Cadiz VS Almeria

Cadiz and Almeria lock horns in this LaLiga round 15 clash at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla early Saturday morning Beijing time. This the second-best league – after The English Premier - on the planet in my view, but we cannot expect a particularly high-level or entertaining match here between these relatively low teams.. However, the goal is to make a long-term profit for my fans and myself! We have done extremely well betting on LaLiga winning 17/20 of the latest picks - on Thursday as well.Once again I think the odds here are incorrect.. Indeed, the biggest, usually pretty smart bookmakers see Cadiz as solid favorites offering them odds around 2.30 to take all three points. I struggle to understand this as Cadiz are seriously a weak team.. Let's take a look at why I think so.. Only Elche are worse in my opinion in this league with a total of 20 teams. I believe even buying new players – or hiring a new coach - will not save Cadiz from relegation to LaLiga2 where they belong in terms of quality of players, squad's total market value and financial resources. According to a well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com, the hosts' players have a total market value of 61.90 million euros. Even this low number by LaLiga standards is too high in my opinion! I would set the number at around 48-50 million. At least four players are over-valued. The total market value can, of course, sometimes be misleading but is still a pretty good indicator of a team's level on the pitch.. The football (player) market is, after all, a global one! The bookmakers and professional bettors pay more and more attention to teams' total market values nowadays. Cadiz lack quality for this level in all areas of the game! They have netted the ball just nine times in LaLiga which is the lowest number in this league. Their offense lacks basically everything: speed, passing accuracy, structure and creativity. Their strikers and midfielders are also not skilled enough individually and their attacks are often way too predictable making it easy for the opponent to successfully defend. In terms of expected goals(xG) they would have deserved 10.22 goals.

Cadiz have grabbed just 11 points which is 2.09 points more than then the expected points (xPTS) would suggest. To make it worse for Cadiz - their defense is very leaky and often unorganized! Even the great fighting spirit does not seem to be quite enough at this level. They have allowed almost two goals per match – 26 to be precise and their number of expected goals allowed(xGA) is even bigger - 29.54. The home advantage is there but Cadiz are still far from a strong home team! Indeed, they have won just one game at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla in LaLiga this season and their score difference in front of their fans is bad – 5:13. They are often quite nervous and take unnecessary risks in an attempt to score and entertain the crowd. Almeria have been away from home though, but we must not give this factor too much emphasis as they would have deserved more points on the road.. Mainly due to both teams ineffective offense the goal expectancy in this game is lower than the betting market estimates and the draw would not surprise anyone. The probability for under total 2.5 goals to be scored is 66% and for the draw 33%. Indeed, Almeria have scored just 16 goals so far – their xG is, in fact even lower, 15.22. They have conceded 22 and xGA 21.22. They currently occupy the 14th place in the standings but I rate them as the 13th-best team in LaLiga in my power ratings that reflect the teams' pure class. They have been much better than I estimated in my in-depth preseason analysis but the bookies just keep underestimating this team with an excellent coach and team spirit - but no true super stars..In my opinion their midfielders should participate more actively in attacking though if they want to dream of a top-10 position at the end of the season.. A new, creative striker would also certainly help.. According to Transfermarkt.com their players have a total market value of 90.90 million which is slightly too low in my view.

Cadiz did win their most recent match against AS Roma, a pretty strong Italian club 3-0 in a friendly game at a neutral location. However, the final score does flatter them.. We must also remember that Roma's M. Vina was sent off in the 38th minute. Before this they lost to Wolverhampton who play in the English Premier League 3-4. In their most recent competitive match they were disappointing and lost to R. Union 2-3 away from home as very clear favorites according to the betting market. It was a Copa Del Rey (Spanish Cup) match and we must remember that R. Union are small team. In LaLiga they have won just one of their latest nine games – and just two in total. The latest win happened on the 29th of October over Atletico Madrid 3-2 at home but it was an undeserved one Indeed, the visitors had almost 60% ball possession and recorded more scoring attempts, total passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks. A. Madrid also created more in expected goals. On the 10th of November Cadiz were okay and lost only 1-2 away from home against Real Madrid but ”Los Blancos” played below their normal level in this match.. Even so, the reigning champions recorded 2.02 in xG – Cadiz's number was only 0.98.

Almeria, on the other hand, played well in three friendly matches during the Word Cup break beating a strong Italian club, Lazio, 2-0 and playing a 1-1 draw against Torino, a pretty strong Italian team. Furthermore, they also beat a decent Scottish team, Hearts, 1-0. They did, however, get beaten by Austrian Sturm Graz (0-1) but still played at a satisfactory level. In LaLiga they have won three of their latest five games and have a 36% chance to travel home with all three points with the expected lineups. Players to watch closely include especially Rubén Sobrino who was the hero in Cádiz’s last match – the win over Atlético Madrid with a goal in the 90+9th minute! Léo Baptistão scored the winning goal in the visitors' most recent LaLiga clash – a 1-0 win home win over Getafe. Cadiz will be without injured J. Garrido and J.Zaldua and I. Alujo (too many yellow cards). J. Cala, V. Chust and D. Gil have suffered from an injury and their situation is unclear at the time of writing this preview Friday morning Beijing time.As for Almeria, Ivan Martos has had a long-term injury and probably will not play. As for Almeria, Ivan Martos has had a long-term injury and probably will not play. The visitors will also be without R. Ely, as the center-back received up two yellow cards to be sent off against Getafe. J. Nieto is also out due to a knee injury.

