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外籍分析师
芬兰职业体育分析师,已从业20年
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6/6 latest on this league WON! 英超伯恩茅斯VS水晶宫

2022-12-31

比赛分析

英超

已完赛

星期六2022-12-31 23:00

解读理由

Bournemouth VS Crystal Palace

Bournemouth host Crystal Palace for this English Premier League round 18 clash at Etihad Stadium later Saturday evening Beijing time. However, in reality the visitors have played 15 games and Bournemouth 16. This is the best league on the planet and we have done super well betting on it as my fans and I have won six picks in a row! The biggest, usually pretty sharp bookmakers with largest betting limits see Crystal Palace as favorites and offer odds of around 2.50 for them to travel back to London with all three points.. I  definitely cannot agree with this! With today's expected lineups I see the hosts as marginal favorites. However, even a draw would be enough for us to win once again! The probability of this result is 32%. The hosts are missing D. Brooks and Neto due to a thigh injury. As for Crystal Palace the situation is worse – N. Ferguson, S. Johnstone, McArthur are injured. Furthermore, T. Mitchell and J. Tomkins are out because of a previous red card. Even so, by pure class the visitors are the better team but not by a wide margin! I rate them as the 14th-best team in my power rating that reflects the teams' pure class. The hosts, on the other hand, are in the 16th place in this ranking. In terms of offensive quality Bournemouth even have an edge and have been a very positive surprise this season. The bookies should respect them much more.. Bournemouth  have netted the ball 18 times so far in The Premier League. Their number of expected goals is only 17.11 though. Crystal Palace have not convinced me offensively and have scored just 15 goals. Their offense often lacks speed, structure and passing accuracy near the opponent's goal.. Buying a new, creative striker and/or a talented, hard-working midfielder would be a good idea.. Crystal Palace are not a rich club though.. In terms of expected points (xPTS)the visitors have  been lucky as their actual number of points is 19 and the xPTS is 15.43.

 The visitors are in the 11th place in the standings. Bournemouth have 16 points to their account and occupy the 14th place. They have been slightly lucky in terms of xPTS as this number is 15.03. They have had quite a few defensive problems this season.. This is typical for a newly-promoted team as the pace and opponents' strikers' skill level is much better than in the Championship. Bournemouth can surely improve in this area of the game as the season progresses.. They have conceded 34 goals but their number of expected goals allowed is ”only” 26.02. However, at home they have played well allowing just eight goals – one per game on average. Their fans are very loud and loyal – offering a massive boost for the hosts and I presume the betting market does not give this factor enough emphasis! Crystal Palace, on the other hand, have won just one game on the road in this league so far this season! They were abysmal in their most recent game losing to Fulham 0-3 at home! Poor Palace only recorded 0.39 in expected goals – Fulham's number was 2.87! The statistics reflect the events on the pitch well – the hosts were sleepy, lazy and disorganized. My goodness, Fulham recorded 11 shots on goal – Palace had none! Moreover the visitors created 23 scoring chances – Palace's number was four and the visitors had close to 65% ball possession. They also recorded much more total passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks – 78-11! Bournemouth also lost earlier this week in London but Chelsea were massive favorites – priced below 1.40 on the betting market to win. Chelsea did deserve the win  - 2-0 was the final score - but the visitors played a decent game recording 0.54 in xG – Chelsea's number was 1.74. Even so, Bournemouth even recorded  more attacks (!) and Chelsea only created one more shot on goal - 5-4. Lastly I want to mention that  Gary O'Neil has been appointed as the hosts' boss on a permanent basis during the World Cup break which is a good indicator and may boost their already good team spirit!

本译文使用有道机器翻译,仅供参考:

伯恩茅斯VS水晶宫

北京时间周六晚些时候,伯恩茅斯主场迎战水晶宫,他们将在阿蒂哈德球场进行英超联赛第18轮的比赛。然而,事实上客队踢了15场比赛,伯恩茅斯踢了16场。这是地球上最好的联赛,我和我的球迷已经连续赢得了六个选秀权,我们在这方面做得非常好!最大的、通常相当精明的博彩公司拥有最大的投注限额,他们认为水晶宫是最受欢迎的,并为他们提供约2.50的赔率,让他们带着全部三分返回伦敦。小姐:绝对不能同意!从今天的阵容来看,我认为东道主是最不受欢迎的球队。然而,即使是平局也足以让我们再次获胜!这个结果的概率是32%。东道主布鲁克斯和内托因大腿受伤缺席比赛。至于水晶宫,情况更糟——弗格森、约翰斯通和麦克阿瑟都受伤了。此外,T.米切尔和J.汤姆金斯因为之前的红牌而缺席比赛。即便如此,客队在级别上是更好的球队,但差距并不大!在我的实力评分中,我把他们排在第14位,这反映了球队的纯粹水平。另一方面,东道主排在第16位。在进攻质量方面,伯恩茅斯甚至有优势,本赛季是一个非常积极的惊喜。博彩公司应该更加尊重他们。Bournemouth 到目前为止,他已经在英超联赛中18次破门。但他们的预期进球数只有17.11个。水晶宫在进攻端并没有让我信服,他们只进了15个球。他们的进攻经常缺乏速度、结构和在对手球门附近传球的准确性。买一个新的,有创造力的前锋和/或一个有天赋的,勤奋的中场将是一个好主意。水晶宫不是一个富有的俱乐部。在期望积分(xPTS)方面,访问者有 幸运的是,他们的实际得分是19分,xPTS是15.43分。

客队的名次排在第11位。伯恩茅斯积16分,排在第14位。他们在xPTS方面有点幸运,因为这个数字是15.03。这个赛季他们的防守出现了不少问题。这对于一支刚升班马的球队来说是很典型的,因为他们的速度和对手的前锋技术水平都比英冠联赛好得多。随着赛季的进展,伯恩茅斯肯定会在这方面有所提高。他们已经丢了34个球,但他们的预期失球数“只有”26.02个。然而,在主场他们表现不错,只进了8个球——平均每场1个。他们的球迷非常吵闹和忠诚——为东道主提供了巨大的支持,我猜博彩市场没有给予这个因素足够的重视!另一方面,水晶宫本赛季到目前为止只在联赛中赢了一场比赛!他们最近在主场0-3输给富勒姆的比赛简直糟透了!可怜的宫殿只有0.39个预期进球,富勒姆的数字是2.87个!统计数据很好地反映了球场上的情况——主队昏昏欲睡、懒惰且没有组织。我的天啊,富勒姆记录了11次射门,而皇宫一次都没有!此外,客队创造了23次进球机会——宫殿队的进球机会是4次,客队的控球率接近65%。他们还记录了更多的总传球、完成传球、进攻和危险进攻——78-11!伯恩茅斯本周早些时候在伦敦也输了,但切尔西是最受欢迎的球队——在博彩市场上,切尔西赢球的价格低于1.40。切尔西的胜利当之无愧。- 2-0是最终比分-但是客队踢得不错,xG为0.54 -切尔西为1.74。即便如此,伯恩茅斯还是打出了更多的进攻,而切尔西只多创造了一次射门机会——5-4。最后我想提一下,加里·奥尼尔已经被任命为东道主在世界杯期间的永久主教练,这是一个很好的指示,可能会提升他们已经很好的团队精神!


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