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芬兰职业体育分析师,已从业20年
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A LUCRATIVE match to bet on! 国王杯阿拉维斯VS巴利亚多

2023-01-04

比赛分析

西班牙杯

已完赛

星期四2023-01-05 04:00

客队巴利亚多LOGO

巴利亚多

解读理由

Alavés VS Valladolid

Alaves welcome Valladolid for this Copa Del Rey (Spanish Cup) clash at Estadio Mendizorrotza in Vitoria-Gasteiz. The hosts play in LaLiga2 and are having a quite strong season. They currently occupy the 5th place with 34 points – just four points behind Las Palmas who currently top the standings. However, I rate them as the 3rd-best team in this league in my power rating that reflects the teams' pure class. They have a very good chance to be promoted back to LaLiga where they were relegated from after last season. At home they have been strong, losing just once in LaLiga2 this season. Their score difference in front of loud and loyal fans is great 12:6. This happened on the 12th of December against a strong team, Levante. 0-2 was the final score but the match was somewhat balanced and could easily have gone either way! In their most recent match they beat Merida AD in Copa Del Rey 1-0 away from home priced around 2.10 to win on the betting market. It was not superb but still a solid performance especially defensively. Before this they had a streak of bad results in LaLiga2 which probably affects the odds way too much here. On the 18th of December they lost to Malaga, a better team than the standings illustrate, 0-1 away from home in a balanced game. The biggest, usually pretty smart bookmakers that accept the biggest bets from customers, see Valladolid as solid favorites and offer them odds of around 2.35 to win during the 90 minutes of play. I cannot agree despite the fact that they do have a slight edge in all areas of the game..

 I do not see a favorite in this match so the smart bet is Alaves with the listed handicap option – a draw would be enough for my fans and I to win again betting on Spanish football! The probability of this result is high – 33%. I expect the hosts to be more motivated to do well in this competition. Valladolid will probably have to fight very hard to avoid relegation. They were promoted to LaLiga for this season and have been worse than the league table suggests. They are in the 16th place with a weak score difference of 13:23. Way from home they have been abysmal losing five of the seven games on the road with a goal difference of 5:15. They have taken 17 points but in terms of expected points would have deserved just 13.04 points! Valladolid are in the 18th place in my power rating in this league of 20 teams total. In their most recent game they did not have much of a chance at home against Real Madrid. They recorded 2.83 in expected goals (xG) - Valladolid's number was 0.44. Furthermore, during the World Cup break they lost three games, played one draw and won one game. Right before the World Cup break they got heavily beaten by Atletic Bilbao away from home. 3-0 was the final score. Poor Valladolid did not manage any shots on goal. Moreover, the host recorded 2.85 in xG – Valladolid's number was just 0.48.

本译文使用有道机器翻译,仅供参考:

Alavés VS巴拉多利德

阿拉维斯欢迎巴利亚多利德参加在维多利亚-加斯泰兹的门迪佐罗扎球场举行的西班牙杯比赛。东道主将在LaLiga2进行比赛,他们本赛季表现相当强劲。他们目前以34分排名第五,仅比目前排名第一的拉斯帕尔马斯少4分。然而,在我的实力评分中,他们在联盟中排名第三,这反映了球队的纯粹水平。他们有很大的机会升回上赛季降级的西甲联赛。他们在主场表现强劲,本赛季只在西甲输了一场。他们在吵闹而忠诚的球迷面前的比分差距是12:6。这场比赛发生在12月12日,对手是一支强队莱万特,最终比分是0-2,但比赛在某种程度上是平衡的,很容易走向任何一方!在他们最近的一场比赛中,他们在国王杯客场1-0击败了梅里达AD,在博彩市场上,他们的获胜价格约为2.10欧元。这并不是一场出色的比赛,但在防守端的表现依然稳固。在此之前,他们在LaLiga2中有一连串糟糕的结果,这可能会对这里的赔率产生太大影响。12月18日,他们在一场平衡的比赛中客场0-1输给了比积分榜上表现更好的马拉加。最大的,通常是非常聪明的博彩公司,他们接受客户的最大赌注,将巴拉多利德视为可靠的热门,并在90分钟的比赛中为他们提供2.35左右的赔率。我不能同意,尽管事实上他们在比赛的所有领域都有轻微的优势。

我看不出这场比赛的热门,所以聪明的赌注是阿拉维斯与列出的障碍选项-平局将足以让我的球迷和我再次赢得西班牙足球的赌注!这个结果的概率很高——33%。我希望东道主能更有动力在比赛中取得好成绩。巴利亚多利德很可能要为保级而战。他们本赛季升入了西甲联赛,但他们的表现比积分榜上显示的还要糟糕。他们以13分23分的微弱差距排在第16位。在客场,他们以5:15的净胜球差输掉了7场比赛中的5场。他们已经拿到了17分,但就预期积分而言,他们只应得13.04分!在这个20支球队的联赛中,巴利亚多利德在我的实力评价中排名第18位。在最近的一场主场对阵皇家马德里的比赛中,他们没有多少机会。他们的预期进球数为2.83个,而巴利亚多利德的预期进球数为0.44个。此外,在世界杯期间,他们输掉了三场比赛,打了一场平局,赢了一场比赛。就在世界杯前,他们在客场被毕尔巴鄂竞技击败。最终比分是3比0。可怜的巴利亚多利德没有射门成功。此外,宿主的xG值为2.85,而Valladolid的xG值仅为0.48。


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