于预期，但仍被博彩公司高估。他们以16:22的净胜球优势排在联赛第14位。事实上，佛罗伦萨在比赛的各个方面都有优势。我把他们排在实力排名的第16位，这反映了球队的纯粹水平，如果他们降级到第二梯队，我也不会感到惊讶。上赛季，东道主取得了不错的成绩，排名第七，并进入了欧洲联盟联盟小组赛阶段。他们总共得到62分，比分相差59:51。这个赛季的变化并不显著。随着赛季的进展，他们有机会在积分榜上上升，上面列出的前锋也会回归。蒙扎是一支糟糕的客场球队，本赛季在意甲只赢了一场客场比赛，输了五场。他们在这七场比赛中的比分差是5:14。最后我想提一下，根据Transfermarkt.com的数据，佛罗伦萨球队的市场价值明显更高——大约2.14亿欧元。蒙扎球员的身价约为1.14亿，这太高了。在我看来，8500万到8700万更准确!