Inter Milan vs Napoli

Inter and Napoli lock horns in this Serie A round 16 clash at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in Milan early Thursday morning. All the football fans and bettors alike have every reason to expect an entertaining, aggressive and possibly a match with a lot of emotion and perhaps several cards too between these two big teams in the 4th-best league in the world!  Both teams have massive offensive power and several goals being scored is on the cards here! Especially Napoli have been on fire offensively this season and have netted the ball 37 times! ” Wow” is all I can say about that! They are having a wildly strong season with 41 points to their account and have won 13/15 of the 15 Serie A games! Moreover, no team has been able to beat them in this league so far this season. In the UEFA Champions League they were very convincing too, winning the group - before  dangerous teams Liverpool and  Dutch Ajax -  with five wins in six games and an excellent score difference of 20:6! They crushed Liverpool 4-1 in Napoli and humiliated Ajax 6-1 in Amsterdam. Inter qualified for the Playoffs as well but were far less impressive than Napoli.. Even so, the biggest and well-known – usually relatively smart bookmakers with the biggest stake limits see Inter as solid favorites offering odds of about 2.35 on them to win. Well, I cannot agree with this even despite the fact that the home advantage is historically substantial in Serie A - bigger than for example in The English Premier League. Furthermore, Inter do have a loud and enthusiastic home crowd and they have been strong at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza this season. The main rationale behind this pick is that the betting market and/ or the recreational bettors who force the bookies to adjust their odds to manage risk fail to recognize just how good Napoli are! Inter also have many more fans and receive more media attention than Napoli which – we can assume - affects the odds too.. I must mention though that Napoli have grabbed more points than they would have deserved in terms of expected points (xPTS) but have undoubtedly been the best team so far and I do not expect their level to drop significantly! Based on my sophisticated, in-depth analysis Napoli are slim favorites here.

Napoli have a 8-point-lead in the standings and are followed by AC Milan. Inter are having a disappointing season and are in the 5th place with 30 points in the pocket. Their defense has been surprisingly shaky and I have, mainly because of this factor, lowered their power rating that reflects the teams' pure class from preseason analysis. They have allowed 22 goals so far and make too many silly mistakes and sometimes look even a bit lazy at crucial moments. They have allowed five more goals than Lecce who are in the 16th place! I expect Napoli to take advantage of this weakness – hopefully scoring multiple goals! Players to watch closely include for example Inter’s Edin Džeko who has netted five goals in 13 Serie A matches against Napoli, but has also received seven yellow cards against them.. As for the visitors, striker Victor Osimhen will be hungry for even more goals – he has punished the opponent seven times in his last six league matches in this league.World Cup winner Lautaro Martinez has finally returned to training after his nation's triumph and wild celebrations in Argentina. Simone Inzaghi, however, expected to favor Belgian Romelu Lukaku – who had a rather lame run in Qatar and seems to be far from his best form.. Veteran striker Edin Dzeko is another overrated – and ageing player but might start this game anyway.. Croatian midfielder Marcelo Brozovic has suffered a calf strain which will keep him out until Inter's Supercoppa Italiana battle with AC Milan later this month. Henrikh Mkhitaryan should be in the starting eleven having overcome a nasty back injury he picked up in a recent friendly versus Sassuolo. As for Napoli, important center-back Amir Rrahmani is probably available again. S. Sirigu is out due to an injury. Napoli are in a long winning streak in Serie A – Inter, on the other hand, lost to Juventus last November before the World Cup break but did record two wins after that. However the 3-2 away win over Atalanta was a bit lucky as the hosts recorded 2.22 in xG – Inter's number was 1.87. Atalanta also recorded many more scoring attempts (19-14) and shots on target – 7-3. The 6-1 win over unorganized - even messy - Bologna was a good performance but the score is still misleading and perhaps excites the betting market too much. Inter created 2.65 and Bologna 0.80 in xG.