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

北京时间周六凌晨，在新米兰迪拉球场，加的斯和阿尔梅里亚在西甲第15轮的比赛中对峙。在我看来，这是地球上仅次于英超的第二好联赛，但我们不能指望这些相对较低的球队之间会有一场特别高水平或有趣的比赛。但是，我的目标是为我的粉丝和我自己创造长期的利润!我们对西甲在最近20场比赛中17场获胜的赌注做得非常好，周四也是如此。我再次认为这里的几率是不正确的。事实上，最大的、通常相当聪明的博彩公司认为加的斯是最受欢迎的，他们提供2.30左右的赔率来获得全部三分。我很难理解这一点，因为加的斯真的是一支弱队。让我们来看看为什么我这么认为。在我看来，在这个总共有20支球队的联赛中，只有埃尔切更糟糕。我相信，即使购买新球员或聘请新教练，也无法挽救加的斯从球员质量、球队总市场价值和财政资源方面降级到西甲联赛。据德国知名网站Transfermarkt.com统计，东道主球员的总市值为6190万欧元。在我看来，即使按照西甲联赛的标准，这个数字也太高了!我认为这个数字在4800万到5000万左右。至少有四名球员被高估了。当然，总市值有时会被误导，但它仍然是衡量一支球队在球场上水平的一个很好的指标。毕竟，足球(球员)市场是全球性的!目前，博彩公司和专业投注者越来越重视球队的总市场价值。加的斯在比赛的各个方面都缺乏这种水平的实力!他们在西甲联赛中只进了9次球，这是这个联赛中最少的。他们的进攻基本上缺乏一切:速度、传球精度、结构和创造力。他们的前锋和中场球员个人技术也不够娴熟，他们的进攻往往太容易被对手成功防守。在期望进球数(xG)方面，他们应该得到10.22个进球。

加的斯只获得了11分，比预期的积分(xPTS)多了2.09分。对加的斯来说更糟糕的是，他们的防守漏洞百出，经常没有组织!即使是伟大的战斗精神，在这个水平上似乎也不够。他们每场比赛几乎失球2个——准确地说是26个，他们的预期失球数(xGA)甚至更大——29.54个。主场优势是有的，但加的斯还远远不是一支强大的主场球队!事实上，他们本赛季在西甲联赛中只在新米兰迪拉球场赢了一场比赛，他们在球迷面前的比分差很糟糕——5:13。他们常常非常紧张，冒着不必要的风险试图得分和娱乐观众。阿尔梅里亚虽然远离家乡，但我们不能过于强调这个因素，因为他们应该在客场得到更多的积分。主要由于两队进攻不力，本场比赛的进球预期低于博彩市场的预期，平局不会让任何人感到惊讶。总进球数低于2.5球的概率为66%，平局的概率为33%。事实上，阿尔梅里亚到目前为止只进了16个球，他们的xG甚至更低，为15.22。他们丢了22分，xGA 21.22分。他们目前在积分榜上排名第14位，但在我的实力评分中，他们在西甲联赛中排名第13位，这反映了球队的纯粹水平。他们比我在季前赛深度分析中估计的要好得多，但博彩公司一直低估这支拥有优秀教练和团队精神的球队，但没有真正的超级巨星。在我看来，如果他们想在赛季结束时进入前十，他们的中场应该更积极地参与进攻。一个新的、有创造力的前锋当然也会有所帮助。根据Transfermarkt.com的数据，他们球员的总市值为9090万，在我看来这有点太低了。

加的斯在最近的一场友谊赛中以3:0的比分战胜了实力相当强大的意大利俱乐部罗马。然而，最终的分数确实让他们满意。我们也必须记住罗马的M.维纳在第38分钟被罚下。在此之前，他们在英超联赛中以3-4的比分输给了狼队。在他们最近的一场比赛中，他们令人失望，在客场2-3输给了R. Union，根据博彩市场的说法，他们非常受欢迎。这是一场西班牙国王杯的比赛，我们必须记住R. Union是一支小球队。在西甲联赛中，他们在最近的9场比赛中只赢了一场，总共只赢了两场。最近的一场胜利发生在10月29日主场3比2战胜马德里竞技，但这是一场不应得的胜利。事实上，客队拥有近60%的控球率，记录了更多的进球次数、总传球次数、完成传球次数、进攻和危险进攻。答:马德里也创造了更多的预期进球。11月10日，加的斯还好，在客场1-2输给了皇马，但“白衣军团”在这场比赛中表现低于正常水平。即便如此，卫冕冠军在xG的记录为2.02 -加的斯的数字只有0.98。

另一方面，阿尔梅里亚在世界杯期间的三场友谊赛中表现出色，以2-0击败了意大利强队拉齐奥，并以1-1战平了实力相当强大的意大利球队都灵。此外，他们还以1-0击败了一支实力不错的苏格兰球队哈茨。然而，他们确实被奥地利格拉茨突击队(0-1)击败，但仍然发挥出令人满意的水平。在西甲联赛中，他们在最近的五场比赛中赢了三场，按照预期的阵容，他们有36%的机会带着三分回家。值得密切关注的球员包括Rubén索布里诺，他是Cádiz上一场比赛的英雄——在90+9分钟的比赛中进球战胜Atlético马德里!Léo Baptistão在客队最近的一场西甲联赛中打进制胜球——主场1-0战胜赫塔菲。加的斯将没有受伤的加里多、扎尔杜瓦和阿卢霍(黄牌太多)。卡拉(J. Cala)、楚斯特(V. Chust)和吉尔(D. Gil)受伤了，在北京时间周五上午撰写这篇预告时，他们的情况尚不清楚。至于阿尔梅里亚，伊万·马托斯长期受伤，可能不会参加比赛。至于阿尔梅里亚，伊万·马托斯长期受伤，可能不会参加比赛。客队也将失去埃利，这名中后卫在对阵赫塔菲的比赛中吃到两张黄牌被罚下。J. Nieto也因膝盖受伤退出比赛。