In my opinion Maritimo have really good chances to make at least one point in today's match up.

For sure Maritimo coming for this game without any fear - they won last two matches in a row at this stadium. In overall Maritimo have solid record against Rio Ave as they didn't lost in 17 of last 25 matches against them in all competitions.

If You look only on the table, situation looks good for hosts - they are on 10th place. Maritimo is in relegation zone, only one team in whole league have less points.. But if we look deeper, this situation is extremely undeserved.

Rio Ave scored 16 goals so far, but according to the expected goals scored model they should score only 10.5 and this is the worst result in whole league. On the other hand Maritimo scored only 8 goals, but according to the same model they should score 15.6.

Both teams looked horrible at the back according to the expected goals conceded model. Maritimo should concede 25 (27 conceded), Rio Ave 21.6 (18 conceded).

I have to trust the long term process of models and double chance on away side is must play bet here.

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

在我看来，在今天的比赛中，马蒂莫有很好的机会至少得一分。

当然，马里蒂莫没有任何担心，他们在这个球场连续赢了两场比赛。总的来说，Maritimo在与里约热内卢Ave的比赛中有稳定的记录，因为他们在所有赛事中25场比赛中有17场没有输球。

如果你只看榜单，对东道主来说情况不错——他们排在第10位。马里蒂莫在降级区，整个联赛中只有一支球队的积分比我们少。但如果我们深入观察，这种情况是极不合理的。

到目前为止，Ave已经进了16个球，但是根据预期进球数模型，他们应该只进10.5个球，这是整个联赛中最差的结果。另一方面，马里蒂莫只进了8球，但根据同样的模型，他们应该得到15.6球。

根据预期失球模型，两队的后场表现都很糟糕。马里蒂莫应该丢25球(丢27球)，里约热内卢Ave 21.6球(丢18球)。

我不得不相信模型的长期过程和客场的双重机会是必须在这里打赌的。