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国际米兰vs那不勒斯

周四凌晨，在米兰朱塞佩梅阿扎球场，国际米兰和那不勒斯在意甲第16轮的比赛中交锋。所有的球迷和赌球者都有充分的理由期待这两支世界排名第四的强队之间的比赛，这是一场有趣的，有侵略性的，可能是一场充满感情的比赛，也许还有几张牌!两支球队都有强大的进攻力量，而且在这里有几个进球是可能的!特别是那不勒斯本赛季在进攻端火力全开，已经进球37次!”“哇”是我唯一能说的!他们本赛季取得了41分的好成绩，并且在15场意甲比赛中取得了13/15的胜利!此外，本赛季到目前为止，还没有一支球队能在联赛中击败他们。在欧洲冠军联赛中，他们也很有说服力，小组第一。危险的球队利物浦和;荷兰阿贾克斯;六场比赛赢了五场，比分相差20:6!他们在那不勒斯4-1大胜利物浦，在阿姆斯特丹6-1羞辱阿贾克斯。国米也获得了季后赛资格，但远不如那不勒斯。即便如此，那些最大、最知名、通常相对聪明、拥有最大赌注限制的博彩公司仍将国米视为夺冠大热门，开出了2.35左右的赔率。好吧，我不同意这种说法，尽管事实上意甲的主场优势在历史上是相当可观的——比英超的主场优势更大。此外，国米的主场球迷非常热情，他们本赛季在朱塞佩·梅阿扎球场表现出色。这个选择背后的主要理由是博彩市场和/或娱乐投注者迫使博彩公司调整赔率以管理风险，他们没有认识到那不勒斯有多好!国米也比那不勒斯拥有更多的球迷和更多的媒体关注，我们可以假设这也影响了胜率。我必须提的是，那不勒斯在预期积分(xPTS)方面获得了比他们应得的更多的积分，但毫无疑问，他们是迄今为止最好的球队，我不认为他们的水平会大幅下降!根据我复杂而深入的分析，那不勒斯在这方面胜算不大。

那不勒斯在积分榜上领先8个百分点，AC米兰紧随其后。国米本赛季的表现令人失望，目前积30分排在第五位。他们的防守令人惊讶地不稳定，主要因为这个因素，我从季前赛分析中降低了他们的力量评级，这反映了球队的纯粹水平。到目前为止，他们已经失球22个，犯了太多愚蠢的错误，有时甚至在关键时刻看起来有点懒惰。他们比排在第16位的莱切多丢了5个球!我希望那不勒斯能利用这个弱点——希望能进多个球!值得密切关注的球员包括国际米兰的埃丁·季科，他在与那不勒斯的13场意甲比赛中打进5球，但也吃了7张黄牌。至于客队，前锋维克多·奥西蒙将渴望更多的进球——他在过去的6场联赛中已经罚了对手7次。世界杯冠军劳塔罗·马丁内斯(Lautaro Martinez)终于在国家队的胜利和阿根廷的疯狂庆祝之后恢复了训练。然而，西蒙尼·因扎吉希望比利时人罗梅卢·卢卡库——他在卡塔尔的表现相当糟糕，似乎离他的最佳状态还很远。老将哲科是另一个被高估的老球员，但无论如何都有可能首发。克罗地亚中场马塞洛·布罗佐维奇小腿拉伤，这将使他缺席本月晚些时候国米与AC米兰的意大利超级杯比赛。姆希塔良应该会出现在首发11人名单中，他在最近与萨索洛的友谊赛中背部受伤。至于那不勒斯，重要的中后卫阿米尔·拉赫马尼可能又可以上场了。S.西里古因伤缺阵。那不勒斯在意甲联赛中一直保持连胜——另一方面，国米在去年11月世界杯前输给了尤文图斯，但在那之后取得了两场胜利。然而在客场3-2战胜亚特兰大的比赛中，东道主的xG值为2.22，而国米的xG值为1.87。亚特兰大也记录了更多的得分尝试(19-14)和射正- 7-3。6-1战胜无组织甚至混乱的博洛尼亚是一场不错的表现，但比分仍然具有误导性，可能让博彩市场过于兴奋。国米的xG为2.65，博洛尼亚的xG为0.80。