Mechelen welcome Cercle Brugge for this Jupiler Pro League round 18 clash at AFAS-stadion Achter de Kazerne early Saturday morning Beijing time. This league is of pretty good level by European standards and for example Club Brugge qualified for the Playoffs in the UEFA Champions League. 0-0 would be a big surprise but I still see this match as a little more low-scoring than the betting market does. The largest and usually rather sharp bookmakers see this as a 50-50% match offering both teams odds of around 2.60 to win - at least at the time of writing this analysis Friday evening Beijing time.. No, I cannot agree with the bookies and see the hosts as the favorites! They have a 43% chance to win and with the recommended +0.5 goals handicap option my fans and I have a 73% chance to win. Indeed, with today's expected lineups I do not see any difference between Mechelen and Cercle Brugge. The hosts will be missing midfielder Jordi Vanlerberghe,26. As for the visitors the situation is worse – Brazilian David and Lithuanian Utkus have a knee injury. Moreover, Portuguese midfielder Leonardo Da Silva Lopes,24, is suspended because of a previous red card. The standings is probably the main reason behind the too high odds offered on the betting market on the hosts here. Cercle Brugge have 25 points to their account but in terms of expected points (xPTS) they would have deserved only 22.03 points. They occupy the 9th place in the standings but I do not expect them to finish in the top-10 at the end of the season unless they get lucky or buy new players.. In terms of expected goals allowed (xGA) they should have conceded 27.11 goals but the actual number is just 24 goals. As for the hosts they are in 13th place in this league with 18 points on the pocket. In terms of xPTS they would, however, have deserved more. They have had some defensive problems this season but their excellent coach Defour has – together with his players – been able to significantly improve in this area of the game which has helped that a lot. They have allowed just one goal in their most recent four games. This happened on the 14th of this month in a friendly against a pretty strong Spanish team, Espanyol. 1-1 was the final score. Even so, they have conceded 30 goals so far in this league but the XGA is just 26.89..

Especially the hosts are in great form! They defeated Seraing at home in their most recent match 1-0 but could easily have been more clear in their favor. They only had 52% ball possession but allowed the offensively poor visitors to control the ball for a surprisingly long periods of time. Even so, Mechelen recorded many more scoring chances (13-6) and shots on target (6-3) as well as more attacks and dangerous attacks.  On the 9th of November they crushed  Lokeren-Temse 5-0 away from home in a Belgian Cup game proving that they do have offensive power! They were bif favorites on this match but it was still a great performance! Mechelen have now taken four wins and one draw in their most recent five games and the bookies should absolutely respect them more! Let's remember that last season they finished in 7th place after the regular season with 52 points – the visitors, on the other hand, ended up in the 10th place with 45 points in their pocket.. Not very much has changed for this season in terms of pure class..Cercle Brugge have taken three wins in their and recorded one loss and a draw in their last five matches. In their most recent match they deservedly lost to Gent in a Belgian Cup battle 0-2 – after extra time though. Before this they were very lucky to win 1-0 away from home against St.Truiden. Indeed, the hosts had 56% ball possession and recorded many more scoring chances (12-6) as well as more total passes, completed passes, more attacks and dangerous attacks. I was quite disappointed by this performance. They should significantly improve their offense that lacked speed, passing accuracy and structure in their most recent two games – or get lucky – to win this match..

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梅赫伦欢迎布鲁日参加北京时间周六凌晨在阿克特德卡泽内afas球场举行的Jupiler职业联赛第18轮比赛。以欧洲标准来看，这个联赛的水平相当不错，比如布鲁日俱乐部就进入了欧冠联赛的季后赛，0-0会是一个很大的惊喜，但我仍然认为这场比赛的比分比博彩市场上的要低一些。规模最大、通常相当精明的博彩公司认为这场比赛的赔率为50-50%，两队的获胜赔率都在2.60左右——至少在北京时间周五晚上撰写本文时是这样。不，我不同意博彩公司的看法，认为主持人是最受欢迎的!他们有43%的机会获胜，加上推荐的+0.5个进球的障碍选项，我的球迷和我有73%的机会获胜。事实上，从今天的阵容来看，我看不出梅赫伦和布鲁日有什么不同。东道主将失去26岁的中场球员约尔迪·范勒伯格。客队的情况更糟，巴西人大卫和立陶宛人乌特库斯膝伤。此外，24岁的葡萄牙中场莱昂纳多·达席尔瓦·洛佩斯因为之前的一张红牌而被停赛。排名可能是博彩市场对东道主提供过高赔率的主要原因。布鲁日获得了25分，但就预期积分(xPTS)而言，他们只应得22.03分。他们目前在积分榜上排名第九，但我不认为他们能在赛季末进入前十，除非他们运气好或者买了新球员。在预期失球(xGA)方面，他们应该丢了27.11个球，但实际数字只有24个。至于东道主，他们以18分的成绩排在联赛第13位。然而，就xPTS而言，他们本应获得更多。本赛季他们的防守出现了一些问题，但他们出色的教练德福和他的球员们在这方面取得了显著的进步，这对他们有很大的帮助。在最近的四场比赛中，他们只丢了一个球。这发生在本月14日的一场友谊赛中，对手是实力相当强大的西班牙人队，最终比分是1-1。即便如此，到目前为止，他们在这个联赛中已经丢了30个球，但XGA只有26.89球。

尤其是东道主的状态非常好!在最近的一场比赛中，他们在主场1-0击败了西莱恩，但他们本可以轻松地获得更明显的优势。他们只有52%的控球率，但却让进攻能力差的客队在很长一段时间内控制住了球。即便如此，梅赫伦还是创造了更多的得分机会(13胜6负)和射正(6胜3负)，以及更多的进攻和危险进攻。11月9日，他们粉碎了Lokeren-Temse在比利时杯客场5-0的比赛证明了他们的进攻能力!他们在这场比赛中是最受欢迎的，但这仍然是一场伟大的表现!梅赫伦在最近的五场比赛中取得了四胜一平的成绩，博彩公司绝对应该更加尊重他们!让我们记住上赛季他们在常规赛结束后以52分排名第七，而客队则以45分排名第十。本赛季的联赛水平没有太大变化，布鲁日在最近5场比赛中取得了3胜1负的战绩。在他们最近的一场比赛中，他们在比利时杯的比赛中以0:2不敌根特——尽管是在加时赛之后。在此之前，他们非常幸运地在客场1-0战胜了圣特鲁登。事实上，东道主的控球率为56%，并且记录了更多的得分机会(12-6)，以及更多的总传球、完成传球、更多的进攻和危险进攻。我对这次表演很失望。在最近的两场比赛中，他们的进攻缺乏速度，传球的准确性和结构，他们应该大幅提高他们的进攻，或者幸运地赢得这场比赛。