Club Brugge VS Oud Heverlee (Leuven)

Club Brugge welcome Leuven for this Belgian Jupiler League round 18 clash at Jan Breydel Stadion Monday evening Beijing time.There is, of course, no doubt about the fact that the hosts are the favorites here. They definitely have an edge in all areas of the game. The biggest difference – when take a look at the whole season – is in defense. Indeed, Club Brugge have conceded 20 goals (xGA) so far in this league but their number if xGA is 22.13. The visitors, on the other hand, have allowed 26 goals which is marginally more than their xGA. However, worryingly for Brugge their defense has been very far from solid in the recent games. Their opponents have score nine goals in the last four matches.. In terms of offensive quality the hosts' edge is much smaller many football analysts, bookmakers or recreational football bettors probable think. Yes, Club Brugge are a traditional club with a lot of success in the past.. They are also a big club by financial resources.. Even so, They have netted the ball just 34 times in Jupiler Pro League – Genk who currently top the standings with 46 points – have scored 45 goals already.. Leuven have been surprisingly effective offensively this season and their score difference is 30:26. I have been positively surprised by Leuven this season and have significantly raised their power rating that reflects the teams' pure class from my in-depth preseason analysis. Their midfielders have been more creative, strikers more effective and the offensive structure more solid than I would have expected..They currently occupy the 9th place in the standings with 25 points in the pocket. I would not be at all amazed of they were to finish in the top-8 next May and qualify for the UEFA Conference League Group. Last season was a positive one for them as well and they finished in 11th place with 41 points. They were quite frequently under-valued by the bookies and the same seems to be true in this match as well!

The hosts are priced around 1.45 to win by the biggest, usually pretty sharp bookmakers with the largest stakes limits -at least at the time of writing this preview late Sunday evening Beijing time. These odds way too low and i would not be surprised to see the hosts' odds go up - especially in handicap betting as smart monet is expected to pile up on Leuven.. My estimation on Brugge to win is 59% but all my fans and I need to win the pick is for Leuven to avoid losing by more than one goal's difference. The probabilty is 68%. In terms of expected points (xPTS) Leuven would have deserved 27.44 points. Brugge have taken 33 points and are in fourt place which is a big disappointment.. They have not beeb either lucky or unlucky in terms of xPTS. They, very surprisingly, qualified for the Champions League Playoffs so they have had an unsual season as whole. They did play very well in some CL matches but we must remember that they also achieved some kind of ”flow state” in several matches and at the some time the opponent seemed to underestimate them and play below the nornal level. They have now lost three games in a row and have not won any of their latest seven games during the regulation time!

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

布鲁日俱乐部VS乌德赫弗利(鲁汶)

北京时间周一晚上，布鲁日俱乐部在Jan Breydel球场欢迎鲁汶参加比利时Jupiler联赛第18轮的比赛。当然，毫无疑问，东道主在这里是最受欢迎的。他们在比赛的各个方面都有优势。纵观整个赛季，最大的不同在于防守。事实上，布鲁日俱乐部到目前为止在联赛中已经丢了20个球(xGA)，但他们的数字是22.13个。另一方面，客队失球26个，略高于他们的xGA。然而，让布鲁日担心的是，他们的防守在最近的比赛中并不稳固。他们的对手在最近四场比赛中进了九球。在进攻质量方面，东道主的优势要小得多，许多足球分析师、博彩公司或娱乐足球投注者可能会认为。是的，布鲁日俱乐部是一家传统的俱乐部，在过去取得了很多成功。他们也是一个财力雄厚的大俱乐部。即便如此，他们在Jupiler职业联赛中只进了34次球——目前以46分排名第一的Genk已经进了45球。鲁汶本赛季的进攻效率令人惊讶，他们的比分差距是30:26。我对鲁汶本赛季的表现感到非常惊讶，并从我的季前赛深度分析中显著提高了他们的实力评级，这反映了球队的纯粹水平。他们的中场球员更有创造力，前锋更有效率，进攻结构也比我预期的更稳固，他们目前以25分的优势排在积分榜第九。如果他们能在明年5月进入前8名，并获得欧足联联盟小组的资格，我一点也不会感到惊讶。上赛季对他们来说也是一个积极的赛季，他们以41分排名第11位。他们经常被博彩公司低估，在这场比赛中似乎也是如此!

最大的博彩公司(通常是相当精明的博彩公司，有最大的赌注限制)对东道主开价在1.45左右——至少在北京时间周日晚间撰写本文时是这样。这些赔率太低了，如果东道主的赔率上升，我也不会感到惊讶——尤其是在残障投注中，聪明的莫奈预计会在鲁汶下注。我对布鲁日获胜的估计是59%，但我所有的球迷和我都需要赢得选秀权，因为鲁汶要避免输掉超过一个球的差距。概率是68%。在期望积分(xPTS)方面，鲁汶应该得到27.44分。布鲁日已经拿到33分，排在第四，这是一个很大的失望。就xPTS而言，他们既不幸运也不不幸。令人惊讶的是，他们获得了欧冠季后赛的资格，所以他们整个赛季都不寻常。他们在一些联赛中确实打得很好，但我们必须记住，他们也在几场比赛中达到了某种“流状态”，在某些时候，对手似乎低估了他们，表现低于正常水平。他们现在已经连输三场，并且在规定时间内最近的七场比赛中没有赢过一场!